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Wall Street Weekly | 11/21/2008 10:10 am

Liz Peek: Is a Decade of Depression Upon Us?

By Liz Peek
Dorothea Lange/Library of Congress

The author of the story which I am now pinching, Andy Kessler, also cites mutual-fund and hedge-fund redemptions as another source of wanton dumping. I have written about this in Shecomonics, the investing series I am publishing on this site. Redemptions in October amounted to tens of billions of dollars, and it has clearly continued into this month.

The impact of such selling by hedge funds is magnified by the leverage or borrowings used by those investors. If a college endowment, for instance, wants to redeem one million dollars, the fund may have to jettison three or four times that amount to maintain a certain ratio between holdings and borrowings. In the past week some SEC hedge-fund filings have become public. They show that, for instance, Tudor Management’s positions in U.S. shares dropped from $5.7 billion to $453 million – in one quarter! SAC Capital Advisors reported that its holdings of U.S. stocks dropped in half and Atticus Capital reduced its stock positions from $8.1 billion to $510 million. Pretty dramatic, and very, very harmful.

There are also margin calls in any period when share prices drop so calamitously, and we are seeing some of that as well. Kessler cites Sumner Redstone’s forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS to repay the debt he had borrowed to buy them.

So, there are a lot of reasons for the carnage. Kessler concludes that these pressures will linger until February. He may be right, though honestly I cannot imagine that the market can go much lower (but I would have made that case last week, too).

I do think we are suffering a complete absence of leadership — in the White House and in Congress — that won’t end until Obama takes office in January. Let us all hope and pray that he is ready to take on this mess, that he surrounds himself with smart and practical people, and that the nation is cheered by the transition. I’m ready for good news … aren’t you?

