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Money | 04/11/2008 8:55 am

Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: wOw's Wall Street Weekly With Liz Peek (Week of 4/6)

© Landov

EDITOR’S NOTE: Liz Peek is a financial columnist.

Baseball season is underway, and this week scoreboards lit up on Wall Street, too.

Investors are watching first-quarter earnings reports to see just how companies are faring with the economic slowdown. Aluminum giant Alcoa started the season by announcing disappointing results and a gloomy projection, and UPS chimed in with bad news mid-week. Just this morning, General Electric reported worse-than-expected numbers, and dropped its forecast for the year as well. The news from GE, a broad-based “bellwether” company, will probably cause stocks to trade down today.

Retail stores reported weak March sales, but the reports were hard to decipher given that Easter (though not spring, I might add) came early this year. The happiest report this week came from Wal-Mart, which came in with rising sales and a more positive outlook for the year. Consumers, it seems, are trading down.

Otherwise, traders were cheered by the announcement on Monday that Novartis was buying eye-care company Alcon from Nestle. There have been precious few deals announced in recent months. The banks are all trying to trim the debt on their balance sheets, and have been reluctant to provide financing for takeovers. Not only do acquisitions tend to put a floor under stock prices, but these days they are a sign that the credit crisis may be easing.

The truth is, there’s plenty of money around. Money market funds are flush, as investors have cashed in riskier investments and sought safe havens, and hedge funds are sitting on piles of cash as well. What are they waiting for? Just as home buyers tend to think they’re better off waiting in this market, so traders are reluctant to commit, for fear of losing out on bargains later on. Not only do we have a credit crisis – we also have a crisis of confidence.

There’s talk that the lows (of mid-January) need to be “retested,” or that we have to see a real blowout down day in the market before investors will come back in. No one knows what might set off such a “capitulation” moment, and so far none of the bad news on housing or retail sales has spurred such a sell-off.

In fact, the market proved resilient this week, trading only modestly lower in spite of oil prices hitting an all-time high above $112 per barrel. The run-up stemmed from a surprisingly sharp draw-down in oil inventories and, I think, rampant speculation. Hedge funds are desperately looking for places to put money to work (they have to earn those huge fees, after all) and oil is as sure a bet as you can find today. The great thing about trading oil is that you’re unlikely to wake up to news that would cause a sharp sell-off. No one is likely to discover a huge new field overnight or an energy source that could really crimp demand. On the contrary, most of the surprises tend to boost prices higher – war, terrorist attacks, Hugo Chavez.

Against these soggy economic happenings, financial leaders from around the world will meet in Washington today. They will talk a lot about regulation and how to ease the credit crisis, but I don’t imagine much new will come out of this gathering.

This past week the Bank of England cut rates, again, responding to that country’s declining housing market, while the European Central Bank once again declined to do so. Consequently, the dollar, as you would expect, has strengthened a bit compared to the pound but continues to look sick next to the Euro. I think the ECB will have to cut rates eventually. There’s plenty of evidence of slowing in Germany, Spain and elsewhere, which will bring pressure on the central bank to ease.

Overall, I see some signs that the credit crisis is moving slowly off the front page, thank heavens. The investment into Washington Mutual by a private equity firm that was announced this week was heartening. In the next month, the government will begin to send rebate checks out, which will, not withstanding the media pooh-poohing, be quite significant (as in $2,100 for a family of five.) Let’s hope that begins to lift spirits, and sales. Now that would be a sign of spring!

