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Q & A | 06/25/2008 12:00 am

The Coming Boomer Retirement Crisis

By The Staff at wowOwow

Editor’s Note: In this second installment of his wOw interview, Good Guys and Bad Guys, is a collection of his writings, explains why Americans are bad investors, China is scary (but not in the ways you might think it is) and greed is only half good.

wOw: What do you see as the future of retirement?

Nocera: I’m pretty pessimistic about retirement. My essential view is that most people are not good investors, because it requires a kind of emotional, hardwiring — zigging when the crowd is zagging — that most of us lack. And yet, our investing ability is the key to a financially secure retirement, because the society has largely shifted to 401k plans, where we have to choose how we want to invest our retirement fund. My guess is that many, many baby boomers are going to retire without the money they need, and will wind up having to go back to work, or sell beloved assets (the family homestead, for instance), to make ends meet. I think we are headed one of these days for a baby-boomer retirement crisis.

The emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China's future.

Click here to read Who’s the Top Female CEO in America?

wOw: Medicare is in more financial difficulty than social security. Who is addressing this?

Nocera: Nobody! Like social security, it is a sacred cow that politicians only address when they absolutely have to, and right now they don’t. What’s more, the political impulse to give people more goodies only makes the problem worse. What is the single thing the Bush administration pushed for regarding Medicare? The prescription benefit bill that lowered the cost of medicine for the elderly. That was a great thing for the elderly, but it is enormously expensive for the country and only exacerbates Medicare’s problems.

wOw: Tell us about your recent trip to China.

Nocera: I spent a week in Shanghai and a week in Beijing in early April — and I was completely bowled over. No matter how much you read about the economic boom taking place there, it is still eye-opening. Shanghai has more entrepreneurial energy than any place I’ve ever visited. Beijing is full of Internet companies and major corporations. The domestic economy is growing so fast that it won’t be long before China is no longer so dependent on the export economy. It is a country of very smart business people, both men and women. (Indeed, of the three billionaires I met in China, one was a woman who builds high-rises in Beijing.) China is full of problems, and you see them as well. There is plenty of poverty, pollution, petty corruption, lack of free speech and other democratic freedoms — and even the emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China’s future.

wOw: Should we fear China as a competitor?

Nocera: We most certainly should fear China as a competitor. The problem is not so much the well-known labor issues — the country’s ability to make things at low cost. Even though that has cost jobs in the United States, the low prices have been a net plus to our society — and in any case, our society has to do a better job of preparing its citizens for jobs that don’t depend on low salaries to create a competitive advantage. We can’t win that battle and we shouldn’t try.

The problem is that China is competing with us for resources. Its companies tend to copy successful American products, and then undercut on price. As it becomes an ever more dominant economy, there is a possibility that the dollar will no longer be the world’s most important currency, which would have devastating consequences for us. And in time, when Chinese companies become a little more mature, and become first-rate marketers — which they are not now — one could easily see them competing with high-end goods instead of only those that rely on low-cost labor.

