Wall Street Weekly | 07/10/2009 10:45 am
Stimulus Not Working? Let's Have More! by Liz Peek
If the stimulus spending isn’t working, does it make sense to make it bigger?

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Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: wOw’s Wall Street Weekly with Liz Peek (Week of 7/6)
Editor’s Note: Liz Peek is a financial columnist and the author of wOw’s SHEconomics.
Holy smoke! Now even the Pope is weighing in on financial regulation. In a rare encyclical, the Pontiff added his voice this week to those clamoring for economic overhaul. Come to think of it, maybe we could use some divine guidance.The Big Debate underway is whether the United States needs a new stimulus program. This is idiotic. Whether you are a fan or foe of the monstrous $787 billion package pushed through Congress earlier this year, it is preposterous to assume that such an ungainly mishmash of programs could be implemented to any real effect in just a few months. Some $100 to $150 billion of the total has been committed to various projects, but only a portion of that has found its way into bank accounts. Moreover, if the stimulus spending isn’t working – does it make sense to make it bigger? No!
Anxiety about the stimulus package, and about the course of the economy, stems mainly from rising unemployment. The administration’s rosy outlook for stemming job losses proved unrealistic. (This should give some pause to those who buy into Obama’s projected "cost savings" from health-care reform or "green job creation" from cap-and-trade. These numbers, truly, are complete fiction. There is nothing I have found in either bill that would support such projections.)
While the labor situation does look gruesome, there are some encouraging signs. The four-week moving average of unemployment claims dropped in May by 53,000; normally a decline of 40,000 would signal the end of a recession. Continuing claims, though still high, appear to be peaking. The truth is that the numbers are so messed up by the auto industry bankruptcies that they are inconclusive. Data from the next two or three months will be much more telling.
While the signals are still mixed, there continue to be more positive than negative readings on the economy. Business confidence is improving, earnings estimates are moving slightly higher, the drop in consumer credit has slowed, house prices are stabilizing and manufacturing inventories are dropping. Moreover, two serious developing headwinds – rising oil prices and higher interest rates – have slumped from their recent highs.
The latter is good news and bad news, and points to just how delicate the current outlook remains. Oil prices and interest rates have backed down because growth prospects suddenly dimmed – dimmed precisely because oil prices and interest rates had increased. Investors, and policymakers, are in effect chasing their own tails. As oil prices zoomed higher in recent months, and as investors become concerned about projected budget deficits from our free-spending administration, consumers were hit with higher fuel costs and a drop in the opportunity to refinance their mortgages. This latter activity, as I’ve written before, has been far more stimulative than any program out of the Beltway.
The respite on interest rates may prove short-lived. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it is becoming less aggressive in its purchases of certain assets, including Treasuries, as it begins to unwind the buildup of its balance sheet. Some fear the Fed may be moving too quickly to rein in its largesse, but others correctly point out that moves to stimulate or restrict the economy almost always are overdone.
The Fed has to get this sort of push-pull just right, or it is possible that we could indeed fall back into recession. Joe Biden was blasted recently for admitting that the administration had "misread" the economy. Newsflash: this is tricky business, which is why many people, including myself, are aghast at the Obama team’s growing incursions into all sectors of commerce.
Read more about: Barack Obama, Business, Ecnomic Stimulus, Government, Liz Peek, Money, News, Obama Administration, Wall Street Weekly
























163 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment
I agree with Newt ..it is painfully obvious that the "stimulus" is not stimulating so there is a movement to interject another consisting of tax credits to help small business ( the largest employer in the nation) who is the entity that "creates" jobs. ( The Reps and economists told them that maonths ago but did they listen ..? no!)
Newt has suggested rather than allocate (borrow or print) new money for this that they suspend the monies from the original that are to be spent in later years and use it for this instead. It is pretty obvious that if they do not do something soon those monies will be a moot point with little or no tax revenue to repay them coming in. It will all collapse.
I agree with Newt..it amy be the ONLY way to save us.
It could be done by suspending or dramatically reducing matching taxes, SSI contributions and Small corporation taxes to allow small business owners to employe people for less. It could also be temporary and reinstated later when things improve/.
SJ Morgan…you are exactly on target here…
98% of American firms have less than 100 employees…and create over 97% of all new jobs. They employ over 50.2% of the private sector workforce.
