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Q & A | 07/01/2008 12:05 pm

Nobody, Including Barack Obama Himself, Expected It

© AP

Editor’s Note: Gail Collins is a columnist for The New York Times.

LESLEY: So, Gail, I want to say right up front that I love reading your column …

GAIL: Oh, thank you.

LESLEY: … especially on Saturdays because it’s an unhurried morning. You always – almost always – make me chuckle. And then you come around and hit me with an especially kind of pungent insight, especially about this election. So I’m wondering why you think so many of the pundits got so much about this campaign wrong this time. Was it the nature of the candidates – you know, the woman, the African-American, the maverick, the evangelical? Or is there a problem within the punditry itself?

GAIL: Since the creation of 24-hour TV, just the necessity of talking so much really does drain everybody … there’s only so much you can say. And there’s not really much great desire for a half-hour talk about competing health-care plans. I mean, it’s just this sort of general talk about how the elections are going. And so people are kind of required, I think, to push themselves a lot more than they used to be.

LESLEY: And there’s no time to think. I mean, the minute you’ve finished saying one thing they’re calling you to come right in and talk some more.

GAIL: Yeah, you’re basically talking about the same thing over and over again. So you do sort of create general, you know, conventional wisdoms. But that said, this has been a really weird campaign. I was certainly wrong about absolutely everything. I’ve always presumed that the thing that everybody thinks is going to happen is usually, actually, unfortunately the thing that happens. And nobody, including Hillary Clinton, thought Barack — I’m not even sure Barack Obama thought Barack Obama was going to catch the way he did. I mean, he wasn’t that great a candidate when he started out. He was a good candidate, but nobody who you would say, "My gosh, this person is so spectacular right now that he doesn’t need to wait. He should — this is it." But, last summer and early fall, he just caught on fire and it took everybody by surprise. And his organization and the excitement of people in the caucus states took everybody by surprise. So that one —

LESLEY: Yeah, it took them by surprise, but he was ready.

GAIL: Yeah.

LESLEY: Which is different from Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which wasn’t ready for whatever came their way.

GAIL: I, like everybody else, has said, "Well, you know, the problem was she didn’t organize in the caucus states well." Those early caucus states, where you don’t have a general election, you just have the people who are willing to get up and go to the local school and vote. They’re the only ones who matter. And she didn’t organize that well in those states. But that said, to win in those states generally you need really committed, excited people behind you. It’s not necessarily the same kind of voter who goes out for a regular primary election. They’re people who are really dedicated, who are really willing to stand in long lines and give up their Saturday afternoon. And so I’m not sure, even, if she was well organized; that her support, which tends to be very broad but not necessarily all that deep, could have beaten his really, really, really excited, intense supporters.

LESLEY: Well, having admitted that you got a lot wrong, let’s give you an opportunity to either be wrong again —

179 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Brooklyn Gal
Are you also referring to the shale? I understand there is a process that heats the shale so we can get gas and oil. Only it takes loads of electricity and water.
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 3:10 pm
Brooklyn Gal
Sorry, The above comment about shale was for Diana T.
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 3:13 pm
Diana T
Hey, Carol L. Could you clarify so that I can respond? I am not sure where you are reading; I don’t remember mentioning shale. Of course, at my age…well, you know….
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 4:56 pm
Brooklyn Gal
I think you were talking about coal. But I was wondering about shale. It’s not your age. You’re quite with it!
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 5:07 pm
Diana T
Actually, Carol, shale does play a part in the mining of coal. I wish everyone would go to google and put in mountain top removal so they can see the defacement that has taken place over the years in Eastern Ky. and all through the Appalachia. When I was a medical office manager, we used to fly in there back in the 80’s(doing a medical clinic) and see it from the air. And that was 20 yrs. ago! You can’t imagine the horror it has wrought on the people and the land in that area.
By Diana T on 07/01/2008 9:40 pm
beth willis
Diana, I have seen the devastation wrought by greed in Appalachia, as recently as last September. At such sites, we would pull over and photograph what was happening….basically chopping down our “purple mountains majesty”. My daughter spent several summers working in the Appalachia Service Project, giving us a view into the dusty roads off the highways where the real devastation lies. Also wanted to share with you the largest phenomenon to hit north central Texas. That is the Barnett Shale, so I’m thinking that shale does have a role in fuel production. I have this weird feeling that when the “wildcatters” have collected all the natural gas beneath our houses that we will all be sucked into the world’s largest sink hole. And I’ve no desire to e the subject of a Movie of the Week. Peace and grace
By beth willis on 07/02/2008 2:32 pm
Frank Peterson
What do you mean “your age”? you’re still a young woman and you writing tell me so.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 9:33 pm
kermie b
1. Okay, either stop using acronyms or list them and their meanings and tell me what IMO means, please. I have never used these short forms and lose the meaning of a post when I am stuck on one. 2. Did anyone hear about the four-day workweek in Utah?
By kermie b on 07/01/2008 2:34 pm
Frank Peterson
Ki how are you today? Been a while since i spoke with you ;-)
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 2:36 pm
Frank Peterson
IMO=in my opinion.
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 2:37 pm
Sherrie Crews
You know what I find the most disgusting, if not frightening? That there are so many people in this country that fall for such obvious muck-raking garbage as the Swiftboaters spew. I really don’t know why it still stuns me though, after all they did elect W twice.
By Sherrie Crews on 07/01/2008 3:10 pm
Frank Peterson
Sherrie—Amen!
By Frank Peterson on 07/01/2008 3:36 pm
Frannie Em
Sherrie That is true, but they do it on both sides. I am an independent. I was raised by my birth parents until the age of 14 and they were democrats, my adoptive parents were republicans. I would have to say my mom, even back then, was more of a independent - she voted both tickets, my dad voted more republican, but also would vote the candidate. He was pretty smart and an honest guy from Indiana and couldn’t stand phonies, so if the republican seemed dishonest, he wouldn’t vote for him. I am an independent. I watch both sides use whatever they want against the other side. When it is their candidate being smeared they are all up in arms. When it is the other parties candidate being smeared, they think it is the truth. People think they are objective, intelligent and therefore “above” those types of tactics, but they aren’t. Sit back and see what people say about each candidate. Are you more willing to agree with what is said against McCain because he is a republican?
By Frannie Em on 07/01/2008 7:17 pm
Brooklyn Gal
ki b, I tried but the comment didn’t submit. btw, it took me 5 minutes to figure out ST#U!
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 2:58 pm
Brooklyn Gal
ki b, I found this site easy. Just enter the acronymand the definition come up. http://www.sharpened.net/glossary/acronyms.php
By Brooklyn Gal on 07/01/2008 3:25 pm