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Lesley Stahl | 04/01/2008 9:55 am

Pollster Dotty Lynch on the Presidential Race Right Now: Is it Slipping Away From Sen. Clinton?

Lesley Stahl

Here’s another of my regular conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, former CBS News election editor and now professor at American University.

LESLEY: Dotty, thanks for joining us again. Let’s start with a question about the Democrats. Over the last week there has been a drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama – and both Pew and the Wall St. Journal have recent polls saying Hillary’s negatives are climbing. Do you get the feeling that the race is inexorably slipping away from Senator Clinton?

DOTTY: Since New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign has been trying to buy time — hoping that scrutiny of Barack Obama would start to shift the race toward them. But Obama has remained the dominant force, and even though he was momentarily stalled during the Rev. Wright brouhaha, he has continued his momentum. The last week in particular has been bad for Clinton and time may not be on her side.

LESLEY: Bob Shrum (former campaign manager for Al Gore and long time Ted Kennedy speechwriter) is quoted in the New York Times today on how bad he thinks it will be if the primary campaign goes on and on with these negative attacks. "We could have a situation where we set gender and race against each other and we could lose the unlosable election in the bonfire of the vanities," he said.

It seems the sniping is hurting both Clintons – Hillary and Bill – far more than it is Obama. But looking back over past campaigns, don’t the candidates usually patch things up? Do these primary fights really weaken the standard bearer THAT much in the end? Can you think of an election when the candidate who lost did so because of a bruising primary battle?

DOTTY: The Carter folks are still mad at Kennedy for 1980 and blame him for the loss. And Sen. Kennedy himself has been warning about divisions in the party. But part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.

LESLEY: Let me ask you about the coming Primary in Pennsylvania. What do you make of Obama’s difficulty in winning over the blue-collar workers there – the coveted "Reagan Democrats’? Is it that they simply love Hillary? Or, is there some racism there? Or, is it something else entirely?

DOTTY: All of the above. What I love about the campaign in Pennsylvania is that it is forcing Obama to talk to these voters and come off his perch. The New York Times reported this morning that the word "blather" originated here and I think it will be a great test of Obama’s ability to expand his reach. Clinton has been connecting with blue-collar voters throughout the campaign because of message and language. A Pew poll last week found some of these voters holding racially intolerant positions and even found a chunk of them believing Obama is a Muslim. This is an opportunity for Obama as well as a test.

LESLEY: I assume, then, from what you say, that so far Obama has not made much headway with that group. Let me point out something that came home to me this morning … If Hillary and Obama slog it out until the convention, which is in late August, there will be only two months to make up, and draw the party together …

Beyond the presidential contest, Dotty, what are you hearing about the Congressional races. Do the Democrats have a chance to get that 60-plus-one margin in the Senate?

DOTTY: Almost no one is hearing about anything but the presidential race. But if money is an indicator this should be a big year for Democrats. They are out-fundraising the Republicans at every level and so far 29 Republicans in the House have said they won’t run again. A bloody fight through the summer could distract from these contests — which is one reason I think superdelegates will move to anoint someone by early July if not before.

LESLEY: Let’s talk about the Republicans. I’m just reading what feels like my 20th major, long article on McCain’s out-of-control temper. This one’s in Newsweek. I wonder if you think the issue of McCain’s temperament will gain traction. And more important: can any issue really take off unless and until it’s demonstrated on Youtube? So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.

DOTTY: All it has to take is one — on camera. Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain "moment.” But I agree until there is video it won’t take hold. And then the issue is: Does this temper make him dysfunctional or just another Harry Truman and another sign of his authenticity.

LESLEY: Final question. Did you see my interview with Al Gore on "60 Minutes?" I’ve had a flood of comments about how relaxed and content he seems. I guess you could say there’s nothing that a Nobel and a barrel of money that you make on your own won’t cure! Do you take him at his word that he doesn’t want to be the "honest broker?” Have you seen any sign that he might endorse one or the other (everyone assumes he leans to Obama ….), or that he would consider being the dark horse at the convention?

DOTTY: I have always believed Al Gore hates politics and loves the globe. He knows presidential talk gets him into the news but he wants that publicity to sell his global warming message. He knows there have been studies showing that some of the reason his global warming message has stalled is because Republicans have identified it with him, which is why the new ads feature people like Pat Robertson and Newt Gingrich.

Having said that, of course, he also has an ego and if he could be handed the nomination, he’d grab it. And if he could be the one to broker peace between Hillary and Barack he would deserve a lifetime Nobel.

