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Lesley Stahl | 04/01/2008 9:55 am

Pollster Dotty Lynch on the Presidential Race Right Now: Is it Slipping Away From Sen. Clinton?

Lesley Stahl

Here’s another of my regular conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, former CBS News election editor and now professor at American University.

LESLEY: Dotty, thanks for joining us again. Let’s start with a question about the Democrats. Over the last week there has been a drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama – and both Pew and the Wall St. Journal have recent polls saying Hillary’s negatives are climbing. Do you get the feeling that the race is inexorably slipping away from Senator Clinton?

DOTTY: Since New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign has been trying to buy time — hoping that scrutiny of Barack Obama would start to shift the race toward them. But Obama has remained the dominant force, and even though he was momentarily stalled during the Rev. Wright brouhaha, he has continued his momentum. The last week in particular has been bad for Clinton and time may not be on her side.

LESLEY: Bob Shrum (former campaign manager for Al Gore and long time Ted Kennedy speechwriter) is quoted in the New York Times today on how bad he thinks it will be if the primary campaign goes on and on with these negative attacks. "We could have a situation where we set gender and race against each other and we could lose the unlosable election in the bonfire of the vanities," he said.

It seems the sniping is hurting both Clintons – Hillary and Bill – far more than it is Obama. But looking back over past campaigns, don’t the candidates usually patch things up? Do these primary fights really weaken the standard bearer THAT much in the end? Can you think of an election when the candidate who lost did so because of a bruising primary battle?

DOTTY: The Carter folks are still mad at Kennedy for 1980 and blame him for the loss. And Sen. Kennedy himself has been warning about divisions in the party. But part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.

LESLEY: Let me ask you about the coming Primary in Pennsylvania. What do you make of Obama’s difficulty in winning over the blue-collar workers there – the coveted "Reagan Democrats’? Is it that they simply love Hillary? Or, is there some racism there? Or, is it something else entirely?

DOTTY: All of the above. What I love about the campaign in Pennsylvania is that it is forcing Obama to talk to these voters and come off his perch. The New York Times reported this morning that the word "blather" originated here and I think it will be a great test of Obama’s ability to expand his reach. Clinton has been connecting with blue-collar voters throughout the campaign because of message and language. A Pew poll last week found some of these voters holding racially intolerant positions and even found a chunk of them believing Obama is a Muslim. This is an opportunity for Obama as well as a test.

LESLEY: I assume, then, from what you say, that so far Obama has not made much headway with that group. Let me point out something that came home to me this morning … If Hillary and Obama slog it out until the convention, which is in late August, there will be only two months to make up, and draw the party together …

Beyond the presidential contest, Dotty, what are you hearing about the Congressional races. Do the Democrats have a chance to get that 60-plus-one margin in the Senate?

DOTTY: Almost no one is hearing about anything but the presidential race. But if money is an indicator this should be a big year for Democrats. They are out-fundraising the Republicans at every level and so far 29 Republicans in the House have said they won’t run again. A bloody fight through the summer could distract from these contests — which is one reason I think superdelegates will move to anoint someone by early July if not before.

LESLEY: Let’s talk about the Republicans. I’m just reading what feels like my 20th major, long article on McCain’s out-of-control temper. This one’s in Newsweek. I wonder if you think the issue of McCain’s temperament will gain traction. And more important: can any issue really take off unless and until it’s demonstrated on Youtube? So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.

DOTTY: All it has to take is one — on camera. Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain "moment.” But I agree until there is video it won’t take hold. And then the issue is: Does this temper make him dysfunctional or just another Harry Truman and another sign of his authenticity.

LESLEY: Final question. Did you see my interview with Al Gore on "60 Minutes?" I’ve had a flood of comments about how relaxed and content he seems. I guess you could say there’s nothing that a Nobel and a barrel of money that you make on your own won’t cure! Do you take him at his word that he doesn’t want to be the "honest broker?” Have you seen any sign that he might endorse one or the other (everyone assumes he leans to Obama ….), or that he would consider being the dark horse at the convention?

DOTTY: I have always believed Al Gore hates politics and loves the globe. He knows presidential talk gets him into the news but he wants that publicity to sell his global warming message. He knows there have been studies showing that some of the reason his global warming message has stalled is because Republicans have identified it with him, which is why the new ads feature people like Pat Robertson and Newt Gingrich.

Having said that, of course, he also has an ego and if he could be handed the nomination, he’d grab it. And if he could be the one to broker peace between Hillary and Barack he would deserve a lifetime Nobel.

