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Q & A | 07/01/2008 12:05 pm

Nobody, Including Barack Obama Himself, Expected It

© AP

Editor’s Note: Gail Collins is a columnist for The New York Times.

LESLEY: So, Gail, I want to say right up front that I love reading your column …

GAIL: Oh, thank you.

LESLEY: … especially on Saturdays because it’s an unhurried morning. You always – almost always – make me chuckle. And then you come around and hit me with an especially kind of pungent insight, especially about this election. So I’m wondering why you think so many of the pundits got so much about this campaign wrong this time. Was it the nature of the candidates – you know, the woman, the African-American, the maverick, the evangelical? Or is there a problem within the punditry itself?

GAIL: Since the creation of 24-hour TV, just the necessity of talking so much really does drain everybody … there’s only so much you can say. And there’s not really much great desire for a half-hour talk about competing health-care plans. I mean, it’s just this sort of general talk about how the elections are going. And so people are kind of required, I think, to push themselves a lot more than they used to be.

LESLEY: And there’s no time to think. I mean, the minute you’ve finished saying one thing they’re calling you to come right in and talk some more.

GAIL: Yeah, you’re basically talking about the same thing over and over again. So you do sort of create general, you know, conventional wisdoms. But that said, this has been a really weird campaign. I was certainly wrong about absolutely everything. I’ve always presumed that the thing that everybody thinks is going to happen is usually, actually, unfortunately the thing that happens. And nobody, including Hillary Clinton, thought Barack — I’m not even sure Barack Obama thought Barack Obama was going to catch the way he did. I mean, he wasn’t that great a candidate when he started out. He was a good candidate, but nobody who you would say, "My gosh, this person is so spectacular right now that he doesn’t need to wait. He should — this is it." But, last summer and early fall, he just caught on fire and it took everybody by surprise. And his organization and the excitement of people in the caucus states took everybody by surprise. So that one —

LESLEY: Yeah, it took them by surprise, but he was ready.

GAIL: Yeah.

LESLEY: Which is different from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which wasn’t ready for whatever came their way.

GAIL: I, like everybody else, has said, "Well, you know, the problem was she didn’t organize in the caucus states well." Those early caucus states, where you don’t have a general election, you just have the people who are willing to get up and go to the local school and vote. They’re the only ones who matter. And she didn’t organize that well in those states. But that said, to win in those states generally you need really committed, excited people behind you. It’s not necessarily the same kind of voter who goes out for a regular primary election. They’re people who are really dedicated, who are really willing to stand in long lines and give up their Saturday afternoon. And so I’m not sure, even, if she was well organized; that her support, which tends to be very broad but not necessarily all that deep, could have beaten his really, really, really excited, intense supporters.

LESLEY: Well, having admitted that you got a lot wrong, let’s give you an opportunity to either be wrong again —

