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Wall Street Weekly | 02/27/2009 8:45 am

Obama Budget a Can of … Pythons, by Liz Peek

By Liz Peek
© Shutterstock

Bears, Bulls, Chickens and Pigs: wOw’s Wall Street Weekly with Liz Peek (Week of 2/23) 

Editor’s Note: Liz Peek is a financial columnist and the author of wOw’s SHEconomics

This was a big week for President Obama. First, he warmed up the nation with a beautifully crafted speech to Congress, then he turned up the rhetorical flame – and scorched a number of industries – with his first budget. I have been reading the fiscal 2010 spending plan and trying to pin down why it makes me so uncomfortable. It isn’t the size, though by any standard $3.55 trillion seems like a monumental amount of money. It isn’t even the deficit of $1.7 trillion, which — he reminds us at every turn — he inherited. (Admittedly, like a good heir, he has surely helped it grow!)

What alarms me is that the president appears to have no confidence in private enterprise and, instead, enormous trust that the government can solve our problems. The proposed budget is Shakespearean in its ambitions – launching all manner of new and complicated long-term programs amid a severe recession. It is also vague. Like Treasury Secretary Geithner’s financial plan, the programs are described in generalities, leaving the details to Congress. Oh, dear.

In fairness, this country does need to tackle our aging infrastructure, and we should encourage alternative energy. It is true that the short-term focus of our government and of our corporations distracts from undertaking important initiatives. And we do have problems that need to be addressed, including improving our education system and reducing our dependence on imported oil.

But instead of encouraging corporations to undertake these challenges, President Obama wants to insert government into every facet of health care, energy production, manufacturing and education with complex and occasionally illogical programs. For instance, the president wants to establish fees for those generating pollutants, in a modified version of Europe’s cap-and-trade program (which has been a complete failure). The plan is expected to generate hundreds of billions of dollars – ultimately becoming the sixth largest source of federal revenues in 2019. In effect, this will be a huge new cost to our industries that are struggling to remain competitive on the world stage. Obama wants to create jobs; this is hardly the way to go about it. In any case, recognizing that such a program will drive up utility costs, (but realistically, all costs will rise as the burden will be shared by all industries), Obama’s team plans to compensate our low-income citizens with tax credits. Imagine figuring that one out.

Similarly, he wants to reduce the deductions on mortgage outlays that homeowners in the highest income tax bracket can take, in effect increasing the cost of buying a home. That seems like an exceptionally poor idea when we’re trying to stabilize the critical housing sector. Not until the overhang of homes disappears can prices hit bottom and mortgage-related securities — the stopped heart of the financial system — end their drastic descent. One of the few bright lights on the horizon for the industry is that homes are more affordable than they have been in decades because of lower mortgage rates and prices. Under Obama’s plan, that trend will reverse for a sizeable number of buyers.

Obama also wants the government to end the subsidies available to companies like Sallie Mae that facilitate low-cost student loans. Instead, he wants the federal government to take on that job. My guess is that, before long, we’ll be graduating people in their 30s, taking into account the years they will need to wade through the bureaucracy in search of funding. Never mind that meddling with the industry has already driven scores of companies out of business and severely constricted the availability of student loans.

He is also considering taxing company-provided health insurance, in an effort to make such coverage more affordable. Try to get your head around that one.

407 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Susan Easterday
Hi Starry Nite, Thanks for that—I was aware of it—just complicated to write about every time.  It would still have the similar effect, especially since their income taxes will be raised also. It will probably hurt the charities the most—the government will benefit and the taxpayer might give less.  The charities will lose.
By Susan Easterday on 03/02/2009 7:01 am
Z ****
Is it just possible — that perhaps if people who make less than $250,000 might just contribute MORE to charities if they have more money in their pocket?   But beyond that, I still believe that people who are benevolent contribute to charities because they see a need.   I’m more worried about charities suffering because people who make less than $250K a year are hurting financially.
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 9:11 am
Steve Douglass
And it will be even worse than now. People who, in the past, didn’t have to pay Social Security taxes on income over $94,700 will now be subject to the 12.4% tax. In addition to that, the Bush tax cuts, which Nobama should have made permanent, will increase the taxes on a family making $75K a year by $3074. For a family making $50K a year, the increase will be $1512. There just won’t be incentive to donate, let alone the money to donate. The government is now assuming the role of the distributor of charitable funds because they have mandated that taxpayers give money to the government for the government’s special interests and pet projects.
By Steve Douglass on 03/02/2009 6:45 pm
Z ****
And your source for these tax increase numbers?
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 7:09 pm
Z ****
Interesting — since the 2009 tax tables AREN’T OUT YET.
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 10:27 pm
Z ****

The below is by Peter Orsazg, Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/blog/09/02/27/TheBudgetandCharitableDonations/

Is our budget proposal uncharitable?

