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Wall Street Weekly | 07/10/2009 9:45 am

Stimulus Not Working? Let's Have More! by Liz Peek

If the stimulus spending isn’t working, does it make sense to make it bigger?
© Shutterstock
For example, there is rising enthusiasm for regulation of oil markets, spurred now by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown. In an editorial published this week in The Wall Street Journal, these leaders bemoan the volatility of oil markets, noting that, for both producers and consumers, swings of the magnitude we have seen in the past year are disruptive.

They are right, but much of the craziness in oil markets in recent years has been from the growing new involvement of institutional investors. In the five years through March 2008, institutional accumulation of oil futures nearly matched the growth in demand from China – the single biggest source. In the past two decades, those managing endowments and pension funds have sought to diversify beyond traditional holdings like stocks and bonds, and have invested in private equity funds, hedge funds and also in commodities. To participate in the expected rise in commodities prices, large investors buy index funds, which then buy futures.

This trend caused a lopsided trade in the largest commodities and drove prices up. (From the end of 2003 through March 2008 investment from this group expanded from $13 billion to $260 billion; commodities prices rose by 183%.) Compounding the problem is that the markets are relatively small and therefore easily moved. There is a move afoot to further regulate these markets, where traditionally companies can hedge their commodities’ exposure. For instance, airlines try to protect themselves from rising fuel costs by locking in prices. While greater transparency alone might dampen the swings in commodities markets, imposing limits on positions and other measures that have been proposed might create unhealthy distortions.

However, this is an administration that believes in the power of government to know and cure all. Sarkozy and Brown note that OPEC is more eager than ever to join forces in creating stable markets. I bet they are. They see oil prices plummeting – again – as well as increased interest around the globe in reducing oil imports. Rather than bind ourselves to a worldwide price, why not impose an oil import fee here at home that would stabilize prices, thus supporting our own efforts to develop our huge natural gas supplies as well as green technologies? Letting the markets respond naturally to incentives – is that just too simple?

163 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

S.J. Morgan

I agree with Newt ..it is painfully obvious that the "stimulus" is not stimulating so there is a movement to interject another consisting of tax credits to help small business ( the largest employer in the nation) who is the entity that "creates" jobs. ( The Reps and economists  told them that maonths ago but did they listen ..?  no!)

Newt has suggested rather than allocate (borrow or print) new money for this that they suspend the monies from the original  that are to be spent in later years and use it for this instead.  It is pretty obvious that if they do not do something soon those monies will be a moot point with little or no tax revenue to repay them coming in.  It will all collapse.

I agree with Newt..it amy be the ONLY way to save us.

It could be done by suspending or dramatically reducing matching taxes, SSI contributions and Small corporation taxes to allow small business owners to employe people for less.  It could also be temporary and reinstated later when things improve/.

By S.J. Morgan on 07/10/2009 10:32 am
Kelly In Texas

SJ Morgan…you are exactly on target here…

98% of American firms have less than 100 employees…and create over 97% of all new jobs. They employ over 50.2% of the private sector workforce.

Obama is purposely killing America’s small businesses……


        Wealthy Venture Capitalists to Join Fortune 500 Firms in Obama Administration Small Business ProgramsJune 8, 2009

Petaluma, Calif. - The Obama Administration is moving closer to new legislation and policy that will allow many of President Barack Obama’s wealthiest contributors in the venture capital industry to take federal contracts meant for small businesses.

President Obama has already appointed two of his chief campaign fundraisers from the venture capital industry to top positions at the Small Business Administration (SBA). New York venture capitalist, and heiress to the multi-billion dollar Tootsie Roll Company, Karen Gordon Mills was appointed to head the agency. During her confirmation hearing, Mills voiced her support for new federal policy that would divert billions of dollars in federal small business contracts to wealthy venture capitalists.

President Obama has now appointed another major campaign contributor from the venture capital industry to the other top spot at the SBA, the Chief Counsel for the SBA Office of Advocacy. Winslow Sargeant, Ph.D., will fill that position. Prior to his appointment, Sargeant was a managing director of the Wisconsin-based venture firm, Venture Investors LLC. He is a proponent of changes in federal policy that will divert federal small business contracts to well-heeled venture capitalists and even many of the nation’s top venture capital firms.
(http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2009/05/22/obamas-sba-nomination-nods-in-favor-of-vcindustry/, http://wistechnology.com/articles/3310/)

The Obama Administration is currently allowing Fortune 500 firms and thousands of other clearly large businesses to take federal contracts earmarked for legitimate small businesses. Investigative stories by ABC, CBS and CNN have reported firms receiving federal small business contracts include: British Aerospace (BAE), Rolls-Royce, Xerox, John Deere, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Sherwin-Williams, Dell Computer and Dutch giant Buhrmann NV. (ABC, http://www.asbl.com/abc_evening_news.wmv; CBS, http://www.asbl.com/cbs.wmv; CNN, http://www.asbl.com/showmedia.php?id=1170)

Congresswoman Nydia M. Velázquez (D - NY) is leading the Obama Administration’s efforts in the House Committee on Small Business to pass legislation to divert federal small business contracts to some of the nation’s most successful investors. Velázquez has already passed two bills through her committee, and is expected to pass a third in the near future that would divert billions of dollars a year in federal small business contracts to firms owned and controlled by venture capitalists.

