Lesley Stahl | 04/01/2008 9:55 am
Pollster Dotty Lynch on the Presidential Race Right Now: Is it Slipping Away From Sen. Clinton?
Here’s another of my regular conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, former CBS News election editor and now professor at American University.
LESLEY: Dotty, thanks for joining us again. Let’s start with a question about the Democrats. Over the last week there has been a drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama – and both Pew and the Wall St. Journal have recent polls saying Hillary’s negatives are climbing. Do you get the feeling that the race is inexorably slipping away from Senator Clinton?
DOTTY: Since New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign has been trying to buy time — hoping that scrutiny of Barack Obama would start to shift the race toward them. But Obama has remained the dominant force, and even though he was momentarily stalled during the Rev. Wright brouhaha, he has continued his momentum. The last week in particular has been bad for Clinton and time may not be on her side.
LESLEY: Bob Shrum (former campaign manager for Al Gore and long time Ted Kennedy speechwriter) is quoted in the New York Times today on how bad he thinks it will be if the primary campaign goes on and on with these negative attacks. "We could have a situation where we set gender and race against each other and we could lose the unlosable election in the bonfire of the vanities," he said.
It seems the sniping is hurting both Clintons – Hillary and Bill – far more than it is Obama. But looking back over past campaigns, don’t the candidates usually patch things up? Do these primary fights really weaken the standard bearer THAT much in the end? Can you think of an election when the candidate who lost did so because of a bruising primary battle?
DOTTY: The Carter folks are still mad at Kennedy for 1980 and blame him for the loss. And Sen. Kennedy himself has been warning about divisions in the party. But part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.
LESLEY: Let me ask you about the coming Primary in Pennsylvania. What do you make of Obama’s difficulty in winning over the blue-collar workers there – the coveted "Reagan Democrats’? Is it that they simply love Hillary? Or, is there some racism there? Or, is it something else entirely?
DOTTY: All of the above. What I love about the campaign in Pennsylvania is that it is forcing Obama to talk to these voters and come off his perch. The New York Times reported this morning that the word "blather" originated here and I think it will be a great test of Obama’s ability to expand his reach. Clinton has been connecting with blue-collar voters throughout the campaign because of message and language. A Pew poll last week found some of these voters holding racially intolerant positions and even found a chunk of them believing Obama is a Muslim. This is an opportunity for Obama as well as a test.
LESLEY: I assume, then, from what you say, that so far Obama has not made much headway with that group. Let me point out something that came home to me this morning … If Hillary and Obama slog it out until the convention, which is in late August, there will be only two months to make up, and draw the party together …
Beyond the presidential contest, Dotty, what are you hearing about the Congressional races. Do the Democrats have a chance to get that 60-plus-one margin in the Senate?
DOTTY: Almost no one is hearing about anything but the presidential race. But if money is an indicator this should be a big year for Democrats. They are out-fundraising the Republicans at every level and so far 29 Republicans in the House have said they won’t run again. A bloody fight through the summer could distract from these contests — which is one reason I think superdelegates will move to anoint someone by early July if not before.
LESLEY: Let’s talk about the Republicans. I’m just reading what feels like my 20th major, long article on McCain’s out-of-control temper. This one’s in Newsweek. I wonder if you think the issue of McCain’s temperament will gain traction. And more important: can any issue really take off unless and until it’s demonstrated on Youtube? So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.
DOTTY: All it has to take is one — on camera. Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain "moment.” But I agree until there is video it won’t take hold. And then the issue is: Does this temper make him dysfunctional or just another Harry Truman and another sign of his authenticity.
LESLEY: Final question. Did you see my interview with Al Gore on "60 Minutes?" I’ve had a flood of comments about how relaxed and content he seems. I guess you could say there’s nothing that a Nobel and a barrel of money that you make on your own won’t cure! Do you take him at his word that he doesn’t want to be the "honest broker?” Have you seen any sign that he might endorse one or the other (everyone assumes he leans to Obama ….), or that he would consider being the dark horse at the convention?
DOTTY: I have always believed Al Gore hates politics and loves the globe. He knows presidential talk gets him into the news but he wants that publicity to sell his global warming message. He knows there have been studies showing that some of the reason his global warming message has stalled is because Republicans have identified it with him, which is why the new ads feature people like Pat Robertson and Newt Gingrich.
Having said that, of course, he also has an ego and if he could be handed the nomination, he’d grab it. And if he could be the one to broker peace between Hillary and Barack he would deserve a lifetime Nobel.

























69 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment