A Friend Stopped By | 10/15/2009 10:45 am
Liz Claman Decodes the Significance of the Dow's 10k Breakthrough

wOw asked Liz Claman, host of Fox Business’s "Countdown to the Closing Bell," her outlook on the stock market and more.
wOw: Do you think this is sustainable?
LIZ CLAMAN: Yes. Until it isn’t. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that we can hit these benchmarks, pass out the celebratory hats and propel forward for awhile until suddenly the "herd" hits the rewind button and people flee the markets again. For now though, as long as the government continues with its stimulus program to help the economy back on its feet, the experts feel the markets will stay firm. What happens when the "exit strategy" kicks into place is another story.
wOw: Do you have confidence in the stock market after last year’s experience?
LIZ: I’m an optimist. I’ve always felt that over time, the stock market offers a better return than just about anything else out there. We obviously ran into a "force majeure" situation with the financial crisis but those don’t come along that often. The adage is still "everything in moderation." If you allocate properly and spread your money around in different areas of investing, you have a better shot than if you were to hide your cash under the Sealy Posturepedic. That said, everyone should learn that you can no longer just "buy-and-hold." You have to be a way more active investor and watch the situation much more closely.
wOw: Do you think the problems that caused last year’s crash have been fixed?
LIZ: Unfortunately, no. While there’s been so much discussion about changing or adding teeth to the rules, enforcement and regulation haven’t changed much. People on Wall Street are awfully resistant to more regulation but these are the same people who pulled their chairs up to the roulette wheel, lost a lot of money and then came to the rest of us with their hands out asking us to save them. A very clear message must be sent that the taxpayer favor is a one-time deal: Change your risky ways because the taxpayer won’t be there again to bail you out. I don’t think anyone’s gotten that message yet.
wOw: Would you have done better last year if you had professional management or do you think the professionals did just as badly as the layperson?
LIZ: There’s a brilliant Princeton professor named Burton Malkiel who wrote a famous book in 1973 called A Random Walk Down Wall Street. His theory, in essence, is that a monkey flipping a coin or throwing darts at a stock chart could do just as well if not better than an active money manager. Frankly, just about everyone I know who has a professional financial manager lost money last year. Most managers out there were in lock-step with a dismal market, including some of the most famous pros. Peoples’ kids’ college funds imploded, mutual funds were a mess so having a pro at the wheel didn’t save most from the crash. There were a smart, select few who did well, but I know too many people who are asking today, "I had to pay my guy to do this poorly?"
wOw: If you’re still in cash, is it too late to invest it?
LIZ: Just about everyone I talk to says no, it’s not too late because, again, the government is still adding stimulus to the economy. Therefore, the momentum is, for now, to the upside. But we’ve got a weak dollar and rising unemployment. Successful investors like Warren Buffett warn that eventually all that stimulus will have some type of negative effect. Inflation? No major signs of it yet but when you treat a desperately ill patient with huge amounts of medication like the U.S. government did last September, some side effects may start to show.
wOw: Have we learned a lesson that one can’t time the market?
LIZ: That’s always been true. You can’t time the market. You might get lucky on occasion but market timing is a fool’s game. Just stay informed and be an active investor. No one is going to care more about your money than you so if you see that a stock you may have bought has doubled, take some profits. Sell one-third or one-half of it. Don’t get greedy.
wOw: What are the professionals saying?























3 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment
Just a thought about the possibility of an inflation backlash to all the stimulus money being put into the economy. Liz’s comment that there are no signs of an inflationary trend is a positive. However, we should keep in mind that most of the stimulus money has yet to be allocated. Last I heard, between $500 and $600 billion dollars remain to be disbursed … let alone being spent. The Treasury is not yet running the printing press at maximum output.
There also is talk in Congress about another stimulus bill to be offered next year. Inflationary fears could become a reality and before the midterm elections too.
Another sore point with our senior population is that while there will not be a COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) to their Social Security in 2010, the amounts for their cost for Medicare, which is automatically deducted from their Social Security checks/and or deposits, will be increased, as usual. Not really fair, is it?