Velázquez has been one of several key members of Congress who has received significant campaign contributions from the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), its members and the venture capital industry as a whole. (http://www.allbusiness.com/company-activitiesmanagement/business-climate-conditions/9077284-1.html)

Velázquez has also been a vocal opponent to the new Fairness and Transparency in Contracting Act that was written to stop the diversion of federal small business contracts to Fortune 500 firms and other large businesses. (http://www.asbl.com/documents/hr2568.pdf)

Go to the American Small Business League and have a look at what is being done….

By Kelly In Texas on 07/14/2009 11:21 am
S.J. Morgan
Thursday, June 11, 2009 The Newt Gingrich Stimulus Plan Newt Gingrich addressed the 2009 GOP Congressional Dinner this week in Washington.
below is what I will call Newt’s Stimulus Plan, which all centers around putting money back in the hands of American citizens and businesses, to energize the economy and get it moving back in the right direction.

  • A two-year, 50% reduction in Social Security and Medicare tax for both employee and employer match.
  • Match the Chinese tax on capital gains: their rate is ZERO.
  • Adopt the Irish tax rate on corporations of 12.5%.
  • Abolish the death tax.
You can watch his speech below, or read the transcript at this link: Newt’s speech to 2009 GOP fundraising dinner.

By S.J. Morgan on 07/10/2009 10:36 am
deber B

S J, A MUST READ FOR YOU…..WHY BUSINESSES ARE LEAVING IN CALIFORNIA….AND WHY THEY WILL LEAVE OUR COUNTRY.

http://reason.com/news/show/134723.html

By deber B on 07/12/2009 6:48 am
phyllis Doyle Pepe
Krugman’s article today offers up a different perspective. He worried at the get-go that the stimulus wasn’t enough.Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Paul Krugman

Go to Columnist Page »Blog: The Conscience of a LiberalRelatedTimes Topics: Credit Crisis — The EssentialsReaders’ Comments
Readers shared their thoughts on this article.

Unfortunately, those worries have proved justified. The bad employment report for June made it clear that the stimulus was, indeed, too small. But it also damaged the credibility of the administration’s economic stewardship. There’s now a real risk that President Obama will find himself caught in a political-economic trap.

I’ll talk about that trap, and how he can escape it, in a moment. First, however, let me step back and ask how concerned citizens should be reacting to the disappointing economic news. Should we be patient and give the Obama plan time to work? Should we call for bigger, bolder actions? Or should we declare the plan a failure and demand that the administration call the whole thing off?

Before you answer, consider what happens in normal times.

When there’s an ordinary, garden-variety recession, the job of fighting that recession is assigned to the Federal Reserve. The Fed responds by cutting interest rates in an incremental fashion. Reducing rates a bit at a time, it keeps cutting until the economy turns around. At times it pauses to assess the effects of its work; if the economy is still weak, the cutting resumes.

During the last recession, the Fed repeatedly cut rates as the slump deepened — 11 times over the course of 2001. Then, amid early signs of recovery, it paused, giving the rate cuts time to work. When it became clear that the economy still wasn’t growing fast enough to create jobs, more rate cuts followed.

Normally, then, we expect policy makers to respond to bad job numbers with a combination of patience and resolve. They should give existing policies time to work, but they should also consider making those policies stronger.

And that’s what the Obama administration should be doing right now with its fiscal stimulus. (It’s important to remember that the stimulus was necessary because the Fed, having cut rates all the way to zero, has run out of ammunition to fight this slump.) That is, policy makers should stay calm in the face of disappointing early results, recognizing that the plan will take time to deliver its full benefit. But they should also be prepared to add to the stimulus now that it’s clear that the first round wasn’t big enough.

Unfortunately, the politics of fiscal policy are very different from the politics of monetary policy. For the past 30 years, we’ve been told that government spending is bad, and conservative opposition to fiscal stimulus (which might make people think better of government) has been bitter and unrelenting even in the face of the worst slump since the Great Depression. Predictably, then, Republicans — and some Democrats — have treated any bad news as evidence of failure, rather than as a reason to make the policy stronger.

Hence the danger that the Obama administration will find itself caught in a political-economic trap, in which the very weakness of the economy undermines the administration’s ability to respond effectively.

