Wall Street Weekly | 07/24/2009 2:15 pm
Obama Slump Boosts Market, by Liz Peek

© AP
Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: wOw’s Wall Street Weekly with Liz Peek (Week of 7/20)
Editor’s Note: Liz Peek is a financial columnist and the author of wOw’s SHEconomics.
Has Obama’s slump in the polls boosted stock prices? The earth shook in Washington this past week as the administration’s push to enact health-care changes received a massive thumping from voters. Notwithstanding nonstop multiday hectoring from President Obama, polls indicate slipping support for his agenda, causing even his own party to slam on the brakes.To my mind, the sudden drop in enthusiasm for the president (his approval ratings are now below Bush’s at the same time in his presidency – a shocker, right?) means some tempering of his legislative free-for-all. For investors, the setbacks suggest a timeout from the endless stream of anti-business initiatives flowing from the Obama White House.
There has been serious (and in my view reasonable) alarm over the administration’s inclination to meddle with a wide swath of industry. The cap and trade bill, the financial regulatory overhaul, the upending of corporate tax law, the new consumer protection agency, the takeover of the autos – these are just some of the proposals the Obama team have spun out in recent months – creating uncertainty and anxiety while the country sank into a recession. Only a few days ago there was talk of a second stimulus bill, a prospect that scared the pants off inflation and deficit hawks. With Rasmussen reporting that only 25% of Americans believe that the stimulus bill passed earlier this year has been effective, I think we can assign that particular notion to the meat locker.
It is true that there are other reasons for the market’s delightful 38% rally in the Dow that we’ve seen since March and the astonishing 11% jump over the past eight days. Without a doubt the collapse in housing markets has stabilized, and job losses appear to be mitigating. Existing home sales were up 3.6% in June to an eight-month high, reducing inventories of unsold units to 8.9 months, the lowest so far this year. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of unemployment claims dropped to 566,000 in the latest period, down from the peak of 659,000 in April. A decline of this magnitude has in the past confirmed the end of a recession.
Moreover, second-quarter profits exceeded expectations for about 75% of those companies reporting so far. Reports out have beaten both analysts’ forecasts and in many cases the firms’ own projections, leading to a boost in estimates for the balance of the year. Normally some 60% of companies report better-than-expected results, since corporations know that coming in shy of projections is the quickest route to the doghouse. These surprises, though, seem genuine. When companies presented their outlooks around the beginning of the year, it looked like the U.S. was heading into a depression. Visibility was poor, to say the least.
Though all these factors have boosted the stock market, there remains enormous uncertainty, much of it tied to government policy. It has been decades since the government of the United States has appeared so anti-business, and decades since the need to support business has been so vital. We need people to be put back to work and while job losses may be slowing, companies are still loathe to add to payrolls. Increases in second-quarter profits came primarily from cost-cutting, including layoffs. Consequently, productivity rose to an impressive 3.8%. Revenue growth was weak at best.
Only the government is hiring. Ultimately, government spending can only provide a modest and temporary boost to the nation’s economy since it is coupled to rising deficits. At some point, paying back those deficits requires higher incomes and tax revenues from the private sector.
Read more about: Approval Ratings, Barack Obama, Economy, George Bush, Health-Care Reform, Liz Peek, Money, News, Obama Administration, Paula Danziger, Recession, Stimulus Bill, U.S., Wall Street Weekly























429 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment
LL,
Whaddya’ wanna’ bet the market tanks if ObamaCare is approved in the next month?
I’m hearing that obama has extended the "gotta have it on my desk" date until the end of the year. I’m also hearing that they’re still trying to shoot for the August deadline.
How come I don’t feel like I know anything???
Libra Lady,
What really bothers me is what’s NOT coming out……namely how the infinite majority of Republicans’ amendments will not be heard.
The very fact that it’s all so convoluted and causing you to shake your head and hear the bells ought to give us all an idea as to how crumbly this ObamaCare is. You just don’t built a house on quicksand.