  Over the past 24 hours since we debuted the President’s FY 2010 Budget, some non-profits have argued that the Administration’s plan to limit the amount that high-income families (those with income of more than a quarter million dollars a year) can deduct from their taxes for charitable contributions will hurt these organizations – and do so at a time when these organizations’ resources are stretched because of the recession we inherited.   First, the proposed tax change would not be imposed during a recession (see my previous post on that topic).  Instead, it would begin in 2011 – at which point we expect the economy to be recovering.    Second, the money raised from the limits on itemized deductions would be used as part of the historic $634 billion reserve fund to fund health care reform. Reforming health care is essential to the long-term fiscal health of the country.  Indeed, bending the curve on health costs is the single most important thing we can do to get our country back on a sustainable long-term fiscal path.    Third, there’s a question of fairness.  Non-profits play a critical role in our society (indeed, I have worked at several of them in the past).  But let’s look at how the tax code treats two different contributors to a non-profit.  If you’re a teacher making $50,000 a year and decide to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross or United Way, you enjoy a tax break of $150.  If you are Warren Buffet or Bill Gates and you make that same donation, you get a $350 deduction – more than twice the break as the teacher.   This proposal walks that difference back some of the way – it would limit the tax benefit for Buffet or Gates to $280.  In other words, we are not eliminating the deduction – just reducing it to 28 percent (or $280 on the hypothetical $1,000 contribution) for the 5 percent of families at the very top of the income distribution.  That is the same tax benefit that they would have enjoyed at the end of the Reagan Administration.    Will this hurt charities?   The evidence suggests that many factors affect charitable contributions, including the desire to help the charity and overall economic conditions. (The most recent example with changing the tax code illustrates that point. Between 2002 and 2003, the top income tax deduction for charitable contributions was reduced from 38.6 percent to 35 percent – and yet individual charitable contributions rose, presumably because other factors were a more important influence on giving than the change in the income tax.) Furthermore, about 75 percent of overall contributions would not even be affected by the proposed income tax change – because the contributions come from individuals who would not be affected or from corporations or foundations not subject to the individual income tax. Finally, even to the extent that charitable contributions are affected by tax considerations, the budget contains other proposed changes (including retaining an estate tax) which will create stronger incentives for giving. Above all, though, the best way to boost charitable giving is to jumpstart the economy and raise incomes – and the purpose of the Recovery Act enacted earlier this month was to do precisely that.
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 9:28 am
Steve Douglass
This is a joke. The Nobama figures assume a growth of 6%. That’s ridiculous. We’re looking at a 4 to 5 year recession with the foolish measures Nobama is putting in place.
By Steve Douglass on 03/02/2009 6:50 pm
Z ****
Speaking of jokes….I take it you are a soothsayer who can predict the future.  I will say that it is obvious the Republicans are not going to do anything to help the situation.  
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 7:06 pm
Steve Douglass
Funny thing about history. To continuosly repeat an action expecting a different result is a sign of insanity. This Nobama plan has been tried several times before. And it always ended in disaster. It was a disaster when Roosevelt tried it, when Stalin tried it, when Castro tried it, when Chavez tried it, when Mao tried it.  But, I will say, Nobama is doing it on an even bigger scale, so he will cement his place in history as the worst POTUS.
By Steve Douglass on 03/02/2009 8:54 pm
Z ****
It was a disaster when Roosevelt tried it.   Well at least I understand your rationale…….misguided though it may be.   So I feel a whole lot better.
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 9:07 pm
Barbara Durso
Wasn’t there something in the papers last year about student loan officers at various colleges taking kick-backs from the student loan companies?  I think maybe it is a good idea to go back to direct student loans.  I think I remember something about them costing less in the long run than the loans that run through private lenders. 
By Barbara Durso on 03/01/2009 9:04 pm
Lori F.

What alarms me is that the president appears to have no confidence in private enterprise and, instead, enormous trust that the government can solve our problems.

Ms Peek’s observation is "spot on" about Obama. Obama has no confidence in the private sector because has never been in the private sector where working or running a business. From his grandmother to all the crooked deals he’s been involved with the get money, Obama doesn’t have a clean cut understanding of what makes America works! 

An economist specializing in financial markets gave a glimpse of the history of housing markets when he said: "Lending money to American homebuyers had been one of the least risky and most profitable businesses a bank could engage in for nearly a century."

But now since the government got involved its a mess.

The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 directed federal regulatory agencies to "encourage" banks and other lending institutions "to help meet the credit needs of the local communities in which they are chartered consistent with the safe and sound operation of such institutions."

 That sounds pretty innocent and, in fact, it had little effect for more than a decade. However, its premise was that bureaucrats and politicians know where loans should go, better than people who are in the business of making loans.

So government sticking there nose in it caused the problems we have today. And this so called Budget Plan Obama has will not solve anything but make it worst than what it is now. Even Buffet who voted for Obama said this thing is a dog!

By Lori F. on 03/02/2009 8:05 am
Z ****

What source do you have that Buffet said the package was a dog?    In a PBS interview on January 22, 2009 Buffet said regarding whether the stimulus would work:

The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run we don’t know how effective this will be and how quickly things will right themselves. We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again.
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 9:33 am
Susan Easterday

Hi Z—here’s a quote from Berkshire Hathaway’s letter to shareholders.  He didn’t exactly say the package was a dog…but just read it for yourself.  Of course, I’m sure he is talking about Bush and Obama.  Note: he is a Democrat. 

This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone “all in.” Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation. Moreover, major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won’t leave willingly.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf

By Susan Easterday on 03/02/2009 2:14 pm
Z ****
Obviously Buffet doesn’t think there is an alternative — or else he would say so….and he certainly doesn’t say it is a "dog".
By Z **** on 03/02/2009 4:12 pm