69 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Mugsy Peabody
Or Condi Rice?
By Mugsy Peabody on 04/01/2008 8:26 pm
Upanaway
KBH, or Condi? Then he is an ass!
By Upanaway on 04/01/2008 9:17 pm
beth willis
Kay Bailey Hutchison is not going to run for VP. She has her eye on the Governorship of Texas so that she can bring her babies home to grow up Texan. I am a strong Clinton delegate but will support him if he gets the nomination because he will have the benefit of Clinton’s experience and intelligence. Why all the preditions: we’ve never been in this historical situation before. We don’t know what we’ll ever do about situations we’ve never experienced.
By beth willis on 04/05/2008 3:06 am
Renata
RitaT: One of the American ironies is the Republican stranglehold leveraging the “Southern Strategy” and gender politics — for a part of the Nation that conversely depends economically on States that do not vote and/or manage their affairs in this stagnant and dysfunctional way. We are asked, and rightly so, to help rebuild the Southern region after disasters. Who the money comes from doesn’t matter and includes both African-Americans and women’s taxes. This is a responsiblility we all willingly embrace. WHEN will the South stop holding America back by following a dysfunctional and divisive voting pattern that relies strictly on a candidate’s gender or race? The Nation demands a more sophisticated and MATURE assessment of candidates. As with the NY-based Financial industries, we taxpayers should NOT be required to repeatedly bail them out if they do not submit to REGULATION. The South cannot have it BOTH ways any longer. Democratic policies while voting Republican based upon a FLAWED policy. Turn the page. Please.
By Renata on 04/01/2008 12:01 pm
Barbara
The race isn’t slipping away from Senator Clinton, it is being actively shoved away by her actions. She comes across as arrogant, deceitful, willing to do anything for her personal gain. It is a real shame. I very much want to vote for a woman, but I will not vote for this woman. I have to vote more for the person I feel can best fill the role. I am undecided between Obama and McCain. I am adamantly opposed to McCain’s stance on the war but I like his position on several other things. I very much appreciate Obama’s intelligent, thoughtful approach to issues.
By Barbara on 04/01/2008 12:12 pm
Jane Richards
How many others are longing for the day when we vote for a candidate based on their qualifications instead of the race/gender stuff? Probably won’t happen until the media quits scrutinizing every poll and primary that way.
By Jane Richards on 04/01/2008 12:31 pm
Kay Sara
I long for the day when sexism and sex discrimination no longer exists for all women. I have been in a gender bias, glass ceiling lawsuit with my employer since Sept. 2004! Sex Discrimination is rampant and our country and judicial system makes it almost impossible to challenge it.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 10:02 am
Phyllis Mathis
The press serves up a kind of political pornography - focusing on the juicy bits because just plain politics isn’t sexy enough to keep us interested. On top of that is an obsession with trying to predict the future, using every sound bite, every misplaced word as tea leaf, bird carcass, tarot card or crystal ball. The future is the future. Anything can happen. One good thing about the Democratic race dragging on is that we have the opportunity to view character in action. I’m very disappointed with what I’ve seen from Hillary in that regard, and quite impressed, on the other hand, with Obama.
By Phyllis Mathis on 04/01/2008 12:57 pm
Kay Sara
Does Obama’s pandering make you proud? Bowling (a 37), drinking Yingling beer - I wish he had the courage to be who he really is. He appears to be a finicky eater - hardly one of the “people” he is trying to reach and connect with.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 10:06 am
Star Lawrence
He’s a bad bowler—one hack described him as dainty even. But let’s get back to the Clinton bashing—you wasted a whole second on this!
By Star Lawrence on 04/02/2008 11:03 am
Star Lawrence
Oh—and you should know Obama had a revelation, he says. Someone told him he was looking for a job and had to spend a lot for gas just to go to interviews. Obama said he had not thought of this before—that people burned gas and it might not be to get to a job, just to look for a job. He never thought of this? Could we condescend more? Yes, probably.
By Star Lawrence on 04/02/2008 11:06 am
Kay Sara
Funny!
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 11:44 am
A B
Lesley, do you consider this a balanced interview? Within your question: “Is the race slipping away from Hillary?”, you stack your own answer: “… drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama … Hillary’s negatives are climbing.” And what is a reader supposed to think with dialogue like this… LESLEY: “McCain’s out-of-control temper… .So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.” DOTTY: “Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain ‘moment’.”
By A B on 04/01/2008 1:19 pm
Upanaway
AB, you did it again. I’m through sipping green tea on this website! Please, at least change your Monogram now and then, so I won’t know who you are! ;-)) Kudos, many times over. Something’s gone south in interviewing the past 20 years. First “Barbara” was slipping sadly, now its most interviewers. I’m tired.
By Upanaway on 04/01/2008 9:20 pm
A B
Upanaway, one has to wonder why Leslie did not ask the follow-up question when Dotty said: “… part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.” The follow-up would have to look at the flaws of not only Hillary but also of Obama. Why are the arms of the media too short to box with Obama? The answer lies in the question.
By A B on 04/02/2008 9:29 am