Who voted them in? NOT ME!
Well, it is refreshing to see that Wowowow is showing political balance afterall. Here is an article by Liz Peek dated July 1, 2009 describing the 5 Myths of Obama’s Health Care Plan——-good reading indeed!
Liz Peek
- FOXNews.com
- July 01, 2009
Obama’s 5 Health Care MythsThe United States does have to confront the reality that some people in this country are crushed by medical costs, and some receive inadequate treatment. But the debate over how to remedy these problems should be framed by facts, not myths.
If youre trying to follow the health care debate, you know there are some "truths" which have been repeated so frequently, and with such vehemence, that they have become gospel. How often have you heard "the costs are skyrocketing" or "our system is broken" or "Americans overwhelmingly support reform"? Here’s a heads-up: Some of these are simply baloney.
For instance, those pushing reform have described our healthcare system as "broken," thus in desperate need of overhaul. The primary evidence for this claim is a report issued by the World Health Organization in 2000 which ranked the U.S. 37th in overall "health performance" despite being number one in spending. (It is noteworthy that the WHO no longer publishes such a ranking — deeming the process "too difficult.") Betsy McCaughey, in a recent talk before the Manhattan Institute, noted that the rankings were heavily weighted towards social goals, and less towards the effectiveness of medical care. In other words, the WHO studied the distribution of medical attention, and the fairness in financial contribution, placing as much weight on such issues as on actual performance.
Further, according to Princeton professors Uwe Reinhardt and Tsung-mei Chung, the rankings "are not based on the actual values achieved by the nation, but on the ratio of the achieved values to the values that ought to have been achieved, given the country’s educational attainment and spending." They point out that the rankings, in effect, were determined by the opinions of those surveyed. In short, this is hardly a scientific assessment.
Even against this bias, the U.S. ranked number one in "responsiveness" — that is in actually delivering care, but got hammered on "fairness of financial contribution." The country that scored highest on that metric — Colombia — ranked 82nd on responsiveness. Would you rather be treated in Colombia or in the U.S.?
The WHO publishes reams of data that may more accurately describe the medical care a country receives. For instance, life expectancy is a decent proxy for the overall level of health and healthcare in a country. The life expectancy of those born in the U.S. was 78 years in 2007, up from 77 in 2000 and 75 in 1990. This figure is not at the top of the heap — Japan’s sushi-eaters can hope to live to 83, for instance, while a number of Western countries (Iceland, Italy and Australia among others) are at 82, but it is certainly respectable and better than most. The Russian Federation, for instance, has a life expectancy of only 66 years. Another gauge of a country’s medical support is infant mortality. In the U.S., the WHO says, 4 out of every 1,000 births ends in death; only a handful of countries report a lower figure. Statistics show that 99% of births in the US are attended by "skilled health personnel" — a figure only surpassed by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tuvalu, among others. (Do we detect the challenges confronted by the WHO’s data collectors?)
Myth number two about our healthcare system is that the growth in spending on healthcare has accelerated in recent years. In fact, in 2007 — the most recent year for which we have data — health care spending decelerated, to 6.1% from 6.7% in 2006. More interesting is that the rate of growth has dropped every year since 2002, and that the average increase so far this decade — 7.4%, though modestly ahead of the growth rate in the 1990s, trails far behind the 11.3% increase rate of the 1980s and 12.7% of the 1970s. Health care spending may be growing too rapidly, but it is not accelerating.
Myth number three about health care spending is that the increases in outlays portray a system "out of control" and bloated by greed and inefficiency. In fact, some argue that the growth in the sector stems directly from the aging of the population and advances in medical technologies. Knee replacements are expensive, but they are also now commonplace. Lipitor and other statin drugs cost a great deal, but they also prolong life and can eliminate heart disease. (The unfortunate reality is that prolonging life costs money, too.)
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, from 1997 to 2007 the number of prescriptions purchased in the US rose 72%, while the population grew just 11%. Over half of Americans take one prescription drug on a regular basis; one in five takes four or more. Overall, prescription drugs account for only 10% of the healthcare dollar, but this category has grown faster than overall spending. The reality is that Americans choose to spend money on the best treatments available.
