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Q & A | 07/01/2008 12:05 pm

Nobody, Including Barack Obama Himself, Expected It

© AP

Editor’s Note: Gail Collins is a columnist for The New York Times.

LESLEY: So, Gail, I want to say right up front that I love reading your column …

GAIL: Oh, thank you.

LESLEY: … especially on Saturdays because it’s an unhurried morning. You always – almost always – make me chuckle. And then you come around and hit me with an especially kind of pungent insight, especially about this election. So I’m wondering why you think so many of the pundits got so much about this campaign wrong this time. Was it the nature of the candidates – you know, the woman, the African-American, the maverick, the evangelical? Or is there a problem within the punditry itself?

GAIL: Since the creation of 24-hour TV, just the necessity of talking so much really does drain everybody … there’s only so much you can say. And there’s not really much great desire for a half-hour talk about competing health-care plans. I mean, it’s just this sort of general talk about how the elections are going. And so people are kind of required, I think, to push themselves a lot more than they used to be.

LESLEY: And there’s no time to think. I mean, the minute you’ve finished saying one thing they’re calling you to come right in and talk some more.

GAIL: Yeah, you’re basically talking about the same thing over and over again. So you do sort of create general, you know, conventional wisdoms. But that said, this has been a really weird campaign. I was certainly wrong about absolutely everything. I’ve always presumed that the thing that everybody thinks is going to happen is usually, actually, unfortunately the thing that happens. And nobody, including Hillary Clinton, thought Barack — I’m not even sure Barack Obama thought Barack Obama was going to catch the way he did. I mean, he wasn’t that great a candidate when he started out. He was a good candidate, but nobody who you would say, "My gosh, this person is so spectacular right now that he doesn’t need to wait. He should — this is it." But, last summer and early fall, he just caught on fire and it took everybody by surprise. And his organization and the excitement of people in the caucus states took everybody by surprise. So that one —

LESLEY: Yeah, it took them by surprise, but he was ready.

GAIL: Yeah.

LESLEY: Which is different from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which wasn’t ready for whatever came their way.

GAIL: I, like everybody else, has said, "Well, you know, the problem was she didn’t organize in the caucus states well." Those early caucus states, where you don’t have a general election, you just have the people who are willing to get up and go to the local school and vote. They’re the only ones who matter. And she didn’t organize that well in those states. But that said, to win in those states generally you need really committed, excited people behind you. It’s not necessarily the same kind of voter who goes out for a regular primary election. They’re people who are really dedicated, who are really willing to stand in long lines and give up their Saturday afternoon. And so I’m not sure, even, if she was well organized; that her support, which tends to be very broad but not necessarily all that deep, could have beaten his really, really, really excited, intense supporters.

LESLEY: Well, having admitted that you got a lot wrong, let’s give you an opportunity to either be wrong again —

179 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

~ countrywoman ~
Thanks for the decrypting Lorraine,

A rose…..what fun! So many sweet creative ways to communicate with a keyboard.
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/02/2008 3:46 pm
Peg O my heart
Ki - it is shorthand for “in my opinion”. IMHO is “in my humble opinion”.
By Peg O my heart on 07/01/2008 3:28 pm
Diana T
So what’s wrong with writing “in my opinion” in plain words we can understand?? This isn’t text message; the keyboard is full size. Frankly, it drives me up a wall when I see this in my emails, for instance, and I have to sit here and figure the meaning out.
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 4:42 pm
~ countrywoman ~
Hi Diana, I wonder if this all started with the young’uns who text-message until their thumbs atrophy, and who are always looking for a shortcut the “elders” won’t understand. I’m with you, I prefer a read without “speed-bumps.”
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/01/2008 4:58 pm
phyllis Doyle Pepe
I am laughing out loud here, Diana–––notice that I spelled that out–––thanks for my after dinner chuckle.
By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 07/01/2008 5:43 pm
Peg O my heart
Diana - T’aint nothing wrong with it. Some people simply like to abbreviate no matter the size of the keyboard. I guess size DOESN’T matter after all :-) I do love the written word and the English language is beautiful. If I am in a hurry, I have been known to use acronyms. It’s just another tool, in my mind. Anyway, it doesn’t bother or offend me and if I don’t know what something means, I look it up and am always happy to learn something new.
By Peg O my heart on 07/01/2008 8:03 pm
DeBúrca obj
Agreed. Both race and gender issues have been, if not created by the media, certainly blown way out of proportion by the media. The fact is, we have no more “news media”. Once it was absorbed into the entertainment dept. it all became about ratings, and facts, information and real issues can be dull to many people.
By DeBúrca obj on 07/07/2008 9:02 pm
Dr. Mark Klein
Frank’s right. The mindlessness of the political debate, inane enertainment programing, Netflix and high speed internet got me to cancel my cable t.v. service.
By Dr. Mark Klein on 07/01/2008 6:47 pm
Marjorie C.
But now, Obama is telling audiences that he expects the Republicans to play the race card … ” The one who has played the race card to the limit is Obama himself. Why is he not a white candidate or a candidate of mixed race? Obama was appalled at what Geraldine Ferraro said because he knew it was the truth. In what way is he better than John Edwards or Bill Richardson? The fact is, he isn’t, and in most ways he’s less accomplished. The race card is Obama’s gimmick. He knows it and we know it.
By Marjorie C. on 07/01/2008 11:39 am
Star Lawrence
He slides it in there…like the line in his speech about the blood of white slaveowners running in the veins of his precious daughters.
By Star Lawrence on 07/01/2008 12:01 pm
Marjorie C.
Star: And he slides it in there, often. I didn’t hear the speech you reference, but I think the line is pretty ugly. What idea do his children come away with when they hear that flagrant racism?
By Marjorie C. on 07/01/2008 12:33 pm
sanders c
I think we are having a political “Elvis” moment—a moment (like 1956) when the culture experiences a seismic shift and is changed forever. Young people have never know anything but cynical white Christian males as President. And some of us geezers also hunger for a fresh, inspiring voice and a President who can complete a sentence. IMO, all elections are a response to the previous administration. Tricky Dick Nixon (sorry, Monica Crowley) begat Squeaky Clean Jimmy Carter. Inarticulate George w. Bush begat a candidate with impressive communcation skills and rock-star charisma. (Last time I looked, communication skills were still part of the job description for Leader of the Free World). I belive our country is more color-blind than we think. Remember that one of the most powerful women on the planet is over 50, overweight and Black. (Oprah). All that having been said, I hope he chooses Hillary and I also love Michelle’s fashion sense. All revolutions need iconic outfits!!! :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5JALwwaASg&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjG3xPxK4Bw
By sanders c on 07/01/2008 12:58 pm
Star Lawrence
It was in his “race speech.” Not widely soundbited…
By Star Lawrence on 07/01/2008 2:17 pm
Marjorie C.
Star: Makes sense. That was supposed to have been one of his most heartfelt speeches… and I missed it.
By Marjorie C. on 07/01/2008 3:22 pm
Frank Peterson
He may ‘slide it in’ but he also get it slapped in his face by all the reportage that’s going on too.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 5:22 pm