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Lesley Stahl | 04/01/2008 9:55 am

Pollster Dotty Lynch on the Presidential Race Right Now: Is it Slipping Away From Sen. Clinton?

Lesley Stahl

Here’s another of my regular conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, former CBS News election editor and now professor at American University.

LESLEY: Dotty, thanks for joining us again. Let’s start with a question about the Democrats. Over the last week there has been a drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama – and both Pew and the Wall St. Journal have recent polls saying Hillary’s negatives are climbing. Do you get the feeling that the race is inexorably slipping away from Senator Clinton?

DOTTY: Since New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign has been trying to buy time — hoping that scrutiny of Barack Obama would start to shift the race toward them. But Obama has remained the dominant force, and even though he was momentarily stalled during the Rev. Wright brouhaha, he has continued his momentum. The last week in particular has been bad for Clinton and time may not be on her side.

LESLEY: Bob Shrum (former campaign manager for Al Gore and long time Ted Kennedy speechwriter) is quoted in the New York Times today on how bad he thinks it will be if the primary campaign goes on and on with these negative attacks. "We could have a situation where we set gender and race against each other and we could lose the unlosable election in the bonfire of the vanities," he said.

It seems the sniping is hurting both Clintons – Hillary and Bill – far more than it is Obama. But looking back over past campaigns, don’t the candidates usually patch things up? Do these primary fights really weaken the standard bearer THAT much in the end? Can you think of an election when the candidate who lost did so because of a bruising primary battle?

DOTTY: The Carter folks are still mad at Kennedy for 1980 and blame him for the loss. And Sen. Kennedy himself has been warning about divisions in the party. But part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.

LESLEY: Let me ask you about the coming Primary in Pennsylvania. What do you make of Obama’s difficulty in winning over the blue-collar workers there – the coveted "Reagan Democrats’? Is it that they simply love Hillary? Or, is there some racism there? Or, is it something else entirely?

DOTTY: All of the above. What I love about the campaign in Pennsylvania is that it is forcing Obama to talk to these voters and come off his perch. The New York Times reported this morning that the word "blather" originated here and I think it will be a great test of Obama’s ability to expand his reach. Clinton has been connecting with blue-collar voters throughout the campaign because of message and language. A Pew poll last week found some of these voters holding racially intolerant positions and even found a chunk of them believing Obama is a Muslim. This is an opportunity for Obama as well as a test.

LESLEY: I assume, then, from what you say, that so far Obama has not made much headway with that group. Let me point out something that came home to me this morning … If Hillary and Obama slog it out until the convention, which is in late August, there will be only two months to make up, and draw the party together …

Beyond the presidential contest, Dotty, what are you hearing about the Congressional races. Do the Democrats have a chance to get that 60-plus-one margin in the Senate?

DOTTY: Almost no one is hearing about anything but the presidential race. But if money is an indicator this should be a big year for Democrats. They are out-fundraising the Republicans at every level and so far 29 Republicans in the House have said they won’t run again. A bloody fight through the summer could distract from these contests — which is one reason I think superdelegates will move to anoint someone by early July if not before.

LESLEY: Let’s talk about the Republicans. I’m just reading what feels like my 20th major, long article on McCain’s out-of-control temper. This one’s in Newsweek. I wonder if you think the issue of McCain’s temperament will gain traction. And more important: can any issue really take off unless and until it’s demonstrated on Youtube? So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.

DOTTY: All it has to take is one — on camera. Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain "moment.” But I agree until there is video it won’t take hold. And then the issue is: Does this temper make him dysfunctional or just another Harry Truman and another sign of his authenticity.

LESLEY: Final question. Did you see my interview with Al Gore on "60 Minutes?" I’ve had a flood of comments about how relaxed and content he seems. I guess you could say there’s nothing that a Nobel and a barrel of money that you make on your own won’t cure! Do you take him at his word that he doesn’t want to be the "honest broker?” Have you seen any sign that he might endorse one or the other (everyone assumes he leans to Obama ….), or that he would consider being the dark horse at the convention?

DOTTY: I have always believed Al Gore hates politics and loves the globe. He knows presidential talk gets him into the news but he wants that publicity to sell his global warming message. He knows there have been studies showing that some of the reason his global warming message has stalled is because Republicans have identified it with him, which is why the new ads feature people like Pat Robertson and Newt Gingrich.

Having said that, of course, he also has an ego and if he could be handed the nomination, he’d grab it. And if he could be the one to broker peace between Hillary and Barack he would deserve a lifetime Nobel.