38 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

MARK KLEIN, M.D.
Once upon a time diamonds were a girl’s best friend. Now I suggest owning Visa (V) and Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG).
By MARK KLEIN, M.D. on 04/11/2008 9:48 am
pm h
Good article. Mark Klein, am wondering why you think well of Fording Canadian Coat Trust?
By pm h on 04/11/2008 1:11 pm
Lisa Mullins
Money is a great thing to have, but the pursuit of it and the ease of acquiring credit has bitten us in our collective asses. I think our country is going to have to hit rock bottom before confidence in regained. Spend wise and cut up the credit cards! That’s what I’m doing.
By Lisa Mullins on 04/11/2008 9:49 am
Liz Peek
Lisa - I agree totally- I’m trying to cut back myself, though I know that if we collectively stop spending the economy will be in REAL trouble!
By Liz Peek on 04/12/2008 7:43 am
Ms. Dee
Don’t credit and confidence always go hand-in-hand? I’m no economist, but you don’t ask for credit unless you’re confident you can pay it back, right? And you don’t extend credit unless you’re confident you’ll be re-paid…with interest. Isn’t that just how it is? Same with understanding and security. Who feels secure when they don’t understand what’s going on? My question: I think I understand the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, except for one thing. What drove the property values down? I can understand people with a variable interest mortgage getting hit hard when the interest rates went up, and the ripple effect of the subsequent rise in mortgage default. But why did the value of their home decrease at the same time?
By Ms. Dee on 04/11/2008 10:38 am
MARK KLEIN, M.D.
Ms. Dee—The property market collapsed because subprime borrowers counted on being able to refinance on higher home prices. Housing prices soared fueled by subprime mortgages for more than a decade to way beyond any rational relationship with income. Like all financial bubbles, a burst was inevitable. But it’s not like our leadership didn’t know. I met for almost two hours in 2005 with the staff chiefs and their assistants at the Senate Banking Committee. They dismissed my concerns irresponsible credit issuance practices like subprime loans would lead to bust. (I got that meeting in lieu of being allowed to testify in opposition to Bernanke’s appointment of fed chief. The powers that be wanted an annointing not a confirmation hearing.) Think you’d find this live t.v. interview I did pertinent. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oQdn6NvhIU
By MARK KLEIN, M.D. on 04/11/2008 11:09 am
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Mark Klien- re your “The property market collapsed because subprime borrowers counted on being able to refinance on higher home prices.” This is totally backwards. The market collapsed because it was gamed by speculators selling derivatives (worthless made-up ‘bets’ that Warren Buffett called “sewage” because 90%+ of investors lose) based on shaky subprime mortages bundled in billions of dollars worth of pools creating a house of cards. A number of factors converged for it to fold and hasten the sucking of credit with it: then business owners can’t buy inventory or equipment or pay employees, and homeowners have no where to go when their adjustable mortgage rate soars. A house of cards built upon bet, upon bet, upon bet, infinitum. Like the gaming of the Savings in Loans under Bush 1 only super-sized. The taxpayer gets stuck and the money powers, like Neil Bush at Silverado, get tossed a government bailout. Explanation of subprime derivatives here. (derivatives are completely unregulated and have grown since 2000 from $9 trillion to $700 trillion globally when the US GNP is about $14 trillion and the world’s about $100 trillion) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YNyn1XGyWg RE: “But it’s not like our leadership didn’t know. I met for almost two hours in 2005 with the staff chiefs and their assistants at the Senate Banking Committee.” To put it politely, that is incredibly naive to think an individual is going to change something in a two hour meeting when enormous activist organizations, or Warren Buffett with his word, or Princetown economist Paul Krugman with his NYT column, or world Noble Prize winning economist together haven’t made a dent. Most people don’t realize that the Federal Reserve is a collection of private banks and now run by the former head of Goldman Sachs. A centralized bank run by the money interests is what our Founding Fathers warned about. Those of us who were actually working for Wall Street firms in the 1980s, and knew the critical importance of The Glass Stegall Banking Act watched it be blown away in 1999 by the Senate Banking Committee lobbied by the big banking interests that then were able to create all the frauds like World Com and Enron and the explosion of derivatives. Citigroup, JP Morgan and others eventually paid billions in fines, which was nothing compared to the millions of innocent people wiped out…and it was only a start. The subprime crisis is no more the fault or caused by homeowners than investors in