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Q & A | 06/25/2008 12:00 am

The Coming Boomer Retirement Crisis

By The Staff at wowOwow

Editor’s Note: In this second installment of his wOw interview, Good Guys and Bad Guys, is a collection of his writings, explains why Americans are bad investors, China is scary (but not in the ways you might think it is) and greed is only half good.

wOw: What do you see as the future of retirement?

Nocera: I’m pretty pessimistic about retirement. My essential view is that most people are not good investors, because it requires a kind of emotional, hardwiring — zigging when the crowd is zagging — that most of us lack. And yet, our investing ability is the key to a financially secure retirement, because the society has largely shifted to 401k plans, where we have to choose how we want to invest our retirement fund. My guess is that many, many baby boomers are going to retire without the money they need, and will wind up having to go back to work, or sell beloved assets (the family homestead, for instance), to make ends meet. I think we are headed one of these days for a baby-boomer retirement crisis.

The emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China's future.

Click here to read Who’s the Top Female CEO in America?

wOw: Medicare is in more financial difficulty than social security. Who is addressing this?

Nocera: Nobody! Like social security, it is a sacred cow that politicians only address when they absolutely have to, and right now they don’t. What’s more, the political impulse to give people more goodies only makes the problem worse. What is the single thing the Bush administration pushed for regarding Medicare? The prescription benefit bill that lowered the cost of medicine for the elderly. That was a great thing for the elderly, but it is enormously expensive for the country and only exacerbates Medicare’s problems.

wOw: Tell us about your recent trip to China.

Nocera: I spent a week in Shanghai and a week in Beijing in early April — and I was completely bowled over. No matter how much you read about the economic boom taking place there, it is still eye-opening. Shanghai has more entrepreneurial energy than any place I’ve ever visited. Beijing is full of Internet companies and major corporations. The domestic economy is growing so fast that it won’t be long before China is no longer so dependent on the export economy. It is a country of very smart business people, both men and women. (Indeed, of the three billionaires I met in China, one was a woman who builds high-rises in Beijing.) China is full of problems, and you see them as well. There is plenty of poverty, pollution, petty corruption, lack of free speech and other democratic freedoms — and even the emphasis on making money can seem soulless in some ways. But the potential is so huge, it is hard not to be optimistic about China’s future.

wOw: Should we fear China as a competitor?

Nocera: We most certainly should fear China as a competitor. The problem is not so much the well-known labor issues — the country’s ability to make things at low cost. Even though that has cost jobs in the United States, the low prices have been a net plus to our society — and in any case, our society has to do a better job of preparing its citizens for jobs that don’t depend on low salaries to create a competitive advantage. We can’t win that battle and we shouldn’t try.

The problem is that China is competing with us for resources. Its companies tend to copy successful American products, and then undercut on price. As it becomes an ever more dominant economy, there is a possibility that the dollar will no longer be the world’s most important currency, which would have devastating consequences for us. And in time, when Chinese companies become a little more mature, and become first-rate marketers — which they are not now — one could easily see them competing with high-end goods instead of only those that rely on low-cost labor.