Obama is purposely killing America’s small businesses……
Wealthy Venture Capitalists to Join Fortune 500 Firms in Obama Administration Small Business ProgramsJune 8, 2009
Petaluma, Calif. - The Obama Administration is moving closer to new legislation and policy that will allow many of President Barack Obama’s wealthiest contributors in the venture capital industry to take federal contracts meant for small businesses.
President Obama has already appointed two of his chief campaign fundraisers from the venture capital industry to top positions at the Small Business Administration (SBA). New York venture capitalist, and heiress to the multi-billion dollar Tootsie Roll Company, Karen Gordon Mills was appointed to head the agency. During her confirmation hearing, Mills voiced her support for new federal policy that would divert billions of dollars in federal small business contracts to wealthy venture capitalists.
President Obama has now appointed another major campaign contributor from the venture capital industry to the other top spot at the SBA, the Chief Counsel for the SBA Office of Advocacy. Winslow Sargeant, Ph.D., will fill that position. Prior to his appointment, Sargeant was a managing director of the Wisconsin-based venture firm, Venture Investors LLC. He is a proponent of changes in federal policy that will divert federal small business contracts to well-heeled venture capitalists and even many of the nation’s top venture capital firms.
(http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2009/05/22/obamas-sba-nomination-nods-in-favor-of-vcindustry/, http://wistechnology.com/articles/3310/)
The Obama Administration is currently allowing Fortune 500 firms and thousands of other clearly large businesses to take federal contracts earmarked for legitimate small businesses. Investigative stories by ABC, CBS and CNN have reported firms receiving federal small business contracts include: British Aerospace (BAE), Rolls-Royce, Xerox, John Deere, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Sherwin-Williams, Dell Computer and Dutch giant Buhrmann NV. (ABC, http://www.asbl.com/abc_evening_news.wmv; CBS, http://www.asbl.com/cbs.wmv; CNN, http://www.asbl.com/showmedia.php?id=1170)
Congresswoman Nydia M. Velázquez (D - NY) is leading the Obama Administration’s efforts in the House Committee on Small Business to pass legislation to divert federal small business contracts to some of the nation’s most successful investors. Velázquez has already passed two bills through her committee, and is expected to pass a third in the near future that would divert billions of dollars a year in federal small business contracts to firms owned and controlled by venture capitalists.
Velázquez has been one of several key members of Congress who has received significant campaign contributions from the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), its members and the venture capital industry as a whole. (http://www.allbusiness.com/company-activitiesmanagement/business-climate-conditions/9077284-1.html)
Velázquez has also been a vocal opponent to the new Fairness and Transparency in Contracting Act that was written to stop the diversion of federal small business contracts to Fortune 500 firms and other large businesses. (http://www.asbl.com/documents/hr2568.pdf)
Go to the American Small Business League and have a look at what is being done….
below is what I will call Newt’s Stimulus Plan, which all centers around putting money back in the hands of American citizens and businesses, to energize the economy and get it moving back in the right direction.
- A two-year, 50% reduction in Social Security and Medicare tax for both employee and employer match.
- Match the Chinese tax on capital gains: their rate is ZERO.
- Adopt the Irish tax rate on corporations of 12.5%.
- Abolish the death tax.
You can watch his speech below, or read the transcript at this link: Newt’s speech to 2009 GOP fundraising dinner.S J, A MUST READ FOR YOU…..WHY BUSINESSES ARE LEAVING IN CALIFORNIA….AND WHY THEY WILL LEAVE OUR COUNTRY.
http://reason.com/news/show/134723.html
Paul Krugman
Go to Columnist Page »Blog: The Conscience of a LiberalRelatedTimes Topics: Credit Crisis — The EssentialsReaders’ CommentsUnfortunately, those worries have proved justified. The bad employment report for June made it clear that the stimulus was, indeed, too small. But it also damaged the credibility of the administration’s economic stewardship. There’s now a real risk that President Obama will find himself caught in a political-economic trap.
I’ll talk about that trap, and how he can escape it, in a moment. First, however, let me step back and ask how concerned citizens should be reacting to the disappointing economic news. Should we be patient and give the Obama plan time to work? Should we call for bigger, bolder actions? Or should we declare the plan a failure and demand that the administration call the whole thing off?
Before you answer, consider what happens in normal times.
When there’s an ordinary, garden-variety recession, the job of fighting that recession is assigned to the Federal Reserve. The Fed responds by cutting interest rates in an incremental fashion. Reducing rates a bit at a time, it keeps cutting until the economy turns around. At times it pauses to assess the effects of its work; if the economy is still weak, the cutting resumes.