Enron created those crimes. Predatory subprime lending is nothing new, what’s new that has led to this crisis and the highest number of foreclosures in US history is getting rid of Glass Stegall which allowed them their huge pools to be coupled to worthless, unregulated derivatives. And sir, I’d love to know when you received your stock broker’s license….I was licensed on all exhanges including the NYSE, OTC, Pacific Stock Exchange etc in 1984. Because you realize without a license you can’t be saying “I recommend” and no responsible person woul do that without providing much information and caveats and in the proper financial context. “I think” “perhaps consider” “I’m interested in” “maybe check with your financial advisor about…” etc. convey your interest in something without stepping over legal boundaries of recommendation. And what socially irresponsible individual invests in coal?
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/11/2008 1:12 pm
Mugsy Peabody
Well, first of all, Mark, diamonds were never a girl’s best friend. Second, women over 45 are not girls. Third, we’ve had a lifetime of men telling us what to value and what to think, and this is a website for women over 45 on the web. It is not a place to peddle your papers.
By Mugsy Peabody on 04/11/2008 5:47 pm
Liz Peek
Dear Ms. Dee - It is a cascading effect. Let’s face it - there were a huge number of mortgages and sales made to people who hoped to flip the property within a few months for a gain. In some markets, building was overdone - especially Florida and California - so supply began to outstrip demand just when the credit situation began to falter. So- people were renigging on their loans, or trying to dump houses to get out quickly, and the rest is history. Of course, once you see values going down in your neighborhood, you try to jump ahead of the slide and price your house lower, while the buyers know they just need to wait. It will take time to get thorugh the inventory of unsold homes, but we will. There is an underlying demand for housing in this country - eventually that will pick up the slack.
By Liz Peek on 04/12/2008 7:50 am
Gianna Bracco
Hi Liz — Thanks for your simplified explanation of the housing situation. Of course it’s much more complicated, but let me be the first to admit that I don’t have a clue what Ms. Suzanne is talking about. I think I would need to be sitting in a classroom to get through most of her postings. I’ll stick to “Economics for Dummies!”
By Gianna Bracco on 04/12/2008 3:00 pm
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Gianna—oops and thanks for the laugh….but actually that’s the game these guys play…make it so complex that no one can figure it out….and yes weren’t all those ‘dummies’ books a great conception.
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/12/2008 3:41 pm
Tinka Parker
Liz, do you think the Bear Stearns debacle is an anomaly, due to that institution’s hubris? Are there other vulnerable financials?
By Tinka Parker on 04/11/2008 11:47 am
Liz Peek
Hi Tinka! The Bear Stearns near-collapse was not really just about hubris. They were highly leveraged, it is true, but so are a lot of financial institutions. What brought BS down was that their countrerparties began to be nervous that BS was not good for the moneis extended to them in the normal course of business and so large hedge funds began to withdraw their funds and accounts. I do believe that short sellers played a role here; rumors were flying about BS for days - rumors that were probably unfounded - about their cash shortage. Anyone who was short the stock made a fortune. A similar series of events began to impact Lehman in the past couple of weeks - thank heavens they were able to raise some money so the run on Lehman quieted down. These are pretty scary times, for sure. Also, there’s a view that the Street held a grudge against BS ever since the Long Term Capital management disaster in 1987; all the Street firms participated in measures to make sure the LTCM meltdown didn’t extend to Main Street - except BS. No love lost here.
By Liz Peek on 04/12/2008 7:58 am
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Tinka, Bear Stears is not an anomaly…it’s about reckless policies, $700 trillion in global derivatives, and getting rid of the 1932 Glass Stegall Banking Act. Here’s the world’s best economic minds—the folks who are creating global monetary policy—including the head of the IMF discussing the financial crisis at the 2008 Davos Economic Forum. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQe3nxdrOfo Here’s a simple, clear, short explanation of the US Budget and why we are in trouble: http://www.truemajorityaction.org/oreos/ And here’s a 7-min excellent Bloomberg interview with Robert Prechter who predicted the 1987 mini-crash. His book, “Conquer the Crash” is terrific and very readable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjS60TaD_J8 Think well managed foreign (Asian/euro) currency fund like a Vanguard.
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/11/2008 12:17 pm
Deni G
Dear Ms. de Cornelia. You are waaay too fabulous!
By Deni G on 04/11/2008 12:26 pm