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Wall Street Weekly | 10/03/2008 10:00 am

5 Things Congress and Voters Don't Understand About the $700B Bailout Plan, by Liz Peek

By Liz Peek
© Shutterstock

Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: wOw’s Wall Street Weekly with Liz Peek (Week of 9/29)

Editor’s Note: Liz Peek is a financial columnist.

Oh, to be Warren Buffett, and have money at the bottom! OK, so I was a little too optimistic last week in thinking we had hit bottom, but then I never for a moment imagined that the loons in Congress wouldn’t pass the rescue package.

We have here a massive failure to communicate by the administration (not for the first time) and an equally impressive reminder of the limitations of Congress. With voters expressing outrage over a perceived $700 billion “bailout” of Wall Street, representatives in contested seats caved, partly because they didn’t understand what they were doing.

Consider Senate majority leader Harry Reid’s ominous warning of "a major insurance company, one with a name that everyone knows, that is on the verge of going bankrupt." That sure helped matters. Suddenly, the large insurance companies, which had been doing OK in the market, sank precipitously, despite managements scrambling to reassure investors that they were, in fact, solvent. Yikes!

Here’s what Congress, and voters, don’t understand. The banks are making no new loans. They still are having to write down mortgage-related assets as home prices sink and they are worried that doing so will further harm their credit ratings. A drop in their credit standing might encourage massive withdrawals from anxious depositors, so they are hoarding cash. At the same time, they are facing rising demands from corporate clients who are unable to sell bonds or to access the commercial paper market. These borrowers pay fees to have lines of credit with the banks, that are contractually committed to meet those demands, but in truth they never anticipate having to do so.

So, this is not about Wall Street. As voters are beginning to discover, it is about your local car dealership being unable to finance inventory, your favorite hairdresser not being able to replace worn equipment and your nephew, the brilliant college grad, not being able to fund a super new business.

This is the result of a locked-up credit market, which began to freeze a year ago and is now all but shut down. The U.S. commercial paper market shrank by $200 billion in the past three weeks – an unheard-of development and truly scary. Another milestone is that the TED spread, (the difference between three-month US treasury rate and the LIBOR rate) which indicates the fear level among bankers, hit 360 basis points yesterday— a record; normally this difference in interest rates averages 50 basis points.

