Poll | 05/15/2008 12:00 am

Is it possible to avoid a recession?

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According to Warren Buffet world’s richest man, $62B, we are already in in and it will longer and deeper than folks imagine…according to him….he and other billionaires like George Soroa support Obama. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpdDdzH3VqU Empire Strikes Barack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lvc-azCXY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQZL5BF715g&feature=related Robert DeNiro for Obama http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44do49DDZ8U&feature=related

By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 05/15/2008 1:32 am

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We are already in recession, and have been for some time. Big problem to be concerned with right now is inflation. This whole issue of rising gas prices is having a huge affect on our pocketbooks. I’m amazed every time I go to the grocery; and I’m just buying food for one!

By Diana T on 05/15/2008 9:01 am

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Can’t see how - when we are this far in debt.

By Maggi D on 05/15/2008 4:01 am

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Only if donkeys learn to fly!!!!!!! And I don’t ever expect to see that.

By doll lady on 05/15/2008 7:21 am

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We are in IT!

By Jeannot Kensinger on 05/15/2008 7:38 am

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We are not in a recession. There has not been a negative GDP yet…The 1Q08 GDP growth was actually better than expected… as were lost job numbers, employment and consumer spending. Be wary of gloom-and-doom media headlines…

By Kay Mitchell on 05/15/2008 8:29 am

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Kay -Tell THAT to the people who are paying $4.00/gallon at the pump, or who can’t afford a gallon of milk for their kids, or whose jobs were just eliminated, or whose homes are in forclosure. It’s everywhere in my community and it’s tragic. Numbers? Statistics? Phooey!

By Maurine H on 05/15/2008 9:49 am

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Hi Maurine, No one discounts the fact that food and energy prices are high, unemployment is rising, and the housing market is in a deep correction. The fact remains that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and thus far, that has not been the case. The fact that Warren Buffett thinks there is a recession does not change the facts. Warren is an investor - not an economist - and he also is positive long term on the economy. A poster in a previous discussion listed many pundits who thought the economy was in recession, then recommended investment in Euro-based mutual funds. Anyone who followed that recommendation would have lost money, as the value of the dollar has steadily risen from that point forward. I, too, am disturbed with all the naysayers. Facts are facts, and it does no good to use anecdotal observations to frighten people into behaviors that may well exacerbate current financial conditions.

By K O on 05/15/2008 10:54 am

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I am that person paying $4 at the pump!! But I am also a person who understand that the price of gas is determined by basic economics- supply and demand. As is the cost of food. I work in finance, and believe me, I have watched as my circle of colleages has diminished by 80% (talking DOZENS of people, just in my little circle). My job is also on the line- but I was smart and saved my bonuses instead of buying flat screens. (I am also willing to bet that none of my colleagues entered into subprime mortgages-another story). Anyway, it’s tough for everyone, but I personally think a slight recession, or atleast the fear of one, will do America good- we’ve spent so much time thinking that we could have it all. Now we are remembering how to save and live without the ipods, TVs, cars, etc…Enough with the entitlement!

By Kay Mitchell on 05/15/2008 11:43 am

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Kitty and Kay - I appreciate the explanations. I guess, in view of what I’m seeing in my community, that “recession” is a semantic term and perhaps I shouldn’t labor over whether or not we’re in one. But the people I’m talking about do not have your advantages. They are in service industries and they just aren’t making it. Or they have college educations, are in mid-level management , but the companies that have brought them to our area are closing. Stores downtown are going out of business right and left, and I know that the owners and employees are worried sick. Sub-primes aren’t the issue- just feeding the family and being able to continue to rent an apartment are the concerns. I agree that Americans have had it relatively easy (some Americans, that is) for a long time. But we are forcing more people into poverty every day, we’re deepening the deficit, and we’re spending billions on a war that no one supports. Something is out of whack and I don’t think it’s the middle and lower middle classes. Maybe you two have some thoughts about a “correction”, because I sure don’t know what we’re going to do.

By Maurine H on 05/15/2008 12:24 pm

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Hi Maureen, I hear what you are saying. While you may feel like there is a recession in your life, in your community, in circle of friends, it may not be technically true, but you certainly FEEL like there is one. It seems that the issue you might be expressing is the widening gap between “haves” and “have nots,” illustrated by the fact that CEO average pay is 300 times that of his or her workers, compared with 65 times in 1965. That is a legitimate problem, that need be addressed. It seems that it’s hard to answer the question “can we avoid a recession” when you feel you are already in one. While a combination of stimulus spending and the effects of the Fed’s lower interest rates may help to avoid a recession in the technical sense, the wage gap remains and will likely result in more and more people feeling that the economy has left them behind.

By K O on 05/15/2008 1:48 pm

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Kitty - Personally, I’m fortunate to be in secure circumstances. But my community, which is made up of a fairly high percentage of extremely wealthy people, and what was a strong middle class, and a small just-above-the-poverty-level group is changing dramatically as I described above. It really has little to do with feelings and more with observation. I’m curious to see what the stimulus package actually accomplishes because everyone (and I mean everyone literally) I’ve spoken to is either going to use the money to pay down bills/credit cards or plans to stick it in the bank. The lowered interest rates don’t translate to lower mortgage payments so people with hefty mortgages aren’t getting a lot of relief. I used to live in a country where the tiny middle class was sandwiched between the very wealthy who controlled government and the infrastructure, and the poorest of the poor. The imbalance led to absolute chaos (and still does). I hate to see the U.S. going in that direction. It matters little to me whether it’s called a “recession” or a “slow-down” - it’s just a bad sign when a substantial part of the population is struggling to keep a roof over their heads and to buy food.

By Maurine H on 05/15/2008 4:46 pm

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Recessions are “normal” in our economy.

By JeJe De on 05/15/2008 8:35 am

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1)My brother just got a raise and bonus at his $100,000+ IT job. 2)My sister-in-law says her fine art portrait business is up from last year. She caters to the “carriage trade” so a tax on millionaires would not be good for her business. 3)I see help wanted signs out around our town. 4)Our daughter and son-n-law install security systems during the summer - and she says they are very busy, 6 days a week. 5) My father, who chooses to work in retirement, says his hours have just been increased at the radio store where he works. 6) My husband’s business is up from last year. 7) Ford made a $100 million dollar profit last quarter. People are trading in their trucks and buying cars. 8) No recession which is defined as 2 quarters of negative growth - or six months of negative growth. Things are already turning around. 9) Our friend is selling her home - At her first open house this Sunday had 6 pre-qualified couples come look - 1 couple came back in the evening for a second look. 10)There are cutbacks: The annual 8th grade bash that the school puts on for the students at a cost of $17,000 has been slashed to $7000. (Here in NJ we pay $20,000 per pupil in taxes.)

By Bella Mia on 05/15/2008 10:49 am

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We are certainly in an economic crisis, but technically it is not a recession. Not yet. Maybe we need another word. Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. We don’t have that. What we have is inflation, loss of jobs, economic insecurity, an aging population, a falling dollar, a foreclosure crisis and deficits in public budgets [and unmaintained infrastructure] caused in part by unwise tax cuts and in part by unwise federal spending.

By Elizabeth Bennett on 05/15/2008 11:33 am