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Money | 04/25/2008 9:47 am

Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: Ouch! More Bad News ... and Admitting My Addiction

By Liz Peek
© Landov

EDITOR’S NOTE: Liz Peek is a financial columnist.

You know the economy is a little rocky when folks stop lining up for their double skim iced caramel macchiatos. I don’t know about you, but I am completely addicted to my morning coffee. Who could imagine this was a discretionary purchase?

It turns out that high gasoline prices, faltering confidence and slowing income growth are causing people to forgo all kinds of things – new washing machines, expensive handbags, and even their favorite high-priced java jolt. Or at least leading them to trade down.

That’s apparently what led to weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings at Starbucks, one of a number of consumer outfits that disappointed investors this week. McDonalds, UPS and American Express also showed signs of lackluster consumer spending. Starbucks’s management pointed out that business was softest in Florida and California where, not so coincidentally, housing problems are the most severe. This was no great surprise, but served to keep the spotlight on the mortgage crisis, which is ongoing.

You may have tuned out the bad news on the housing front, and who can blame you? It’s not fun to watch our most important asset wilt. Sorry to say, the downtrend continues; in March, the median price of a new home suffered the worst year-over-year drop in nearly four decades. Ouch. Also, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales dropped last month to the lowest level in 16 years.

The stock market, which has trended a little higher this week, seems a little bored by the bad news about housing and the credit markets. Who isn’t? Most of us have digested the concept that it’s going to take a while for housing to turn around; we’re ready to move on. Unfortunately, the aftershocks to the financial services industry, and to consumer spending, aren’t likely to disappear anytime soon. Bank of America started off this week by announcing a 77 percent drop in income, and National City Bank chimed in by lowering its dividend and raising $7 billion in cash.

The response to Bank of America’s misery was ho-hum; National City’s stock, on the other hand, was clobbered. Why? Because the company issued new stock at a huge discount, which will prove dilutive to shareholders going forward. This will not be a one-off. Almost all the banks and investment banks have raised new capital, and will probably raise more. The first wave was emergency funding for the likes of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, to offset balance sheet losses, and many of the infusions came from sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and China.

15 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

K O
Liz, since the capital markets are a discounting mechanism about six months in the future, what are your thoughts about this being a “bottoming out” period?
By K O on 04/25/2008 10:15 am
Liz Peek
Dear Kitty- I am so hoping it is! The market seems to be shrugging off bad news (such as today’s plunge in consumer confidence) as though looking ahead to better news later this year. that’s what a lot of economists are projecting too. I certainly hope so! So far the economic data is not too severe, and the tax rebates should help. I am concerned that consumers can’t access the equity in their homes going forward, and that has been a huge source of spending. On balance, I’m an optimist, and think the downturn will be shallow. Best - Liz
By Liz Peek on 04/25/2008 3:12 pm
Lady Gator
Kitty…Great question! I can’t seem to get any answers on that one! There are days I feel like taking my $$ - pull up the floor board and “Keep it for a rainy day”
By Lady Gator on 04/25/2008 3:15 pm
Kay Sara
Ladies, Here is a link to send a email to your senators to support the ERA bill that was defeated by Republicans 2 days ago. This link will tell you how your Senators voted. This bill is not dead- they only need 3 Republicans to vote humanely. http://www.congress.org/congressorg/webreturn/?url=/now/issues/alert/?al…
By Kay Sara on 04/25/2008 10:43 am
Bella Mia
We store a 3-6 month supply of dry foodstuff in #10 cans as part of our family preparedness program: Wheat, powdered milk, a variety of beans, freeze dried vegetables. Somehow, it makes me less anxious knowing it’s there….wall street journal article today says it’s time to start storing food. While I don’t think there will be empty store shelves, I do like the idea of buying food to store at cheap prices.
By Bella Mia on 04/25/2008 10:48 am
The Ole Crone The Ole Crone
Well Bella Bella hope you keep the refrigeration goin’ and gotcha a pile of wood and kindling to cook it, and the water to wash dem dishes. Anyone over 70 in here has never seen our country in such bad shape. That ole Liz is even old enough to remember the depression and oughta know better than to even mention anything as decadant as Starbucks when she should know there are plenty in this country right now that can’t afford cheap supermarket coffee. Now this my dear is a bit Elitist, you think? Hey, I was nice to you yesterday I think.
By The Ole Crone The Ole Crone on 04/25/2008 11:32 am
Bonnie Oliver
I was shopping at CostCo yesterday. The aisle where the rice was stocked was crowded with customers…..mostly Asian America customers. Limit of two bags per customer. If there is not a shortage this is the sure way to start one!
By Bonnie Oliver on 04/25/2008 1:17 pm
Liz Peek
Bonnie - you got that right! I was going to talk about that but ran out of space. Clearly, the media hype over grain shortages will create some spot problems as consumers stock their cupbards. We all get swept uo in these things, and without a doubt will make the situation worse!
By Liz Peek on 04/25/2008 3:15 pm
Lady Gator
Liz……….How do you feel about Tax Free Muni’s?
By Lady Gator on 04/25/2008 3:21 pm
The Ole Crone The Ole Crone
Whoaaaa, there IS a grain shortage! My gawd my gawd, who doesn’t know this? Do we think that 1 in 6 planetarians are suffering hunger because they’re lazy, idiots, and homeless? 1 in 6! Boy it’s gotta hit our front door and ring the bell before we get it? My gawd my gawd.
By The Ole Crone The Ole Crone on 04/25/2008 4:38 pm
Pamela Munro
Remember years ago when they talked about the dangers of over-population? Why is that a banned subject nowadays? When I heard about the rice, I thought we could go back to eating potatoes. We aren’t supposed to eat that much carbohydrate anyway. I wondered that in some article I read in Asia, was it - that eating bread instead of rice was considered a big sacrifice…Luckily I am an omnivore & can switch gears. Oh, P.S I haven’t had to give up Starbucks, because I make my own ice tea to carry around & only go there for meetings! I wonder that folks have been paying $30 a week for coffee?? Not me….
By Pamela Munro on 04/25/2008 7:47 pm
Jeannot Kensinger
I am seriously thinking about putting in a vegetable garden, we lived from our garden during WW2 in Europe , I think I may have to do it again. Big decision, flowers for the bees? or potatoes for me?
By Jeannot Kensinger on 04/26/2008 6:15 am
Tinka Parker
Liz, do you think the dollar is starting a slow recovery? If so what would this mean to the overall picture? (other than booking that vacation in Paris)
By Tinka Parker on 04/28/2008 4:43 pm
Thaddeus Z
With all the words that people want to hear, progress in every investment that we build is just enough to make people satisfy. Building investment with long-term goal of course must have a proper planning. Investment no longer seems like the sound and proper planning it once was, and getting cash advance loans seem to be a better idea than talking to a broker to buy stock. The way it seems to work on Wall Street seems to be that when things look good, everyone’s happy and does everything they can to make things stay that way but once they inexorably change, the stock market and all its agents and otherwise begin to panic.
By Thaddeus Z on 03/26/2009 11:46 pm