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Q & A | 07/01/2008 12:05 pm

Nobody, Including Barack Obama Himself, Expected It

© AP

Editor’s Note: Gail Collins is a columnist for The New York Times.

LESLEY: So, Gail, I want to say right up front that I love reading your column …

GAIL: Oh, thank you.

LESLEY: … especially on Saturdays because it’s an unhurried morning. You always – almost always – make me chuckle. And then you come around and hit me with an especially kind of pungent insight, especially about this election. So I’m wondering why you think so many of the pundits got so much about this campaign wrong this time. Was it the nature of the candidates – you know, the woman, the African-American, the maverick, the evangelical? Or is there a problem within the punditry itself?

GAIL: Since the creation of 24-hour TV, just the necessity of talking so much really does drain everybody … there’s only so much you can say. And there’s not really much great desire for a half-hour talk about competing health-care plans. I mean, it’s just this sort of general talk about how the elections are going. And so people are kind of required, I think, to push themselves a lot more than they used to be.

LESLEY: And there’s no time to think. I mean, the minute you’ve finished saying one thing they’re calling you to come right in and talk some more.

GAIL: Yeah, you’re basically talking about the same thing over and over again. So you do sort of create general, you know, conventional wisdoms. But that said, this has been a really weird campaign. I was certainly wrong about absolutely everything. I’ve always presumed that the thing that everybody thinks is going to happen is usually, actually, unfortunately the thing that happens. And nobody, including Hillary Clinton, thought Barack — I’m not even sure Barack Obama thought Barack Obama was going to catch the way he did. I mean, he wasn’t that great a candidate when he started out. He was a good candidate, but nobody who you would say, "My gosh, this person is so spectacular right now that he doesn’t need to wait. He should — this is it." But, last summer and early fall, he just caught on fire and it took everybody by surprise. And his organization and the excitement of people in the caucus states took everybody by surprise. So that one —

LESLEY: Yeah, it took them by surprise, but he was ready.

GAIL: Yeah.

LESLEY: Which is different from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which wasn’t ready for whatever came their way.

GAIL: I, like everybody else, has said, "Well, you know, the problem was she didn’t organize in the caucus states well." Those early caucus states, where you don’t have a general election, you just have the people who are willing to get up and go to the local school and vote. They’re the only ones who matter. And she didn’t organize that well in those states. But that said, to win in those states generally you need really committed, excited people behind you. It’s not necessarily the same kind of voter who goes out for a regular primary election. They’re people who are really dedicated, who are really willing to stand in long lines and give up their Saturday afternoon. And so I’m not sure, even, if she was well organized; that her support, which tends to be very broad but not necessarily all that deep, could have beaten his really, really, really excited, intense supporters.

LESLEY: Well, having admitted that you got a lot wrong, let’s give you an opportunity to either be wrong again —