56 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Frannie Em
Kitty, I am sorry for your loss. Be well.
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 12:38 pm
phyllis Doyle Pepe
And we missed you, Kitty. Sympathies to you and family.
By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 06/25/2008 1:07 pm
Maurine H
Hi Kitty - It’s good to see you back on wOw, but I’m so sorry for your family’s loss.
By Maurine H on 06/25/2008 3:58 pm
Frannie Em
Kitty, I have always encouraged our kids to save. At our local school some of the banks have set up savings accounts for the kids and every week they make deposits. That is elementary school. I consistently save, not able to always put the same amount in, but pretty much on a once a week basis. Right now our retirement accounts are taking a beating, but it seems everyones are. THat is scary. But thanks for the info. There is competition for resources, but the US is pretty resource rich. We are very fortunate. Isn’t that why we bought Alaska from the Russians? Everyone thought we were crazy. With reuse and recycling, we should be okay and not have to exploit all of our natural resources. I don’t think we want to either. I should think that the advances and science and technology can solve many of our problems. That is the key.
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 12:38 pm
K O
Hi Frannie, Thanks for your kind words. Your local school savings program sounds outstanding. It sounds like you have excellent savings habits as well. Yes, this is a nasty correction for our retirement accounts. That’s the cost of higher long term reward - higher short term risk. And we’re seeing that now. Remember that in the long run, the US is still the world’s strongest economy, and this, too, shall pass.
By K O on 06/25/2008 12:48 pm
Frannie Em
Kitty, I took a seminar on US Chinese Relations a couple of months ago, and the instructor who lived in US and China said that our per capita income was still so far ahead of the average Chinese citizen. They have grown, but we are still much better. It seems to me that with globalization that we are being forced to grow and change in directions that currently strain us, but in the long run will benefit us. We, and everyone have a long way to go. “US is still the world’s strongest economy and this, too, shall pass.” How do we keep our competitive edge? It seems that all the wealth at the top isn’t necessarily being reinvested back into our economy, or is it? Everyday there seems to be so much contrary information to sift through and understand. Who has the time or inclination?
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 1:30 pm
Maurine H
Kitty, I appreciate your saying “Chinese competition is real, but should not be feared.” I don’t think the U.S. should ever fear competition from any source. We don’t own the game, and the more competition, the more innovation and development of products and services will appear. I have a friend in advertising who lives in Taiwan and has an office in China. One of his largest clients is Wal-Mart. (Never mind my own bias against Wal-Mart and refusal to shop at their stores). I find it interesting that Wal-Mart is out-sourcing work to an American living in Asia.
By Maurine H on 06/25/2008 4:09 pm
Mark Rowe
This day with the Republican kaos and the American government corruption, one has no money unless you have it in your hand! We have no way of making steal, and we are selling what we have to China. Our technoligy has been given to as well as stolen to China. We were not getting along with communist China untill they forced our spy plane down and kidnapped our military people and the plane with its tech! Shortly after that we were suddenly giving them everything. Go figure.
By Mark Rowe on 06/25/2008 11:10 am
Frannie Em
Mark I am not clear on what spy plane event you are talking about. Can you give us more details.
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 12:40 pm
kermie b
Click on his name to read his past posts and you will understand. (I have been doing that a lot lately, because posters have been changing names, not him in particular.) I don’t always agree with him, but he is not a bad person. He has a little trouble expressing himself.
By kermie b on 06/25/2008 1:21 pm
Frank Peterson
Wonder woman: some would say he has trouble every time he open his yawp—but he that’s what made this country great :-)
By Frank Peterson on 06/25/2008 1:25 pm
Frank Peterson
ooooops wrong Mark—Sorry i apologise.
By Frank Peterson on 06/25/2008 1:27 pm
Frannie Em
ki b I know, it is really helpful. Sometimes on the weekends when there is not much going on I will read someone’s post site, just to get to know them better. The threads are fun, but they are quick and mixed in with several comments. Then when I read their response to something I understand them more and what they are trying to communicate. Sometimes I check an individual’s posts who are on a lot to see if I can find a thread to join.
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 1:35 pm
Maurine H
Great idea, Frannie. I’m going to try it. BTW, I always enjoy your posts.
By Maurine H on 06/26/2008 10:44 pm
Diana T
Please, please, people, read Tom Friedman’s book The World is Flat. Anyone who believes that we can rid ourselves of globalization is very, very naive and narrow minded, and very ignorant of economic history. Especially when we think that we are communicating with each other all over the world right this minute. Ford has been in Europe and the UK for decades. Daimler has been here for decades. We have had trading partners ever since we set up housekeeping on the Silk Road and before. We are, we must adjust our mindset to a new and exciting world ahead of us just as we always have and leave a legacy we can be proud of to the future generations. We MUST educate ourselves so that we can be team players and participate in the exciting things to come. Mankind started trading with each other back when they invented settlements, and it evolved from that. Trade and commerce is a fascinating subject and fun to read. I also recommend the definitive history written by Fernand Braudel…a trilogy that is huge and long called Civilization & Capitalism, 15th-18th Century. You will learn that there is nothing new under the sun.
By Diana T on 06/25/2008 12:03 pm