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Q & A | 07/01/2008 12:05 pm

Nobody, Including Barack Obama Himself, Expected It

© AP

Editor’s Note: Gail Collins is a columnist for The New York Times.

LESLEY: So, Gail, I want to say right up front that I love reading your column …

GAIL: Oh, thank you.

LESLEY: … especially on Saturdays because it’s an unhurried morning. You always – almost always – make me chuckle. And then you come around and hit me with an especially kind of pungent insight, especially about this election. So I’m wondering why you think so many of the pundits got so much about this campaign wrong this time. Was it the nature of the candidates – you know, the woman, the African-American, the maverick, the evangelical? Or is there a problem within the punditry itself?

GAIL: Since the creation of 24-hour TV, just the necessity of talking so much really does drain everybody … there’s only so much you can say. And there’s not really much great desire for a half-hour talk about competing health-care plans. I mean, it’s just this sort of general talk about how the elections are going. And so people are kind of required, I think, to push themselves a lot more than they used to be.

LESLEY: And there’s no time to think. I mean, the minute you’ve finished saying one thing they’re calling you to come right in and talk some more.

GAIL: Yeah, you’re basically talking about the same thing over and over again. So you do sort of create general, you know, conventional wisdoms. But that said, this has been a really weird campaign. I was certainly wrong about absolutely everything. I’ve always presumed that the thing that everybody thinks is going to happen is usually, actually, unfortunately the thing that happens. And nobody, including Hillary Clinton, thought Barack — I’m not even sure Barack Obama thought Barack Obama was going to catch the way he did. I mean, he wasn’t that great a candidate when he started out. He was a good candidate, but nobody who you would say, "My gosh, this person is so spectacular right now that he doesn’t need to wait. He should — this is it." But, last summer and early fall, he just caught on fire and it took everybody by surprise. And his organization and the excitement of people in the caucus states took everybody by surprise. So that one —

LESLEY: Yeah, it took them by surprise, but he was ready.

GAIL: Yeah.

LESLEY: Which is different from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which wasn’t ready for whatever came their way.

GAIL: I, like everybody else, has said, "Well, you know, the problem was she didn’t organize in the caucus states well." Those early caucus states, where you don’t have a general election, you just have the people who are willing to get up and go to the local school and vote. They’re the only ones who matter. And she didn’t organize that well in those states. But that said, to win in those states generally you need really committed, excited people behind you. It’s not necessarily the same kind of voter who goes out for a regular primary election. They’re people who are really dedicated, who are really willing to stand in long lines and give up their Saturday afternoon. And so I’m not sure, even, if she was well organized; that her support, which tends to be very broad but not necessarily all that deep, could have beaten his really, really, really excited, intense supporters.

LESLEY: Well, having admitted that you got a lot wrong, let’s give you an opportunity to either be wrong again —