41 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Carole Meagher
Ms. Peek, With all due respect, you are wrong about the need of this bailout. Banks are not with their “tits in a wringer” because they are worried about mortgages defaulting. Banks created this problem by creating complex mortgage-related securities using spreadsheets and “fuzzy math.” Like tulips, dot-com stocks and llamas, they valued them based on what ever crazy-arsed price the last bozo paid. Then, they kept borrowing from each other… and then the music stopped. The $700B bailout only passed because another $150B of pork was piled onto this train wreck… tax advantage for NASCAR facilities, removing the duties on children’s wood arrows… our elected officials didn’t even TRY to pretend they were adding oversight or protection for taxpayers! If the government wants to spend fix the economy, how about creating $700B in bonds or backed loans for mortgages, small business loans or federal infrastructure that goes directly to those who need it, rather than laundering it through a couple of billionaires on Wall Street? Please don’t add to the myth that the only way to unlock the economy is to lavish money, without strings, onto Hank Paulson’s rich friends who were probably holding his puppy hostage until this dreck passed.
By Carole Meagher on 10/06/2008 6:02 am
Carole Meagher
Ms. Peek, you have GOT to be kidding me… “The good news is that Bill Gross at Pimco, probably the smartest investor in fixed income instruments in the world, thinks the taxpayers have a good chance of making money on those asset purchases. It will depend on what the government pays for them of course, but I think it’s highly likely that these mortgage-backed securities are worth more than the going rate of 25c on the dollar.” If the banks don’t think these are worth anything, how on earth can a few government drones properly assess the value on them? Remember, the government isn’t buying the mortgages directly. I’m assuming you know how mortgage-backed securities work. The problem isn’t the straightforward versions in which the homeowners pay their mortgages, then the mortgage holder pays the investors who supplied the cash. When analysts who think they are too smart to work for a living decide that they want to strip out and sell just one portion of an interest payment stream, then sell off the default risk in an insurance-type model, or arbitrage interest rates against commodities… then the complexities of the real world kick in and suddenly their spreadsheets can’t calculate their models. And this whole thing about buying the “lowest priced assets” first is a joke, trying to make the whole process sound somehow conservative and rational. I can’t wait to see how they consistently develop and apply a risk-adjusted rate of return.
By Carole Meagher on 10/06/2008 6:21 am
Amelie Poulain
There are some things I have heard in circles that are more frightening than you can ever imagine. This information may have been what paled the team of officials that first sat down when this whole thing was first discussed. Doesn’t anyone wonder what was said in that room that first night? I do. It must have been far more information than what WE heard otherwise the public wouldn’t take exception to what’s at the core of this bill- aside from all the Bull….t inserted. But that’s another story. From what I understand by connecting the dots, the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) which is essentially THE bank for all the Central Banks around the world has requested an audit of the Federal Reserve. If you can imagine how bizarre this is, you might get what’s going on in the background. Let’s remember now, the Federal Reserve is a PRIVATELY owned organization. It is now perceived as being a banking facility of the government because it is now linked to the Treasury. But essentially the Fed was/is a private company owned by some of the richest families in the world, not just America, and it’s charged with the responsibility of printing money FOR the USA government. Something is going on to cause them to request an audit. I liken it to a family squabble. There is something none of us understand in the form of a breech of trust at the highest levels. When systemic corruption or questionable business practices are suspected at that level of banking, it is beyond unconscionable. If this ever settles down, people should be going to jail. Now imagine how fast the escalation of the banks interest rates are at that level of operation. Every day the bill didn’t pass drove the world closer to the brink. Every day the American public fought the rescue plan. Every day the American media who is essentially stupid and are basically pretty people who are propped up in front of a camera spewing anything and everything out of their mouths to attract an audience….coined the inflamatory term of “Bailout” making the public even more outraged. This forced the hand of your government officials to vote against the bill out of YOUR ignorance as to the true nature of the rescue bill, and out of fear of losing their jobs in the next election. They complied with your wishes as the proletariat who were thinking this bill was a bailout. This is what caused the dominoes to tumble, initiating the collapse of your entire world! ALL the BANKS’ interest rates have gone up as a result of the Banker’s Banks losing faith in the whole system, and it was passed down to you, the innocent consumer, because the rates were raised at the VERY top. If the banking practices at the very top were sound this never would have happened. Wall Street was also involved, but not the sole cause. What happened at the Federal Reserve to make the BIS call them on it? This is the question I want to ask. Lesley Stahl? 60 minute piece please? Can you fly to Basel and ask them please? What I would like to know is if the banks could have maintained the interest rates and forfeit the same profit margins they were used to (fat cats) and NOT rock the system would any of this happened? Would we have been able to prevent people from losing their homes? If the government had stepped in earlier, would this have happened? Is there a balancing point where the banks really didn’t have to raise interest rates and effect this disaster? Could they have survived with flat business profits for a few years rather than force the rates up with marginal home owners which caused the crash and burn? Every day the interest is still compounding at astronomical rates that with bring down the entire way of life as we know it if it continues to go unchecked. This is how serious this is. It is more serious at the top. Many banks will not survive compounding interest rates and fail. Many a lowly consumer, will be buried in his own debt which might force you to sell your houses all at the same time and force the prices down even further. But be prepared. Be prepared for civil disobedience. Be prepared to band together as one and help each other to prevent civil disobedience. Things could really change for the worse—-no matter which President you elect. The other thing you should know is that if you actually turn the channel to another country’s TV station and watch THEIR news, or dare yourself to click on a “foreign” website like the BBC or the CBC or a foreign reputable newspaper website like the Globe and Mail you will get another perspective. Everywhere else in the world they are discussing the GLOBAL financial crisis. I have never seen or heard those words anywhere in the American media. Just making a point. Educate yourselves beyond your own borders. The rest of the world is also in trouble because they also bought the fake American dream in the form of those mortgage backed securities. If there ever was a time that we need to practice the age-old “Love thy brother as thyself. It is now.