69 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Rita T
I live in the deep South and I have to tell you that a lot of people down here, Democrats I might add, are saying that they cannot support the Democratic ticket for both sexist and racist reasons. It is that mentality that keeps the South under the Republican thumb. And it is one that I am ashamed of the most—I just cannot understand why people are so racist in this day and age. Shouldn’t we beyond that at this point?
By Rita T on 04/01/2008 10:20 am
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Rita, Obama’s sweep of ‘Red’ solidly white states, and Hillary being the only other contester, proves this is not 1950s America. Stereotyping is enflamed more by the right-wing media—Rush, Ann Coulter, Michael Savage, et al—than culturally. If it were true that we are an implacably racist-sexist society, Oprah, wouldn’t be the richest person in entertainment. I’m guilty of painting the GOP as a white male club dedicated to maintaining their power structure. And was a bit surprised then by my ardently GOP brother who lives in a very exclusive area and has done everything to ensure his son’s success in a sports career. My nephew’s closest friend was the only child of a single black mother and regarded as an outstanding young man. He and his mother were at the top of the guest list for most family holidays and activities at my brother’s. When he was killed in a car accident my brother and his wife were nearly physically ill, they supported his mother to the upmost. When she developed breast cancer they stuck by her to the end. My brother gave her eulogy. My point is that the Fox-type sensationalists sell newspapers, air time and profit by distracting the populace and perpetuating divisiveness. If we really examine own extended circles we can thankfully see a very different picture. And be certain that Abraham, Martin and John would be enthralled by this race. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsYscCNWRiY&feature=related
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/01/2008 2:03 pm
Jozie Lee
Many thanks for the link, Suzanne de Cornelia. That was beautiful. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsYscCNWRiY&feature=related
By Jozie Lee on 04/01/2008 9:28 pm
Frank Peterson
There’s an very telling article in the current New York Review of Books on this subject called “Molehill Politics”. Well worth reading. Unless both camps, Obama’s and Clinton’s get together and hash out differences McCain is going win. The polarizing of those two camps is splitting the Dems and frankly the only person benefiting from this is McCain. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21231
By Frank Peterson on 04/01/2008 10:55 am
Addie Pray
FLASH!! John McCain just selected Hillary Clinton as his running mate. April Fool.
By Addie Pray on 04/01/2008 11:18 am
Chips AHoey
I think a good question would be to ask us if Obama supporters (that are female in here) feel guilty for favoring Obama over Clinton - I really like Obama but I do feel like I’m turning my back on a moment in history we have been waiting for - I don’t think this primary fight is polarizing to keep it going either - it shows we democrats give a damn, nothing worse than a complacent voter! we’ll have plenty of time to turn our attention to Senator McCain, don’t worry…
By Chips AHoey on 04/01/2008 11:21 am
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Dear Anne-I’m an Obama supporter and I respect Clinton supporters. But no, I don’t feel guilty one bit. I would not vote for anyone who voted for the Iraq War.
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/01/2008 2:19 pm
Kay Sara
How do you feel voting for someone who voted to give the oil companies huge tax breaks when they have HUGE profits? Oil and Iraq War are tied together- even if not talked about openly.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 9:54 am
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Suzanne, I agree that it is obscene to be giving oil subsidies and tax breaks to the oil industry. Esp when Exxon, the world’s largest corporation, is having its greatest profitability ever because of the Bush Admin’s oil war. The bill that is referred to by Senator Clinton provided billions in energy tax credits to polluting industries, which esp helped Obama’s coal producing state. Also, the GOP was in control at the time of the 2005 vote, and of course complex bills often come with riders etc so that sometimes the good outweighs the bad and vice versa. http://www.wtop.com/?nid=213&sid=1345523 Good News is groups like Global Green: http://www.globalgreen.org/ Here are photos from their 3rd Annual Benefit in my home town, San Francisco. http://www.newyorksocialdiary.com/node/4602
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/05/2008 9:51 pm
Esther Bradley-DeTally
I am white, 69, and vote nonpartisan. I don’t feel guilty at all. Both Obama and Clinton have revealed character or the lack thereof. I became turned off on Clinton when she started attacking Obama and impressed with Obama because he keeps his stuff to a higher level of integrity. How about the most momentous time in our history would be someone who has integrity, and would end the gargoyles’ and crocodiles’ rhetoric .This is a time I’m waiting for and many others. Doesn’t anyone see it. the old way just doesn’t work anymore. Don’t most people mistrust politicians. That said, the people who swarm around the next President should call themselves into account each day. This is about the maturation of the human race.