179 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

~ countrywoman ~
Hello Frank

I have been thinking about your commentary from earlier, I want to thank you for your service, and for speaking up about “swift-boating.” This vile practice is often smugly referred to as “dirty tricks,” but many of us realize the depth of the damage it can do. I listened to a Veteran, who was there with Kerry and knows the truth, discuss this issue on the radio recently. Four years later he, along with his family and comrades, is still suffering from the effects of that hateful malicious campaign of lies. I am a Vietnam Veteran’s widow who watched my beautiful husband be re-victimized by the war as the “swift-boat” publicity exacerbated his PTSD and robbed him of peace during his last year of life. Smearing great brave patriots, re-opening wounds for soldiers who had served with honor, then gloating and patting themselves on the back for their evil success in the “election” of GWB……I have no words to express my contempt. I do, however, have hope, and faith in my fellow citizens, that we will NOT tolerate this immoral political technique again…..at least not quietly! Just as you and others have spoken up, so must we all. Thanks again.
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/02/2008 2:54 am
Frank Peterson
Oh my dear lady they did a great deal of damage in so many more ways than just the political. And it incenses me that they took brave men and victimized them for political reasons. I was in the company of brave men and I know what that entailed, the sacrifices they endured and the damage the war did to a generation of brave men and women. I do have words to express my contempt for those that denigrated a good man and the men he served with, but unfortunately they are all unprintable on this site. And I though I seek no thanks and never will for very personal reasons for my service from most people, I thank you for them. Words fail to express my feelings at what happened to your husband in his last year. These unconscionable acts as you say must not be allowed to happen again.
By Frank Peterson on 07/02/2008 6:35 am
beth willis
Countrywoman, my heart goes out to you . I spent last week in a facility that also treated military personnel returning from Iraq. Babies, these young soldiers were so young and in such emotional pain. Well, perhaps I will be able to share more with the lovely people on this site as I get stronger……….not for me, but for all of us who have seen the wreckage of young souls and need to get that story out. Peace and grace
By beth willis on 07/02/2008 1:10 pm
Star Lawrence
Axelrod is a lobbyist.
By Star Lawrence on 07/02/2008 9:58 am
doll lady
Frank…I wasn’t around to participate in the conversation but I can see that it was very enlightening. I also want to give my thanks to you for serving our country. A salute to the country’s best. As we go into our Independence Day weekend, we should all salute the men and women of this country who have kept us independent and a “Free” country. From the early fathers of this country to the current day. God Bless America, the Land of the Free. Let Freedom Ring!
By doll lady on 07/02/2008 7:29 am
Bella Mia
1) A significant part of the animus towards John Kerry by vets was that after he came home from his 4 months in Vietnam, not only did he pretend to throw his medals away, (they weren’t his) he publicly and officially excoriated the reputation of the military while they were still at war. HIs testimony led to the US pulling funding fromVietnam which led to 2 million deaths in Cambodia. (Our neighbor, a former South Vietnamese colonel, loved America, and was able to escape here with his 4 small children while his wife was held hostage for 15 years by the Communists after attempting to escape prior to the fall of Saigon, with their handicapped son. I was there for the reunion. I heard the stories from the Vietnamese perspective.) 2) The last 20 years, I have been actively involved in politics on the local level, but that was in the west. Now living in the east I find that the Democrats here are obsessed with race. In 20 years, I never discussed it with my husband, or my family, or dinner guests. The focus of conversations has always been directed at economic issues, or character issues. When we once talked about candidate Marion Barry, I was astounded that people would elect someone with a criminal record, and then we discussed his charisma, not his race. Race is a red herring. 3) Likewise with Obama, I cannot understand how someone with 150 days of legislative experience can even remotely be considered for the position as the most powerful man in the world. Obama’s deliberate withholding of support for aborted infants born alive, is another character issue, along with his ties to the Chicago political machine which has created the highest local taxes in the country, AND created gun-banned “slaughter zones” where the criminals have an unfair advantage over law abiding citizens who have no right to defend themselves with firearms. It is unfair and unprofessional of the Obama campaign to insinuate that criticisms of his positions and reasons for apprehensions about his candidacy are race-based, when often they are not. My father, 67, a Reagan democrat, is voting for McCain because he says that he, (and his friends) are not comfortable with Obama’s lack of military experience, and isolationist tendencies.
By Bella Mia on 07/02/2008 8:34 am
Marjorie C.
Bella Mia: Thank you and amen. The abortion stance makes me cringe.
By Marjorie C. on 07/02/2008 10:28 am
sibelle daubigne
bella Mia, i totally agree! Tell your father ,no vote for me! Sad sad sad !
By sibelle daubigne on 07/02/2008 12:52 pm
Marjorie C.
Sibelle, nice to see your voice.
By Marjorie C. on 07/02/2008 3:21 pm
Star Lawrence
The Arizona Republic ran a cartoon on July 4th depicting a tiny little Obama standing in front of a Decl of Independence reading:”All men are created equal” and saying, “I guess we will see on Election Day.” So far, they have had to print two irate letters saying since when is not voting for this man a sign of racism or not believing in American ideals?
By Star Lawrence on 07/07/2008 12:24 pm
Bonnie D-Z
Grazie, Bella.
By Bonnie D-Z on 07/05/2008 4:46 pm