56 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

kermie b
My 401k has taken a beating, and took one in the late 90s, and, and, and… I have been counseled to move funds around in an informed manner and hang in there, which I do. I work as hard as I can fit in a day, and save for the day it can actually translate to (golly!) parttime work. I don’t ever see not working as an option. I have been working fulltime since I was 13, and I am just tired. There have never been family inheritances, no trust funds, I cannot afford to buy a home. And yet, I know I am better off than other people. These discussions, and looking at the chasm between myself and the types of women who started this website just wear me down.
By kermie b on 06/25/2008 1:52 pm
Frannie Em
Ki b I understand. It is a wacky time.
By Frannie Em on 06/25/2008 1:57 pm
Frank Peterson
This man is someone I believe who should be read by every investor in this country: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091….
By Frank Peterson on 06/25/2008 5:18 pm
beverly linens
I do have and idea that might work for some. Those of us who come up on retirement without a lot of assets have to be creative. This works when you have a sizable equity in your home. In 1986 they passed a law that people over 55, I think, can take the equity out of their home without paying capital gains on $250.000 of it, more for couples. Then you can invest how you want. I chose to invest in a tri plex, I knew when I retired I wouldn’t be able to afford the property taxes on my Victorian. A duplex won’t work unless you can pay cash for it. It supplies me with a place to live and I have my renters paying my property taxes etc. All I have to pay out of my social security is food and personal needs. I work from time to time for fun money. Now I just have to worry that my tenants keep their jobs. It also keeps me from being one of those people whose income never goes up. The rents do keep up with inflation.
By beverly linens on 06/25/2008 5:33 pm
K O
Hi Beverly, The $250 thousand capital gain exclusion ($500k for married couples) can be taken only if the person (or couple) has lived in the home, and maintained as a primary residence, for at least two of the five years previous to the sale. Your reinvestment in income property should be a good one for you. Real estate and capital markets are the assets that, over time, grow in excess of inflation. Good for you.
By K O on 06/25/2008 6:35 pm
Thelma Leopold
Is this article talking about baby boomers/retirement or how to be competitive and make money in the future?
By Thelma Leopold on 06/25/2008 9:50 pm
beverly linens
Thelma for some of us retirement isn’t about sitting and waiting to die or having enough money to wander the world. We have to figure out how to optimize what we have going into to years when working full time isn’t an option. Or as my elderly father-in- law used to say working smarter not harder. Bev.
By beverly linens on 06/25/2008 10:11 pm
Get Sporty
Entrepreneurial Green’s the thing—-in more ways than one.
By Get Sporty on 06/26/2008 7:55 am
No Way-No How -No McCain
Dear Mr. Nocera, Love the book cover. On the west coast venture capital is flowing to green technologies, esp nanotechnologies and there is a hightened sense of social entrepreneurialism, and environmental responsibility—particularly since 90% of America’s wine is produced in California, it’s the #1 finished agricultural crop and wine grapes are so vulnerable to climate change. [ie wine production contributes $51.8B overall to the state economy and $125.3B to the national economy. Compared to Americans spending $110 billion a year on meat-based fast food—or more than on all books, DVDs, CDs, movies, magazines and newspapers combined.] It’s expected that this summer, for the first time in history, all the North Pole ice will melt….underscoring the gravity of the Climate Crisis. The #1 thing we can do is to capture coal plant emissions. If you look at a satellite image of Earth the greatest concentration of carbon emissions comes from the US eastern seaboard. I hope that while promoting your book that sustainability would be highlighted and not what further imperils the environment and our health; like further oil drilling or building of nukes. We have the technology to harness the sun that gives out more energy every second than ever used in all of human history. And when prior to the advent of nuclear development, fallout from Hiroshima, Nagosaki, from nuclear testing, and leakage from the nuclear plants, and the nuclear waste buried in land and at sea, there was no isotope strontium-90 outside of labrotories. Now it in inside every person and animal on earth. In addition, the billions of tons of Agent Orange, defoliants, depleted uranium, pesticides, herbicides, industiral pollution, automobile exhaust that are dumped into the environment, and the toxic specters that ghost from our landfills—-all haunt the entire eco-system, including our bodies. We are the environment. Cancer is epidemic….3,000 die in the US everyday from environmentally related cancers alone. Solar arrays in deserts could power the US generating enough clean energy to meet the country’s needs many times over, according to a new report from Environment Florida. A 100-mile-by-100-mile solar thermal installation in the American Southwest could meet the entire country’s energy needs. That area is slightly larger than US land strip-mined for coal. China is making solar cell billionaires practically overnight. What is needed is something akin to a Marshall Plan that could make economies sustainable. Whatever nation is the first to create something innovative along the lines of Ford Motor assembly-lines with nanotechnology combustible engines, etc….is going to all but end US auto-making, and the organics movement will move people further away from petroleum based products. ie Whole Foods and organics are the growth grocery segment…and those shoppers know everything that contains petroleum, and also drive import hybrids. San Francisco is banning plastic bags and plastic bottles. I for one am all for making money…because as you said it can have enormous social benefits. But for me, I don’t not buy, watch, consume, invest in, or participate in anything that is not environmentally aware, and see many areas where new enterprises could help fix our pressing problems; ie -30% of the landfills are filled with construction debris—we need more reuse of those materials—one woman in Malibu is building a new home out of an old 747. -We have a nation of people seriously hurting for basics, combined with a nation that has a growth industry in storing it’s unneeded junk. Some social enterprise folks need to put together a US wide free-cycle site a la Craigslist that would include construction materials, and government surplus give-away links (people have built entire homes from materials free from government recyle sites). -Homeless (mostly men) collect bottles and cans from city trashbins (that would otherwise be hauled to landfills) and haul this around in big plastic trash bags…and then onto public transport, slow arduous process. I asked one man how much he makes a day. He said $12 if he works nonstop. Seems there could be a way to encourage this ‘casual labor,’ which helps the environment too, and saves cities from capital outlay for new recycle bins alongside sidewalk trash bins, plus the extra labor to pick them up. -I think businesses instead of creating more new junk we don’t need, could be in the business of remaking what we already have and don’t use, including home businesses. One woman collects old clothes and material and weaves these into rag rugs…she has a waiting list of clients. Women are making hot selling purses out of old candy wrappers. Here for example is a blog how-to…http://candywrapperpurse.blogspot.com/ -Because of fuel costs people are getting on bikes, but many can’t afford new bikes, thus Recycle a Bike operations are springing up. Something that can help people and also help a handy individual who could work from their garage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1pKe7W3dL4 Look forward to reading your book! And hope everyone remembers that it is the small women owned businesses that employ more than the Fortune 500 combined.
By No Way-No How -No McCain on 06/28/2008 4:06 am
I Love Money And Money Loves Me
Here’s a ‘recycler’ for you: Woman makes home from 747: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF5n68EDQvU
By I Love Money And Money Loves Me on 06/28/2008 1:31 pm