As I said, I was afraid this would happen. But that’s water under the bridge. The question is what the president and his economic team should do now.

It’s perfectly O.K. for the administration to defend what it’s done so far. It’s fine to have Vice President Joseph Biden touring the country, highlighting the many good things the stimulus money is doing.

It’s also reasonable for administration economists to call for patience, and point out, correctly, that the stimulus was never expected to have its full impact this summer, or even this year.

But there’s a difference between defending what you’ve done so far and being defensive. It was disturbing when President Obama walked back Mr. Biden’s admission that the administration “misread” the economy, declaring that “there’s nothing we would have done differently.” There was a whiff of the Bush infallibility complex in that remark, a hint that the current administration might share some of its predecessor’s inability to admit mistakes. And that’s an attitude neither Mr. Obama nor the country can afford.

What Mr. Obama needs to do is level with the American people. He needs to admit that he may not have done enough on the first try. He needs to remind the country that he’s trying to steer the country through a severe economic storm, and that some course adjustments — including, quite possibly, another round of stimulus — may be necessary.

What he needs, in short, is to do for economic policy what he’s already done for race relations and foreign policy — talk to Americans like adults.

By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 07/10/2009 10:50 am
Maggie W

Oh, groan.  It’s true. That old fool Newt is probably going to run in 2012.  Sigh. 

Who says the stimulus plan isn’t working?  I have seen the RA signs and my paper has published pictures of them in other areas. 

32 billion of the stimulus package is going toward higher education. Students who fall into the lowest income group will receive $5,350 for attending college through Pell Grants. This will help students in paying average costs of three quarters of a four year college degree. 800,000 students will be getting this Pell Grant Funding.

Many people have researched and applied for women’s grants, community grants, small business grants, etc.

Much info online.  Just because there is no infrastucture repair on your block doesn’t mean it isn’t happening elsewhere.

By Maggie W on 07/10/2009 11:04 am
phyllis Doyle Pepe
Yes, Maggie plus we won’t really see if it’s working until early fall.
By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 07/10/2009 11:27 am
deber B
So does it make sense for Obama to compound that "iffy" $787 billion stimulus with another one when we don’t know if the first one will work or not?   Let’s face it.   President Obama was way over his head the day he walked into the White House.  If it isn’t written for him to read he doesn’t seem to be able to form an original thought.   Too bad for America.   Maybe those republicans have a point.
By deber B on 07/10/2009 11:42 am
Mel Berg
deber, you crack me up, if you think Pres.Obama is in over his head I would hate to see the state of affairs now if McCain had won. McCain and Gramm working to fix our economy would have been laughable. The one who was in over his head when he walked into the White House was GW Bush, look where he got us.
By Mel Berg on 07/11/2009 9:47 am
deber B

Mel, you have your opinions about Obama’s report card thus far but you cannot deny that his ideas and visions have shocked America.   The polls support that.   He said he would close GITMO.   It will be open for a long time.   He put in a $787 billion stimulus which was not directed at helping people like you, me, our families and friends.   He did, however, have a remarkable effect on those states that carried him in the primaries.   He presented his Universal Health Care….not much planning and yet at an enormous price.   I don’t think it will ever take place.   Move on to his cap and trade bill…..virtually dead in the water because China and India aren’t buying it so it puts the U. S. at a gross disadvantage at, again, an enormous cost to the taxpayers.   His foreign approach is more than questionable.   And, please let us not forget how he has let the gay community down by doing absolutely nothing for them.   That will, indeed, cost him many votes.    So, now where are we with this brilliant, inexperienced, community organizer?    We are experiencing bad juju.   And, we have 3 l/2 years to go.  

George Bush?  Millions of Americans are realizing that his deficit was miniscule compared to Obama’s in just less than 6 months in office and nothing is working.

As always, my informed republican opinion.

By deber B on 07/11/2009 4:27 pm
Libra Lady
Deber…great post….as said this morning…it’s obama’s economy now….he can’t hide behind President Bush any longer!!!!
By Libra Lady on 07/12/2009 4:45 pm
deber B
Good evening, Libra Lady!   Everything is at his feet now.   This morning on the Sunday rounds I was amazed what both the democrats and the republicans were saying about what is going on with this administration.
By deber B on 07/12/2009 5:35 pm
Libra Lady
Deber…yes it was quite interesting to listen to their doubts….it isn’t just us posters here on wow that are saying what we have been for the last couple of months, that’s for sure!!!
By Libra Lady on 07/12/2009 6:05 pm
Belinda Joy
I couldn’t have said it better myself!
By Belinda Joy on 07/14/2009 9:49 am
Marjorie C.

phyllis:  we won’t really see if it’s working until early fall.

Do you realize early fall is just two to three months away.  Do you really think anything will fall in place by then?

By Marjorie C. on 07/10/2009 5:19 pm