By Amelie Poulain on 10/06/2008 3:07 pm
Christine Cline
Wow Amelie, how did you find out about all this? Is there an exact website address that you could recommend that I go to to learn more about this. I know very little beyond my own limited personal experiences. Is anyone coming up with real and good ideas for what we can do next, speaking from the average person’s perspective that is.
By Christine Cline on 10/06/2008 5:10 pm
Amelie Poulain
Wow. Just as I complain that you cannot find more world news in America, they did a small piece on CNN just now, on the fact that four other major markets fell today 5 - 8%!!!!!!!!! I stand corrected. And they used the words Global crisis. Well well. CC, I read everything I can and I google key phrases and see what comes up. Much information is out there for the very curious. For example even something simple like “What is the big picture in America” will lead you to interesting places/videos/interviews. www.consciousmedianetwork.com is also cool for those of you who like to colour outside the lines. I also network with interesting people all over. But even the staid and steady types are worried right now, believe me. By the way, I think the phrase is “Love thy neighbour as thyself” oops. Brain typo. :) I have heard every possible reaction. If I lived in America I would think seriously about what I am about to write at least in small increments. Trust your little inner voice and do the following when it feels timely. “Hold on” is the first notion. If you have not reacted in time to avoid the free fall then hang in and see. Diversify ASAP. Better idea as far as I can see if you actually have assets/stocks/etc. and can do this. Sell off everything you really don’t need at home and convert it to cash/coins. If you have a deeper bank account then convert some of that to at LEAST 80% pure silver or real gold. Sell off the cottage, the second car, that third plasma TV, and buy silver and gold. Put it in safe insured places/ accounts/bonds etc. Hide a fireproof hidden safe at home and get some cash in small bills to last a month or two at least in case your bank card just stops working one day-even by no fault of your own. You should be preparing for food shortages, getting a pantry together that you can live on for awhile or use the food as a barter exchange with neighbours. Just be safe and keep your pantries FULL of staples. Keep extra large bottled water around. Emergency gas can. Extra Propane tank for BBQ. Anything can happen. Plan for temporary dilemma. Glitches in the system. Gas is already scarce at times. Get bars put on your windows so if things get desperate you are protected from looting starving people. IF you are lucky enough to have a yard, clear out a big section of your beloved flower bed and fertilize it, and plant food instead. This you can eat yourself & use to trade for things you don’t have. These are subtle things that you can do, one at a time, without drawing massive panic or being called paranoid. This is not about being paranoid. Its just about realizing that there may be some big glitches along the way before it changes. The whole country isn’t at risk. But the whole infrastructure is. There are already cities in Ca. that are bankrupt this year. This is your harbinger. Its 13% of your entire economy. Watch it closely. There will be more. When no one owns the homes anymore in a town how can they collect taxes to maintain the city infrastructure? And most of all please realize that this rescue is NOT going to stop things from sliding even more. Today was your first clue. Another 800 points. Remember the “war” was only going to cost X and ended up costing trillions more. And in the style of Biden, I repeat, Trillions more.. sorry to joke about something so damn serious. Get safe. Don’t be stupid. Protect yourselves. Form a community group now so everyone knows what to do in a crisis. And stock up at home. Start there. Take one step at a time. At least it will do no harm to step up your protectionist measures. And for those of you who will react, drowning my email in reactionary blabber, and say I am a conspiracy theorist. Don’t bother. What you don’t realize is that I really really hope I am wrong. I pray that I am wrong. But I have a right IMHO to express my opinion. And if I help one person make a smart decision then it was worth taking the risk of writing it down in such a public forum. Very few others will tell you this because it will cause more panic than you can imagine. So just do it quietly and if it feels like it rings true given where and how you currently live. Trust your little inner voice and follow through if it feels correct. That’s all I can say.
By Amelie Poulain on 10/06/2008 6:47 pm
C A Rose
Amelie, I have already begun receiving live (not a machine) phones calls from people trying to get me to invest in silver. Buying silver and gold would have been an excellent idea when gold was selling for $300 an ounce, and silver at $12. Buying it now is cost prohibitive. The dollar is worth less and precious metals are just beginning to peak again at over $1,000+ an ounce. I do agree having these metals on hand is a good idea because the ‘Gold Standard’ as I understand it is consistent around the globe and if you can’t use it to obtain cash when the dust settles you can use it to barter. CA
By C A Rose on 10/07/2008 12:54 am
beverly linens
Amelie, I suggest keeping interest rates at about 7% or 8% which would allow individuals to make decent income on savings accounts making money available at the local level and banks making loans to locals and keeping the loans in house. Of course forcing builders to build houses ordinary people could afford and forcing employers to pay a living wage and facing the fact that some people can’t own or maintain a house. The mortgage payment is just a part of what it takes to own a home. Just and idea. I remember when my mother turned 65 in 1978. She had worked at JC Penny’s for 27 years and decided to work for 5 more years so her stock could go up and she could have a decent retirement. We [ex-husband and I] got cought in the mess in the early 80’s. We sold a ranch with an adjustable loan with the Federal Land Bank that was at the rate of 8%. We wrapped it with a five year contract at 11 1/2 % with a balloon. With the proceeds of that contract we turned around and bought a larger ranch with a contract at 10%. The bottom fell out of the market and when the adjustable rate loan started going up we were stuck, it went all the way to 16%. We could sell the ranch we bought and there was no money available to refinance the underlying loan on the first ranch. We were stuck for five years. We didn’t go broke but I sure thought we might. We just slogged through and salavaged about 1/3rd of what we started out with.
