Q & A | 06/25/2008 1:00 am

The Coming Boomer Retirement Crisis

By The Staff at wowOwow

Editor’s Note: In this second installment of his wOw interview, Good Guys and Bad Guys, is a collection of his writings, explains why Americans are bad investors, China is scary (but not in the ways you might think it is) and greed is only half good.

wOw: What do you see as the future of retirement?

Nocera: I’m pretty pessimistic about retirement. My essential view is that most people are not good investors, because it requires a kind of emotional, hardwiring — zigging when the crowd is zagging — that most of us lack. And yet, our investing ability is the key to a financially secure retirement, because the society has largely shifted to 401k plans, where we have to choose how we want to invest our retirement fund. My guess is that many, many baby boomers are going to retire without the money they need, and will wind up having to go back to work, or sell beloved assets (the family homestead, for instance), to make ends meet. I think we are headed one of these days for a baby-boomer retirement crisis.

The emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China's future.

Click here to read Who’s the Top Female CEO in America?

wOw: Medicare is in more financial difficulty than social security. Who is addressing this?

Nocera: Nobody! Like social security, it is a sacred cow that politicians only address when they absolutely have to, and right now they don’t. What’s more, the political impulse to give people more goodies only makes the problem worse. What is the single thing the Bush administration pushed for regarding Medicare? The prescription benefit bill that lowered the cost of medicine for the elderly. That was a great thing for the elderly, but it is enormously expensive for the country and only exacerbates Medicare’s problems.

wOw: Tell us about your recent trip to China.

Nocera: I spent a week in Shanghai and a week in Beijing in early April — and I was completely bowled over. No matter how much you read about the economic boom taking place there, it is still eye-opening. Shanghai has more entrepreneurial energy than any place I’ve ever visited. Beijing is full of Internet companies and major corporations. The domestic economy is growing so fast that it won’t be long before China is no longer so dependent on the export economy. It is a country of very smart business people, both men and women. (Indeed, of the three billionaires I met in China, one was a woman who builds high-rises in Beijing.) China is full of problems, and you see them as well. There is plenty of poverty, pollution, petty corruption, lack of free speech and other democratic freedoms — and even the emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China’s future.

wOw: Should we fear China as a competitor?

Nocera: We most certainly should fear China as a competitor. The problem is not so much the well-known labor issues — the country’s ability to make things at low cost. Even though that has cost jobs in the United States, the low prices have been a net plus to our society — and in any case, our society has to do a better job of preparing its citizens for jobs that don’t depend on low salaries to create a competitive advantage. We can’t win that battle and we shouldn’t try.

The problem is that China is competing with us for resources. Its companies tend to copy successful American products, and then undercut on price. As it becomes an ever more dominant economy, there is a possibility that the dollar will no longer be the world’s most important currency, which would have devastating consequences for us. And in time, when Chinese companies become a little more mature, and become first-rate marketers — which they are not now — one could easily see them competing with high-end goods instead of only those that rely on low-cost labor.

56 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Frannie Em

Fabulous conversation. Thank you for this, can’t wait to get the book. In another article it was discussed that the ‘have nots’ in China were starting to get restless, and many former farmers are migrating to the cities for better jobs. If the have nots start to protest more, as many people are protesting pollution, it would seem that China is heading for a lot more social problems. They have been on the fast track and moving so quickly that a collision is going to happen. They are on a natural resources hunt all over the world. Doesn’t it appear that they have problems that can cause slowdowns?

By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 1:30 am
James Gemmell

Biotechnology and life sciences will be huge this century. Innovation, and a commitment to biosciences and medical research are a few ways that America can compete. There should be some amazing medical discoveries in the years to come, such as progress in exploring how people can self-heal through the power of the mind, genetic engineering, and so forth . As with many of the other societal ‘crises’, it’s a race against the clock, and hospitals that do medical research need as much support as they can get, whether through government contributions or from public donations.

By James Gemmell on 06/25/2008 1:41 am
Jeanette Foresta

Insightful interview. Thanks for the comments By James Gemmell on a possible solution for the future of our country. I will pass it along to my grandchildren.

The life sciences I have been experimenting with for years. I learned through reading, and experiments I did with the power of thinking it, so therefore it is, or becomes. I just forget to keep doing it, and get caught up in life.

By Jeanette Foresta on 06/25/2008 10:05 am
James Gemmell

You’re welcome.