179 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

~ countrywoman ~
Hi Maurine, always happy to have the benefit of your commentary. Sure hope things have cooled down in your little corner of the world…..(not your candles, of course!)…..we have had some residual influence from the smoke all the way up here in Oregon, it must be pretty scary and awful to be so close to the source. Stay safe. +~~
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/01/2008 4:21 pm
Frank Peterson
Maurine, as usual, beautifully said— :-)
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 4:25 pm
Diana T
Maurine, Why do you think the hatemongers feel the need to create innuendoes and talk about lapel pins? I am constantly how willing people are to take seriously people like Rush Limbaugh and his counterpartts instead of doing their own research and homework. Also, there is a general lack of history and short memory span it seems. So many are more than willing to take for gospel all the negs that they hear about Obama instead of studying the flip flops of McCain and also the miserable 8 yrs. of this administration. We simply have to get people back in the white house that have a willingness to participate in the world situations and serve with their international diplomatic skills. Richard Holbrooke, Dennis Ross, Chuck Hagel and countless others need to be pulled back into the service of their country to help build up what the Bush White HOuse so eagerly took down. Thank you so much for your inspiring post.
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 4:52 pm
~ countrywoman ~
And thank you, Diana, for your enlightened post! The hatemongers don’t just take the manufactured ugliness as gospel, they spread the (excrement) around. Discussing it with them on it is like reasoning with a brick, but posting facts and well-reasoned viewpoints just might help prevent malignant malformation of logic in others?
By ~ countrywoman ~ on 07/01/2008 5:47 pm
Maurine H
Diana - thanks for your comment. I don’t have answers, just educated guesses. I grew up in an “old-fashioned Republican” family and my dad worked for the military as a civilian in charge of loading and handling aircraft carriers. There was lots of political talk around the dinner table but it was always in the vein of “what is our responsibility? what can we do to help?” During more recent decades, I’ve sadly watched an element of criticism and hatred grow like a tumor in this country. The agenda seems always to be to tear down rather than to build up- a perfect venue for Rush Limbaugh et al to influence and operate in. What puzzles me is how many Americans invest themselves in this type of negativity instead of working hard to produce what is positive for themselves and their families. The mainstream media has caught the same disease, it seems, perhaps because it translates to job security. There are some brave exceptions but they have to be very strong to survive on the air. I know I sound like a broken record when I keep saying that it’s the young people I look towards, but I’m around a lot of them, and even though they know they face a world with the types of challenges their parents never saw, they are excited about participating in the process. I live three blocks from a fine high school and seven blocks from a community college, and I see political stickers on all the cars here as well as young men and women out registering their peers to vote. So that’s why I’m optimistic (whilst burning my candles…very, very carefully up here in fire country!).
By Maurine H on 07/01/2008 6:46 pm
doll lady
Maurine….what a refreshing post. It is so wonderful to have posts like this. I am pretty dang tired of seeing the nashing and bashing posts. Do some people thrive on continuously spewing their beliefs????
By doll lady on 07/02/2008 7:16 am
Star Lawrence
Blogs wouldn’t even exist without belief spewing, would they?
By Star Lawrence on 07/02/2008 9:49 am
beth willis
The “Jerry Springer” factor in cyberspace? Peace and grace
By beth willis on 07/02/2008 1:44 pm
Diana T
Frank, Go to Brookings and watch the videos of his lecture this week. He is one of 2 or 3 republicans that I would vote for; indeed, after watching the video this a.m., I emailed them to a friend stating that I would love to see him appointed to the Cabinet as Sec’y of State. He has a realistic and balance grip foreign policy. I saw in the paper where the Swift Boat Vets are going to fight back this time around; more power to them! They don’t deserve this kind of noteriety.
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 3:51 pm
Frank Peterson
I will, Diana—Hagel is one of my heroes—personally I would love to see him as president and I never thought I would say that about a republican! Swift Boat vets don’t deserve that crap that’s been attached to their service. No vet deserves it. One does not go thru the kind of hell we all went thru and expect to see BS like that.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 4:05 pm
beth willis
Frank, thank you for your service in Vietnam, a generally thankless task, I know. I’m not defending T. Boone Pickett, but I believe the leader, financier of the swiftboat harangue was Bob Perry, millionaire contractor from Houston. All scoundrels deserve to be properly identified, if for no other reason than we can use them as bad examples. Hopefully, Americans will be more astute in the months leading to the election. Peace and grace
By beth willis on 07/01/2008 5:15 pm
Frank Peterson
Beth you’re right: i stand corrected: it was Perry. Thank you :-)
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 5:25 pm
K O
Hi Beth, I believe you and Frank are referring to Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens.
By K O on 07/01/2008 6:46 pm
beth willis
Kitty, I’m here in Texas and am fairly certain the bad guy in question is Bob Perry. T. Boone Pickens donates millions to his alma mater, Oklahoma State. Pickens may have contributed to the “swiftboat fund, but folks in these parts put the onus on Bob Perry. Peace and grace
By beth willis on 07/02/2008 1:32 pm
Frannie Em
I never likee the swiftboating of John Kerry. It was so stupid. I have vet friends that didn’t like it that he threw his metals away etc, but they thought the swiftboating was lower than a snake. I agree. I watched it thinking, how low can you go? Unfortunately, I don’t think there is swiftboating going on regarding Obama - now it is happening to McCain. It is too bad because he came out several times and made statements that they shouldn’t be doing that to Kerry (at the time) and that Kerry had served honorably. He stated it several times. I saw him a couple of times in on MSNBC and CNN. Since we now have a volunteer army, there will be less and less people who will run for president that have served in the military. I don’t think it matters. I don’t think the left should bring it up, because it may backfire in their faces. Does Obama really want that? They are trying to make McCain look like a war criminal, that would mean that everyone that served in Viet Nam was a war criminal. That is wrong wrong wrong. The swiftboating that is going on is against McCain. I don’t just mean what Clark said. He is a good looking guy that was Clinton’s commander in Europe and he had Bosnia bombed to hell, and he is accustomed to being taken seriously if he speaks. I like him, but he always seemed a little arrogant to me. Anyway, they are starting out against McCain’s record in the Viet Nam War and I think, what has this got to do with Medicare or Social Security, or health care or getting our guys out of the Middle East? I just think the Machiavellian machinations of both parties are shameful. What they did to Kerry and now what they are trying to do to McCain. It is the American people who will just have to stand up against this nonsense. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11429.html
By Frannie Em on 07/01/2008 7:02 pm