By beverly linens on 10/07/2008 6:17 am
Christine Cline
Beverly, what you mentioned about forcing employers to pay a living wage is a sticky subject. It has been my observation through most of my adult life that each time minimum wage has been raised absolutely everything else goes up as well. So, the average earner instead of gaining .20 to 1.25 per hour, what ever the raise actually loses money. I would propose that the minimum wage be raised and then a price freeze be enforced on everything else. The corporations, business owners, etc. would just have to do more business, sell more goods, etc. if they desired to keep their profits the same. Else they would just have to be happy for their fellow man that he can be a little closer to monetary equality with himself. Much of this problem has to do with the fact that many of the rich want to stay rich and absolutely do not want that line between them and the COMMON man to dwindle. This is compounded by the fact that many people would rather delude themselves and live off of virtual money (credit) thereby appearing to be richer than he is than to face up to reality and either be happy with what he can truely afford or else expend his energies on how he can be more industrious, money savy, creatively entreurpenural, etc. But, no matter what the end result is the same. The real question now is where do go from here? Or more importantly how do we get there.
By Christine Cline on 10/07/2008 7:31 am
beverly linens
Christine, I didn’t mean force employers to pay more, I meant the market would force them. I think we can use taxes as a method to reward or punish for good or destructive behavior in the market place. I still think pegging the mortgage interest rate at 8% would make income from savings accounts high enough for people to start leaving their money in local savings accounts making money available for low risk local loans, the banks can keep the loans in house and I think the boat will rise accordingly. You are right about the minimum wage. I don’t know where you live but here in Oregon it is pushing $10 and people still can’t make a living. Maybe we should tax profitable corporations for every job they produce that doesn’t pay a living, not minimum but living wage. We are actually subsidizing their profitability because we have to pay for the housing and food for their employees. if they were paying their employees properly their profits might be smaller. The present squeeze started for me five years ago. I own a triplex as my retirement. The bottom fell out of the rental market, I guess because our renters were getting those 100% loans with low or no interest starting rates to buy homes. Of course you and I know the mortgage is just part of the cost of owning a home. I went from having to pick a new renter from at least seven or eight applicants, to putting an ad in the paper and receiving no calls. I have a great location and usually had people running to see it before I was ready, to nothing. I had to reduce my rents. Meanwhile the value was going up and property taxes were up, cost of insuring went up, utilities doubled and heating oil tripled. It has taken me five years to catch up. Now I’m discovering my applicants are not making a cent more than they were 8 years ago. They have to pay me a couple of hundred more because my costs have gone up and they aren’t keeping up either. They are standing in line again, in fact, more than before. I had a one bedroom available a month ago and stopped showing after receiving 12 applications. I just started taking names and numbers, to show if I couldn’t find a qualified renter in the first group. I couldn’t figure out how most of them could make it. I’m embarrassed to be charging $700 for a cute but small [630sq ft] apartment upstairs in a 108 year old house. Granted it is close in where the action is. For twenty years I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that squeezing the worker wasn’t smart. Just who did they plan to sell all that stuff to, that they were importing from around the world. The advice you were giving people about preparing for any eventuality was exactly what people were saying in the late sixties and early seventies, especially during the gas crises. The Mormons have a good plan for that eventuality, so do the Seventh Day Adventists. I remember putting some stuff aside at the time. I’m still working on a gallon of honey I bought at that time. As far as the rich I know what you mean. I have friends living in gated communities, that’s about ad un-american as you can get. I never thought we’d see that in Oregon of all places. I think it is embarrassing. I moved to the inner city [Portland, Oregon] twenty two years ago and moved even closer eleven years ago, I love it, even the bums.
By beverly linens on 10/07/2008 9:36 am
Christine Cline
Dear Beverly, I hope all goes well for you. It use to be down right rude to ask someone how much they make; but, now days it can be a necessity. If I was renting I think I would want the prospective tenant to be netting at least 3-4 times the asking rent. If they have children (especially a single parent, and I am one myself) I think I would want them to net at least 5 times the asking rent. It sounds steep; but, now days people have a lot more monthly bills i.e. cell phone(s), Internet, numerous insurances, etc which (stupidly) they consider a higher priority than a roof over their heads. Saddly I have seen people living in their cars while paying upwards of $400.00 or more a month on their cell phone bills. Yet when I suggested they get rid of the phones and put a roof over their heads they would not hear of it, all the while lamenting about their homelessness.. As for families working with children here the going rate for child care is $155.00 a week per child. So in other words one job would be needed to pay the childcare and another to pay every thing else. Raising children is very, very expensive. You can not gurantee that your tenants won’t lose their jobs. But; maybe if they start out as I suggested you might have fewer turnovers, making your profit a little nicer. Now days maybe even though they should not have to it might be good for the landlord, bank, etc.. to decide based on the prospective tenants income since so many are not making that decision very wisely themselves. What ever happened to the old days when parents taught their children how to balance a checkbook, how to budget, how to save and most importantly to always pay off any debts first when the paycheck arrives. Necessities such as rent, utilities, and any other survival necessities should be treated as debts, therefore always paid first, even before that pop on the drive home from work.
By Christine Cline on 10/07/2008 1:21 pm
C A Rose
Liz P, I wondered if you had read this article in Sunday’s New York Times? http://www/nytimes.com/2008/10/05/business/05fannie.html?th&emc=th… Is this the new blame game? CA
By C A Rose on 10/06/2008 3:24 pm