During the last recession, the Fed repeatedly cut rates as the slump deepened — 11 times over the course of 2001. Then, amid early signs of recovery, it paused, giving the rate cuts time to work. When it became clear that the economy still wasn’t growing fast enough to create jobs, more rate cuts followed.
Normally, then, we expect policy makers to respond to bad job numbers with a combination of patience and resolve. They should give existing policies time to work, but they should also consider making those policies stronger.
And that’s what the Obama administration should be doing right now with its fiscal stimulus. (It’s important to remember that the stimulus was necessary because the Fed, having cut rates all the way to zero, has run out of ammunition to fight this slump.) That is, policy makers should stay calm in the face of disappointing early results, recognizing that the plan will take time to deliver its full benefit. But they should also be prepared to add to the stimulus now that it’s clear that the first round wasn’t big enough.
Unfortunately, the politics of fiscal policy are very different from the politics of monetary policy. For the past 30 years, we’ve been told that government spending is bad, and conservative opposition to fiscal stimulus (which might make people think better of government) has been bitter and unrelenting even in the face of the worst slump since the Great Depression. Predictably, then, Republicans — and some Democrats — have treated any bad news as evidence of failure, rather than as a reason to make the policy stronger.
Hence the danger that the Obama administration will find itself caught in a political-economic trap, in which the very weakness of the economy undermines the administration’s ability to respond effectively.
As I said, I was afraid this would happen. But that’s water under the bridge. The question is what the president and his economic team should do now.
It’s perfectly O.K. for the administration to defend what it’s done so far. It’s fine to have Vice President Joseph Biden touring the country, highlighting the many good things the stimulus money is doing.
It’s also reasonable for administration economists to call for patience, and point out, correctly, that the stimulus was never expected to have its full impact this summer, or even this year.
But there’s a difference between defending what you’ve done so far and being defensive. It was disturbing when President Obama walked back Mr. Biden’s admission that the administration “misread” the economy, declaring that “there’s nothing we would have done differently.” There was a whiff of the Bush infallibility complex in that remark, a hint that the current administration might share some of its predecessor’s inability to admit mistakes. And that’s an attitude neither Mr. Obama nor the country can afford.
What Mr. Obama needs to do is level with the American people. He needs to admit that he may not have done enough on the first try. He needs to remind the country that he’s trying to steer the country through a severe economic storm, and that some course adjustments — including, quite possibly, another round of stimulus — may be necessary.
What he needs, in short, is to do for economic policy what he’s already done for race relations and foreign policy — talk to Americans like adults.
Oh, groan. It’s true. That old fool Newt is probably going to run in 2012. Sigh.
Who says the stimulus plan isn’t working? I have seen the RA signs and my paper has published pictures of them in other areas.
32 billion of the stimulus package is going toward higher education. Students who fall into the lowest income group will receive $5,350 for attending college through Pell Grants. This will help students in paying average costs of three quarters of a four year college degree. 800,000 students will be getting this Pell Grant Funding.
Many people have researched and applied for women’s grants, community grants, small business grants, etc.
Much info online. Just because there is no infrastucture repair on your block doesn’t mean it isn’t happening elsewhere.
Mel, you have your opinions about Obama’s report card thus far but you cannot deny that his ideas and visions have shocked America. The polls support that. He said he would close GITMO. It will be open for a long time. He put in a $787 billion stimulus which was not directed at helping people like you, me, our families and friends. He did, however, have a remarkable effect on those states that carried him in the primaries. He presented his Universal Health Care….not much planning and yet at an enormous price. I don’t think it will ever take place. Move on to his cap and trade bill…..virtually dead in the water because China and India aren’t buying it so it puts the U. S. at a gross disadvantage at, again, an enormous cost to the taxpayers. His foreign approach is more than questionable. And, please let us not forget how he has let the gay community down by doing absolutely nothing for them. That will, indeed, cost him many votes. So, now where are we with this brilliant, inexperienced, community organizer? We are experiencing bad juju. And, we have 3 l/2 years to go.
George Bush? Millions of Americans are realizing that his deficit was miniscule compared to Obama’s in just less than 6 months in office and nothing is working.
As always, my informed republican opinion.
phyllis: we won’t really see if it’s working until early fall.
Do you realize early fall is just two to three months away. Do you really think anything will fall in place by then?