By Esther Bradley-DeTally on 04/01/2008 5:19 pm
Simmy Sussman
You seem to be oblivious to the many,many denigrating remarks made by Obama and his surrogates regarding Clinton that question her honesty, misrepresent her health plan, and in fact ran a flurry of dishonestly skewed tv spots ala Harry and Louise right out of the GOP playbook in Alaska, Ohio, that totally misrepresented her healthplan and for all I know still is ongoing. In Nevada I saw flyers given out by Obama campaigners that asked Republicans to vote for Obama, and said you can change your vote in the general. Really ethical, eh? I have heard ongoing exaggerations,slurs,misstatements and diatribe by obama & Michelle [“I would not vote for Hillary”, etc., when asked by NBC]. It’s fine with me that you’re an Obama fan, but please don’t talk about the “high road” when last I looked at Obama’s website The Black Panther’s ads are back after being scrubbed during the Wright episodes. The High Road? His campaign [meaning Obama] are applying pressure for Hillary to cave and are doing it shamefully by refusing to revote and disenfranchise Florida and Mi. The democratic party is not being democratic and the fix is in by Dean and party elders to ditch Clinton. So, I guess this is what you so glibly call “The High Road”. Obama’s disgraceful kickbacks from Tony Rezko in Chicago were fully examined in the Chicago Sun Times when his dealings with slumlord and Obama fundraiser Rezko were given 2 years of investigative journalistm attention. Obama keeps remembering different amounts of money Rezko “the fixer” fundraised for him. First, $50,000 then became $68,000, then it morphed into $150,000, and now it’s up around $500,00. Rezko is now on trial for political kickbacks,money laundering, etc in Federal court in Chicago. Obama was a close associate of mentor Rezko for 12 years right up to his senate race with funds raised by Rezko. In fact the swetheart deal in which Obama paid Rita Rezko $104,000 for $625,000 worth of adjacent home property that she paid upfront was uncovered by the Sun Times. Obama’s reply? “It was boneheaded of me. ” It sure was Esther, as Rezko was under federal investigation leading to his indictment WHEN Obama took this kickback. This is hardly the high road for someone aspiring to be the Leader of The Free World who says it was a “boneheaded mistake”. You haven’t done your homework, and if you care to access the suntimes.com and see their archives on Obama’s resume you might be surprised about his “integrity”. Whatever gargoyles’ and crocodiles’ you are talking about seem not to have entirely parted with the swamps of the Chicago political machine.
By Simmy Sussman on 04/02/2008 7:34 pm
Star Lawrence
Did you see the latest Maureen Dowd…she took sort of a break from mugging Clinton (just a few quick punches) and had some amusing stuff about Obama kissing women (wasn’t that supposed to be babies) on the campaign trail and calling them sweetie, to delighted titters, of course. He also went to a chocolate factory and joked about how it was too decadent for him. Oh, for heaven’s sakes, eat the chocolate. He also was on Chris Matthews saying first, he would solve the housing crisis so he could get to better things…yeah, exactly how… He also said if he got the votes, he had earned this nomination, so there. Four yrs of this stuff? I will need full-body botox!
By Star Lawrence on 04/03/2008 12:05 pm
Ginny G.
I’m with you, Star. This is not a Hollywood screen test. If the outcome wasn’t so critical to us all, we could sit back and watch the movie, but it is a real job. When I hire someone, I want to know what they have previously accomplished that is a good indicator of how they will perform in the future. Still waiting to hear that from Senator O. PS: I’ve given up on Maureen. Switch to Gail Collins. She is just as funny, but not so mean-spirited, and at least tries to be balanced.
By Ginny G. on 04/04/2008 3:23 pm
beth willis
Anne, we have to remove the emotion from the process: the guilt, the popularity, the holding of grudges. If people change, we need to let them. Senator Clinton has changed from the days as first lady; her record in the Senate and her response from her colleagues is respect and collaboration. If people change we ought to let them. I don’t need to like the presidential candidate; I need to repect her and her knowledge of the US situation and solutions for making steps toward rebuilding our county. I am a dedicated Senator Clinton delegate but she should never have built her campaign around “Hillary”. She holds an esteemed elected office whish requires more respect than being on a first name basis. None of the men are called by their first names. It’s the little things that can make big differences. Look at Dean last year.
By beth willis on 04/05/2008 2:59 am
Mary Matthews
Addie’s very funny, but how will women vote if Obama gets the Democratic nomination and McCain selects Kay Bailey Hutchison as his running mate?
By Mary Matthews on 04/01/2008 11:23 am