57 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Ann Marie Rose
personally, I thikn the first place we should start is by not paying people millions of dollard in salaries. Actors, sports figures, CEOs…etc. There should be a salary cap on how much people can make. The rest of the profit should be dispersed to the rest of us and to the government. Stop bailing out auto makers and financial institutions who pay their people WAY too much money. Give to the teachers and health care workers..people whose job is way more important than some stupid football player. Get people jobs, good health care and good wages. Stop trying to keep poor people poor, and rich people rich. Equal opportunity. Not opportunity only for the rich.
By Ann Marie Rose on 11/21/2008 9:27 am
Cynthia Ceilan
>> “There should be a salary cap on how much people can make. The rest of the profit should be dispersed to the rest of us and to the government.” Sorry, Ann Marie, I know you mean well, but this was the basis of communism… and we all know how that turned out.
By Cynthia Ceilan on 11/21/2008 11:33 am
gulliver fourmyle
the problem is not ‘communism’ or ‘capitalism’—-either may wreak havoc—-take a hard look at Cuba, it became Owned by the American Mafia—-95% of the population were starving—-now? no one starves, Cuba has the highest literacy rate in the Western Hemisphere, the lowest infant mortality rate—-so, is communism essentially bad? No. people are—-that is the problem—-any economic system is only as good as its people—-so, Mao was a mess, Deng cleaned it up—- who made your computer?
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/23/2008 8:21 pm
gulliver fourmyle
your ‘beef’ is what Roger Corman’s cult classic, ‘Death Race 2000’ focuses on—-‘black-comedy’ that ends with—-stopping the ‘rule-of-the-privlileged-elite’—-some nudity, Stallone’s greatest role, as others—-some ‘gore’—-but funny-as-hell—-and so appropriate to ‘Now’, it’s not to be missed—-enjoy—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/21/2008 6:56 pm
gulliver fourmyle
The greatest good for the greatest number’. yes—-the greed of just the auto-industries has mass-extinction breathing down our back—-how does such happen? find my physics posts, if still around—-+entropy (tendency-to-disorder, known as ‘S’) is The property of mass, as a planet—-math-wise? simple S=md—-where m=mass, d=distance—- fortunately there is ‘-S’—-tendency to order, math-wise -S=m/d—-so what? you may never escape ‘S’ on a massive planet—-you must leave—- you have a huge military budget, for killing, turn that around for Life—-Lunar colonization—-a good start—-jump 6 times further? probably live 6X longer—-i’ll be dead, by age, but in 50 years you could have huge sub-surface, self-sustaining Lunar colonies—-no Green-House, Solar Flare, Near Super-Nova, Gamma-Ray Burster, asteroid impact threat could waste humanity—-we would be safe—-here? sitting ducks—- now, please—-i may ‘back-up’ what i say, with solid science—-no BS—-get this bunch to work—-i do not wish to ‘land’ on earth again—-given “Heaven’ may only be 250,000 miles away, and we’ve been there—-thanks—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/23/2008 7:04 pm
gulliver fourmyle
the trick is to follow ‘the-point’—-you learn this stuff on ‘death-row’—-the older? seems sadly more to learn—-the bright spot is modern physics and life-science—-and that ‘ever-saving’ phrase, ‘given enough time’—-is a thing, as Heaven is shown, as i do via. pro references, if such be possible, ‘given enough time’ it is mandatory—-it’s not faith—-it’s trust in Life—- should Life be trouble, the ‘cleaner’ is always watching—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/24/2008 12:01 am
gulliver fourmyle
while i pray this cruel world may be my personal delusion—-doubt it—-we’re all born on ‘death-row’—-but you may see, as the calender goes on, you get more ‘spooked’—-not going over your head, re-read—-there remains an important issue—-is ‘Life’ legal? given a ‘perfect-as-ya-get’ future? OK—-to just repeat this mess? it’s fired—-not by me alone—-by you, jane doe, and john X—-ok? i think all vote—-even the HIV ‘hit”, African Cival War, or Iraq, Israel——the harmed—-that is Life’s prob—-then the vote——
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/24/2008 12:45 am
gulliver fourmyle
about leaving—-Buzz Aldrin was actually asked, by an arrogant reporter—-‘with so much mess here, why fund a space program?’ his prompt reply? ‘It’s about leaving’.’ nothing’s over your head, it’s really quite simple—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/25/2008 11:58 pm
phyllis Doyle Pepe
And there’s pirating and looting on the high seas! Captain Hook is alive and well. Will it never end? There are people like Andrew Sorkin who seem to have some good ideas re: the auto industry debacle and the debates continue in Congress despite the log jams. Good news? I can’t wait.
By phyllis Doyle Pepe on 11/21/2008 9:52 am
gulliver fourmyle
pirates? as Woody Guthrie noted, ‘some will rob ya with a six-gun, some with a fountain pen.’ too bad ‘Captain Jack Sparrow’ is myth. given the old rule, ‘Never steal anything small’, i wonder why we don’t have school-courses in bank robbery, etc. whoops, forgot, we do—-called ‘prison’. or Harvard—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/24/2008 9:20 pm
Dorothy S
Liz, Do you have advice? Stayed in safe stocks ove the years. Split between Lehman Brothers bonds, Wachovia, Citigroup, GE, and a smattering of small numbers of others. Will Lehman be forever gone? No help there? We are scared. Poor health. Very scared.Not old enough yet for social security or medicare. No pension funds at all. We worked ourselves (to poor health )as entrepeneurs and so our money upon sale of small business was all put into investments. Have children in collegeThen we got wacked by colleges. Income from stocks abut 23,000 a year and our kids got some merit scholarships but very little. Our investments could not be seen as our only pension. We followed the American dream and are……….trying very hard to find a way to get our health care paid for. $15,000 a year for the two of us. We know retail and can find lots of empty stores now…………..but then who is to say we open a store, work 90 hours a week, and we too won’t fail in this economy? We think it is not a good time to be selling anything except soup and macaroni and cheese. Oh, but I have flour allergy, so that’s out too.So much for the bread line. Living on our hard won earnings but seeing it drop by over 50% in the past weeks and quickly disappearing has been alarming, depressing, frightening. Liz, I have been listening to Jim Cramer. Too late I am. I actually am hoping for him to be named as Treasury Secretary.
By Dorothy S on 11/21/2008 10:14 am
gulliver fourmyle
Wachovia? their Fla. base is right out my window—-2 week’s ago the entire 30 stories were totally lit-up ‘till 3:00AM—-usually it’s one dark place after 5:00 pm—-all hell must have been loosed—-don’t know what they were doing—-covering their butts? probably—-spooky—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/21/2008 6:44 pm
gulliver fourmyle
well, now ya know—-my kids (9)—-as i, some, who cared, earned full scholarships, or tough-shit—-ya do not owe them an education—-they Earn that, on their own—-and i have a Berkley Regent Scholar daughter #4—-24 Regents in Cal—-of millions of students they pick 24—- when bush invaded Iraq, you should have converted any stocks to platinum—-instantly—-you’d be sittin’ pretty—-the main rule is this—-when a major nation is obviously insane, the world dumps their stock for metal—-before it’s too late—- then, when the market ‘bottoms-out’, you cautiously convert your metal earnings back to stocks—-yup, be patient, rich again—-you may forgo my usual fee—-a ‘thanks’ will suffice—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/23/2008 7:37 pm
Chrome Toe
wouldn’t now be the time to start buying some stocks though if you have money you can afford to lose if you have to? stocks and real estate…?
By Chrome Toe on 11/21/2008 10:18 am
gulliver fourmyle
yes—-and ‘commercial’ real estate, not residential—-for those ‘liquid’, a golden chance—-a very old story—-
By gulliver fourmyle on 11/23/2008 7:45 pm