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SHEconomics | 02/04/2009 2:10 pm

Attention Shoppers: It's a Half-Price Stock Sale! by Liz Peek

By Liz Peek
Editor’s Note: Liz Peek is a financial columnist and the author of wowOwow’s Wall Street Weekly. Liz Peek’s SHEconomics series, herewith, is scheduled to become a book. Click here for your introduction.

wOw women are smart cookies, and for sure they are good shoppers. So, when they see a “50% off” sale, they are tempted to buy. The question is: Should you buy stocks the way you buy cashmere sweaters?

The answer is: maybe. If a company’s stock has been cut in half and the basic operating outlook for the company is unchanged, then it may well be a compelling buy. Unfortunately, that is not usually the case. Today, the miserable economy has mucked up the outlook for most corporations. Consequently, analysts are trying to sort out companies’ prospects in this brave new world, to determine where stocks should sell. They are, in fact, trying to answer the questions on everyone’s minds: Is it too early to buy? What is a stock really worth? Are we there yet?

These are the questions that can make us all crazy, because of course there are no firm answers. However, there are benchmarks   – generally accepted guideposts to valuing stocks that keep the pros from losing their marbles at times like this.

I’ve been reading some of the letters that professional money managers send out to clients to let them know how things are going (badly) and how they see the future (murkily). For all their vagueness (I am dying for someone to tell me: this is absolutely how all this mess is going to sort itself out), these communications are quite comforting. Their messages reassure me that the grown-ups among us think we will survive this calamity. Moreover, some see value in today’s downtrodden share prices. 

How do these pros approach valuing stocks? The most common method is to compare share prices to earnings, described by the so-called P/E ratio. A company whose stock is selling at $100 and that is expected to earn $10 this year is said to be selling at ten times this year’s estimate. If the company made $5 per share over the past four quarters, the stock is selling at 20 times, “trailing 12 months’ earnings.” Simple, right?

Of course, life is hardly ever so straightforward. For instance, what if a company made money from operations last year but, like Citigroup, wiped away all its income with write-downs? Then you can talk about a P/E based on operating earnings or one based on “as reported” earnings, which would include the one-time charges. 

What if a company is losing money, like General Motors? How can you value a company that has no earnings? In this case an analyst might look at book value, or the value of net assets on the company’s books, divided by the number of shares outstanding. In the case of a company like General Motors, you might try to figure out what the company might earn on its assets in a better economy, using a more typical car sales figure as a starting point. You would describe that projection as “normalized” earnings, and try to price the stock on that. If for various reasons (and in GM’s case there are many) the company is unlikely to turn a profit anytime soon, you could also look at cash flow, or that amount of money the company is bringing in before deducting non-cash charges such as depreciation of its plant. 

18 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Diana T
Sure, it’s great to buy low and sell high. This is a great time to carefully buy stocks….if…that is if….you have the bucks and can afford it. But, then, it’s not a good idea to buy cashmere sweaters even if they are 75% off, and you have a lot of debt and few dollars to spend.
By Diana T on 02/04/2009 2:56 pm
Green Tears
Risk has always been a factor to consider when choosing stocks - now more than ever that needs to be remembered. A deal on cashmere is nice, but living within one’s means takes priority in today’s market.
By Green Tears on 02/04/2009 4:24 pm
Catherine Kaiman
Ohhh…did someone say cashmere? 75% off? where? oh nevermind, I am saving my pennies for a new kitchen and our trip to Cuba next summer.
By Catherine Kaiman on 02/04/2009 6:22 pm
Annie Wondering
http://www.farmertofarmer.ca CK, have a look at this and see what Wendy Holm is doing for Cuba.
By Annie Wondering on 02/05/2009 1:59 am
Catherine Kaiman
Thanks for that link Annie, Wendy Holm, is a wonderful example of what people can do!
By Catherine Kaiman on 02/07/2009 2:54 pm
starry Nite
Cuba- that sounds fantastic. I can just picture Earnest Hemingway sipping mojitos and smoking cigars.
By starry Nite on 02/04/2009 7:38 pm
Catherine Kaiman
I can’t wait Starry, I am so excited about this trip, even tho I am terrified of flying lol. I already have it set up with my Dr. to give me a shot of sedatives lol.
By Catherine Kaiman on 02/07/2009 2:56 pm
Annie Wondering
Ok, I’ll bite. Let’s see “how much money am I capable of flushing down the toilet?” That’s the amount of money I would be comfortable spending on stocks - at any price, sale or not. Down side: plug up the toilet, pay a plumber $60. Put in a buy order: pay the broker. Upside: maybe the plumber has a tip on a horse race. Maybe the broker isn’t the next scammer. Either way, I’d be happier with a new cashmere sweater.
By Annie Wondering on 02/05/2009 1:56 am
Kay Sara
Cattherine, how do you get to go to Cuba? Are you a U.S. citizen?
By Kay Sara on 02/05/2009 2:21 am
Amelie Poulain
I think she’s Canadian. We’re allowed to go any day of the week. But Americans can get to Cuba by flying there via Canada. Same way they get their cigars. I do not know if its legal or how they deal with stamps in the passport though..
By Amelie Poulain on 02/05/2009 2:22 pm
Catherine Kaiman
No I’m Canadian.
By Catherine Kaiman on 02/07/2009 2:52 pm
Kay Sara
Until the government finalizes and nnounces its plan for the banking system- this market is not going to settle down and inspire any confidence to draw in investors. And without the market calmed down - no stimulus plan will work. I am very frustrated that Obama would 1. first focus onslapping the bankers and capping their compensation. That plus putting some of these crooks in prison need to be done- but AFTER he announces whether he is going to nationalize banks (which would cause a stock market panic) or do the good bank-bad bank (make the market rally) or some thing else. This uncertainty of what’s he planning is leaving room for all kinds of speculation and rumor reporting - which last Friday and yesterday has wiped out more of American’s money needlessly.
By Kay Sara on 02/05/2009 2:30 am
%$#@* !@&*^!!
What idiot would buy stock in an evil company like Citigroup?
By %$#@* !@&*^!! on 02/05/2009 4:21 am
f p
And who has the bucks now to do this Ms Peek? Until the banks start loaning again and quit sitting on the cash, consumers of all types are not going to buy—try your nearest Target—I was in the local one here 2 days ago buying some coffee and counted less than 20 people—people aren’t buying. Until the banking system is cleaned up no one is going to be spending much at all except for necessities.
By f p on 02/05/2009 9:07 am
DeBúrca obj
Yawnnnnn. By f p on 02/05/2009 1:01 pm” ——- from the Palin thread I’m with you… let’s boycott all the Palin threads (that’s why I am posting this in here), at best they’ll stop running them, at LEAST the Palin lovers will get bored and leave!
By DeBúrca obj on 02/05/2009 8:43 pm