By James Gemmell on 06/25/2008 5:19 pm
phyllis Doyle Pepe

If you ask me why didn’t I understand that any alternative to cutthroat capitalism and a society based on inequality and competitiveness not only wasn’t going to work but was going to turn into some horror, either of despotism or of economic catastrophe, all I can say is that lots of people didn’t understand this.”
Susan Sontag

By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 06/25/2008 10:11 am
phyllis Doyle Pepe

Shanghai: Its name literally means, “on the sea.” Hardly more than 150 years ago it was a fishing village on a mud flat. Then the British won the battle to share the joys of opium with the Chinese. The Treaty of Nanking in 1842 opened the fishing village to foreign trade, and the mud flat of the Huanpu River became a port, drawing in opium and dispersing it to the mainland, gathering up products of the interior and sending them out on ships—tea, silk, porcelain and even workers kidnapped for the railroads and mines in the American West(hence the word “shanghaied). This Paris of the East—or Sodom and Gomorrah—abruptly devolved into a drab backwater after Mao’s peasant army took over in 1949. About 15 years ago, China’s leaders decided to make the city the showcase of the new economic policy, and Shanghai, money capital of China, burst into being.

By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 06/25/2008 10:12 am
Frannie Em

Phyllis

Great synopsis. There is one key that should be mentioned as well. It was Taiwanese businesses that opened factories in China because they could get a disciplined and inexpensive work force. With the permission of the Chinese government, they were the beginning of the boom. The invested quite a bit there, and once other nations saw that it was safe, they jumped in for the inexpensive work force.

I think in many ways China is shooting themselves in the foot by overreaching and overlooking building standards, resulting in the problems we saw happen when the earthquake hit. The pace at which they have grown has caused tremendous pollution. They say the rivers run black. The general population is up in arms over the situation, and they think it is too prideful of the government to do this.

By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 1:28 pm
Diana T

Zigging when the crowd is zagging” is the most important thing to learn in investing, and the scariest.
Thank you for a most insightful conversation. Perhaps I will buy the book for my 21 yr. old grandson.

By Diana T on 06/25/2008 10:13 am
Dr. Mark Klein

How can we expect the majority of Americans to be financially secure in retirement when the cultural ethic is shopping until dropping? Rather we should again be a savings and investment society.

For Americans I don’t think there’s a more economically braindead policy than our support of globalization. Really pretty pathetic the common response to the loss of decent paying industrial jobs to moving production overseas is to open more casinos!

My elementary school in the mid to late 1940s had a savings program integrated into the arithmatic program. Once a week we deposited at least a dime in class in individual accounts set up by a local bank. The program’s motto was “Save your dimes and watch your dollars grow”.

By Dr. Mark Klein on 06/25/2008 10:41 am
kermie b

Casinos. Yep. That’s the problem.

By kermie b on 06/25/2008 2:54 pm
beverly linens

ki b,

This is the first time Dr. Mark has been right. Amazing! Don’t make fun of him this time.

By beverly linens on 06/25/2008 6:07 pm
Peggy Sue

Wow, of course you are going to push me off the fence I have been sitting on for some time. I will purchase this book to learn more about this deeply personal subject to me. Being a baby boomer, I realize these issues are staring me in the face and I am not sure which way to turn.

As an artist, I have always felt the person to invest into was myself. Creating is as important to me as breathing. Many questions enter my mind now with economic issues rising so quickly in this country. I would hate to think that this world could live without art. But when there are so many major issues to solve on this planet, what is the point? And if business has to be irresponsible to succeed, then I want no part.

Thanks for showing this book.

By Peggy Sue on 06/25/2008 11:01 am
Lily Of The Valley

I am enjoying these articles more than I thought I would. Thank you wowOwow.

Thank you Phyllis for the brief history of Shanghai. It rang a few bells for me and plopped things in my lap that I hadn’t thought of in years.

My brother-in-law was born in Shanghai in the 30’s to a Russian mother and British father, who was in the merchant marine. I never thought to ask why they were there. Hmmm.

By Lily Of The Valley on 06/25/2008 11:22 am
K O

The reality of savings measurement in the US is that it is very flawed, and significantly underreported. It is inconsistent with the dramatic title of “The Coming Boomer Retirement Crisis,“ but nevertheless is a fact, not a guess.
The author’s assessment of the fact that Medicare payments are a problem is correct, but there is time to correct the flaws in the system before it goes bankrupt, and the likelihood is high that it will be a part of the overall health care system overhaul, high on both candidate’s list of priorities.
Chinese competition is real, but should not be feared. Competition for resources is an opportunity for entrepreneurial focus to alternative energy, already in force in the Silicon Valley and likely to grow as prospects for significant wealth in this area are realized. As alternative energy sources are adopted, competition for “old” energy will dissipate, and prices will equalize.
Nuclear energy is clean and relatively safe, until the consideration for storage of nuclear waste is considered. http://www.history.rochester.edu/class/EZRA/ Until these problems are solved, it is an unacceptable alternative to any energy source.
Baby boomers, particularly women who live longer and earn less than men, do need to learn the precepts of long term investing. That much is correct, and, while it is now not a crisis, it should certainly be a high priority. Given that, caring about wealth is a positive thing that I would encourage all women over 40 to do for themselves.

By K O on 06/25/2008 11:29 am
Diana T

Kitty,
I’ve missed seeing you in print for a few days; glad to see you back. With your qualifications, you always have very informative imput to these conversations. Thank you!

By Diana T on 06/25/2008 12:50 pm
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