Our fourth healthcare myth is that Americans overwhelmingly want to see the system changed. It just ain’t so. A Gallup poll conducted late last year showed that 49% of respondents wanted to maintain the current system, while 41% wanted it to change. In a more recent Rasmussen poll, only 50% of all voters are in favor of the president’s reform plan. A mere 12% of respondents think their healthcare coverage will improve under the proposed overhaul, while 37% expect their coverage to be worse. The remaining 37% do not expect to see any change. In other words, 74% of Americans do not see healthcare reform improving their own situation.
The fifth myth is that Americans are deeply concerned about extending health insurance to those not covered. In fact, a recent Kaiser Foundation poll found that 54% of Americans are not willing to pay more — either in higher health insurance premiums or higher taxes — to increase the number of Americans that have coverage. As a country, we are concerned about the rise in healthcare expenditures, and are heartbroken when we hear of people who have been denied medical treatment, but we do not want to pick up the tab for them.
The United States does have to confront the reality that some people in this country are crushed by medical costs, and some receive inadequate treatment. But the debate over how to remedy these problems should be framed by facts, not myths.
OMG You have to read what happened in Dallas!!! Too funny …
How a Local Rally For Obama’s Health Care Proposal Turned Into a Rally Against It By Kimberly Thorpe in It’s Gettin’ All Political Up in This Piecehttp://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2009/07/how_a_rally_for_obamas_health.php
Been Down So Long It Seems Like Up To Me, the precocious 1966 novel by the late Richard Farina, defined the late 1960s counterculture. The stock market rally that’s pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average back above 9000 for the first time since early January could be given the same title, and it might well come to define the much-wished-for financial recovery.
What’s pushing the stock market upward? Mainly, unexpectedly positive second-quarter corporate profits. But those profits aren’t being powered by consumers who have suddenly found themselves with a lot more money in their pockets. The profits are coming from dramatic cost-cutting — including, most notably, payroll cuts. If a firm cuts its costs enough, it can show a profit even if its sales are still in the basement.
The problem here is twofold. First, such profits can’t be maintained. There’s a limit to how much can be cut without a business eventually disappearing — becoming, in effect, a balance sheet in space. Secondly, when businesses slash payrolls to show profits, consumers end up with even less money in their pockets to buy the things businesses produce. Even if they hold on to their jobs, they’re likely to fear that they won’t have the jobs for long, which causes them to retreat even further from the malls.
Most companies that have reported earnings so far have surpassed analyst’s estimates, but that only means that earnings have been less bad than analysts had feared. According to the chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, if the companies that haven’t yet reported earnings show the same pattern a the companies that have reported so far, overall corporate earnings will have dropped 25 percent over the past year. That may not be as much of a drop as analysts had expected, but it’s still awful. Operating income for companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far has been almost 29 percent lower than last year, more than 80 percent lower than 2007, according to Standard and Poors. Ouch.
"Better-than-expected" is Wall Street’s euphemism these days for "we’re happier than we thought we’d be." But Wall Street is in the business of cheer leading, even when there’s really nothing to cheer about. It wants investors to think positively, on the assumption that positive thinking can be a self-fulfilling prophesy: If investors begin putting more money into the market, then the market will automatically rise, leading more investors to put in more money — until, that is, the rally ends because nothing has fundamentally changed in the real economy.
Keep your eye on the real economy, where unemployment and underemployment keep rising. It’s not as much fun as cheering and investing right now, but it’s far safer."
- Robert Reich
Gee… imagine having a financial columnist who reports on the financial health of America instead of merely using every bit of news as a way to focus on and criticize the President of the United States…. what a concept!
Most of us understand that unemployment is a lagging indicator.
Better to watch new orders for capital goods, or inventory pull though, imo.
When new orders pick up companies hire (or re-hire) labor to fulfill new orders.
Simple supply and demand.
www.EconomicIndicators.gov
Huffington Post balanced reporting!