179 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

phyllis Doyle Pepe
And I bet you don’t even wear a slip, you clever girl. If Star doesn’t want her wine, I’ll take it or better yet, let’s all have a glass and discuss what’s happening in Abu Dhabi.
By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 07/01/2008 5:59 pm
~ countrywoman ~
Oops…..busted! Although I did wear a dress with a lining back in the ’90s once.
Imbibe and converse….count me in!
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/01/2008 6:19 pm
Star Lawrence
I never turn down a nice glass of wine! Thanks.
By Star Lawrence on 07/02/2008 9:47 am
Sarah N.
you can tip toe around it all you want - just dont put a name to the comments that are being made. some have a difficult time hearing the opinions of others (who have had to endure theirs).
By Sarah N. on 07/02/2008 5:33 am
Dorothy S
The whole interview was sooooo interesting. Thanks. Why Barack and not Hillary? maybe….the 30-somethings and under voted. This changes all the polling data. Younger folks expect women and also expect brown, yellow, black, tan, red, and all hues and shades to succeed based on what their personality,education, and point of view brings to the table. Both are intelligent , caring, articulate individuals. Both were supported by a huge number of votes. The November election between R and D will depend on this same previously non-voting group to vote if a dem. is going to win. Those who supported Hillary will need to vote for Barack if he is to win. Wiil these same people vote? That is the question in my mind.
By Dorothy S on 07/01/2008 1:56 pm
Dorothy S
That sounded too harsh. Hillary is an amazing woman. The sound-bites against her in the 24/7 media were awful. I miss hearing her speeches. Yes, I am a political junky. . I struggled with my own vote for months before the primary day. Way back,before Barack even declared, my family was telling me that an obama-clinton ticket was a crazy idea. My own twenty- year- old daughter tried to convince me that it was a problem to have two Bush and two Clinton family members as President. Listening to Barack on Charlie Rose, before he declared, stayed clearly in my mind. His desire to think things through and use diplomacy. He seems honest. Hoping he stays honest. Stay strong Barack. Hoping Hillary continues to amaze and dazzle in the political realm and get some things passed throught the Senate. Go Hillary.
By Dorothy S on 07/01/2008 2:44 pm
Brooklyn Gal
I enjoy reading the Collins/Brooks conversation in the Times. However, I take all of these pundits with a grain of salt. Obama still needs to speak to the real issues rather than his patriotism. I am waiting for debates and town hall meetings between the 2 candidates. It’s the only thing that will get independents making a choice and people on the fence off. And, I think Obama will make gains. I have yet to agree with many of McCains proposals. And, the only thing I read here from McCain supporters is “experience”. I need a little more than that.
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 2:19 pm
Frank Peterson
Well, if Obama wasn’t being bombarded right and left by incredibly stupid questions about his patriotism, race, etc, he might be able to cut thru the bullshit and get to the issues. As for McCain—I have yet to see in print, let alone hear anything substantive from his camp either.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 2:35 pm
Diana T
Oh, Frank, thank you so much for calling it as it is. And, now, the Swift Boat folks are getting their dirty work started. I can assure you that they will attempt to take Obama and his wife through as much horse muck as they can get away with. I have noticed from the beginning that there is always racial overtones in the media, no matter how subtle they think it is. Just like with Hillary, even NPR would accompany her name with a description of what she was wearing. I love the picture of Obama because the eyes are so telling. I see a very forward looking, motivated andinspired person with his face to the future. Go to some of the think tanks like I do for in depth information about the issues. Today, Brookings has the lecture Chuck Hagel did on what our future faces, particularly in Foreign Policy. This is the stuff we’d better be focusing on. By the way, are any of these guys talking up the environment yet? Because I am in Kentucky(very Republican), I am urging people to Google Mountain Top Removal so they can see how our state is being defaced for the purpose of coal energy. At any rate, thank you for this post.
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 2:45 pm
Frank Peterson
Being a Vietnam vet, I am incensed by Swiftboating—as a term of contempt. That just riles my ass. Those men in those flimsy aluminum boats did a great job and for that Texas creep billionaire T. Boone Pickett to do what he did to John Kerry who was a brave man and by implication all of us who served in the f****** war just riles me up no end. I personally would like to kick his sorry ass round the state a few times. The SwiftPBoat vets are fighting back finally as reported in the NY Times. Finally. OK off my soap box and I have my Vets For Peace T shirt on and am raring to go. lol Chuck Hagel is one of the few pols I respect and I am truly sorry he left the Congress. I’d vote for the man any day. He has guts and integrity.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 2:55 pm
Brooklyn Gal
Frank, While I understand what you mean about Obama being bombarded with stupid accusations and his need to respond in a timely manner. But it still does not excuse his refusal to attend Town Hall meetings asap so the issues can finally be discussed. I would much rather see debates and meetings at this point. And I believe it will sway more people towards Obama. As for Hagel, I hope he plays an important role in this election.
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 3:06 pm
Frank Peterson
Carol, I’m not conversant with Town Hall meetings re Obama—but as the compaign is just getting started i’ll wait an see on that topic.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 3:50 pm
Brooklyn Gal
McCain has been holding these meetings and inviting Obama. Obama would rather debate. Now the candidates are working on some type of compromise. This is valuable time wasted and instead we have comments coming from both camps that take away the focus. These people should learn to (dare I use that acronym again)!
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 4:02 pm
Frank Peterson
Carol: it’s only an acronym after all :-)
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 4:07 pm
Maurine H
Frank - I agree wholeheartedly with your abhorrence of the Swiftboating that took place during the last election. That a small bunch of hatemongers could influence public opinion in the way they did made me seriously doubt the average American IQ. I hope that the candidates this time are more prepared for these attacks than Kerry was and can deal with them sooner than he did. Probably a fierce campaign has its upside in that the next President will have to deal with slings and arrows from all directions, both nationally and internationally. It’s such a complex world scene right now that the thought of a hawk with outdated ideas like McCain at the helm is very disturbing. If ever there were a time for international diplomatic skills to be introduced, it’s at this point in history. With the military’s recent admission of the grave mistakes in planning and executing the Iraq war (with some definite finger-pointing at the White House), we need intelligent, forward-thinking leaders in charge. The American public has let itself be led down the garden path by this administration. Let’s hope the people, and not the media, decide what is best for our country in November. I’m putting a good bit of faith in younger voters who aren’t mired down in cynicism and bitterness and who are progressive thinkers. But I’m lighting candles like mad, too.
By Maurine H on 07/01/2008 4:12 pm