69 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

Kay Sara
Thanks for pointing this out, AB. I am also tired of tainted reporting. When I took journalism in college it was focused on facts- just the facts. Op Ed pages were for opinions.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 9:59 am
DG JENK
I have to agree with Barbara…Clinton is alienating people by her behavior…lying…etc. I won’t feel any guilt NOT voting for her because she is a woman….too bad because I would have voted for the “right” woman. I too only want a candidate to vote for based upon their integrity and character and qualifications. The way things are now, it’s going to be a really tough decision….for everyone.
By DG JENK on 04/01/2008 1:20 pm
Mugsy Peabody
Why is it that we’re still talking about race in terms of black and white???????? John McCain said (and did not dispute that he said), ” ”I hated the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live.” Is this a person we would want within a thousand miles of the Chinese government discussing how on earth we are planning to repay the money we owe them for this stupid war? Why are we not horrified that such a person could even be seriously considered for elective office. Sure, he was a prisoner of war. So what? So were a lot of other people. That doesn’t make him qualified to lead the United States. The Asian people I know sit back and watch us debate “race,” leaving them out of every discussion, and think we are totally ignorant. And we are. We are.
By Mugsy Peabody on 04/01/2008 8:32 pm
Simmy Sussman
Asians have totally been ignored in the current debate regarding race and gender. And for sure everyone at MSCNBC has contributed their share to despicable mysogynist comments and behavior. Is it any different from Obama’s remark about “typical white prople”? Race has not been fully addressed, and regarding McCain’s Bush light strategy on Iraq and Taxes, he is certainly not someone who I feel is qualified.
By Simmy Sussman on 04/02/2008 7:47 pm
Upanaway
Diana, do you really believe that politicians tell the truth? How, praytel, do you know Obama has not lied? He’s so covert, it’s nigh unto impossible to figure that man out, and I’ve done as much research on him as one person can - and I’ve tried to be open-minded because we have a lot of time before taking “sides.” I’m hoping Nader comes forward and demands more time. The networks are shamefully ignoring him, yet gave the bruiser more airtime than anyone else trying to squizzle in on this race. The system’s broken; it’s not the people, pe se, it’s the game put forth to swing this election - follow the dots to ROVE!
By Upanaway on 04/02/2008 3:45 am
Kay Sara
Obama’s political “godfather” from Chicago - there was an article on him as being like The Godfather in tactics. Another Obama association that says a lot . Yet Obama supporters are so quick to say Hillary will do anything to win. Politics is politics and Obama is not authentic or genuine- just watch him try to connect with PA by bowling.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 10:11 am
DG JENK
Upanaway- You do have a point. And no I do not know for a fact that Obama has not “lied”….no way to “prove” that….according to history MOST politicians “lie”, so do most people…because we are not perfect…never will be. I’m just saying with all the “Media” getting things skewed it makes it hard for all of us to make a decision, because at this point in time I don’t have a clear answer as to who I should vote for. There is so much stuff out there, you don’t know who’s story / side to take even when you do the research (as you have). Don’t you feel the same way to some extent?
By DG JENK on 04/02/2008 10:33 am
Renata
How many women and/or African-Americans do we LOSE from optimally serving the Nation’s critical needs because of superficiality and politics based upon dated and tired old paradigms such as the Nixonian/Buchanan “Southern Strategy.” Could we have cured Cancer or transitioned better from a manufacturing society to an information/financial/services society without the Middle-Class LOSING its financial stability — had this NOT been the case? WHOSE ideas are being sidelined by continuing to marginalize women and African-Americans for superficial reasons? What problems could we have solved had there been more opportunities for ALL Americans to fulfill their potential? At no time in our history has there been a NEED for us to draw upon the best of ALL Americans, than now. The last 7 years have demonstrated even to our Republican brethern the limitations of outdated policies and attempts to hold on to POWER for powers’ sake. America and Americans have more relevancy and meaning domestically and internationally, than that. We are at an inflection point whereby we have a chance to move BEYOND old paradigms to a new place in our history. The Conservative movement was a reaction to the 60s. The pendulum is swinging again. We can ALL feel it intuitively, which is why Republican citizen patriots are considering voting for Mr. Obama. Independents have gravitated to a consensus builder vs. a fighter. We are ALL fought out. Mr. Obama cannot change the paradigm and terrain of our politics ALONE, nor should it be ONLY his responsibility to do so. We ALL have a role to play and it takes courage to change and effect change. Ironically, once again in our history it is the young who are paving the way. Unburdened with dated formulas or old grievances, they have no axes to grind. They are believers in the American ideals despite current economic and war crises we find ourselves in. America will NEED them to remain idealistic and hopful. The boomers should recognize and support them and the leader they are choosing. It and we will be THEIR burden to carry. Our collective dreams to have a woman President in our lifetime is trivial compared to the challenges our children will face in the “new world order” the Bush/Clinton/Bush dynasties ushered in. Let’s help them turn the page and get to work — for all our sakes.
By Renata on 04/01/2008 1:47 pm
Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye
Renata- Very well said, per usual!
By Buh-Bye Hillary Hillary Buh-Bye on 04/01/2008 2:25 pm
iris odonata
I am not pleased that super delegates will “anoint” a candidate. This is not a coronation, investiture, nor a football game of keeping the offense from achieving first down. Given the now historical, yet modern day heist of the last two elections, our discussions may be moot, as the outcome may have already been decided.
By iris odonata on 04/01/2008 1:54 pm
Sherrie Crews
Jane Richards - 4/1/2008 12:31 PM How many others are longing for the day when we vote for a candidate based on their qualifications instead of the race/gender stuff? Probably won’t happen until the media quits scrutinizing every poll and primary that way.” Exactly. The media has been playing the candidates against each other by making everything about race and gender. As far as the racial and gender bias in the south, I see a lot of that and I also know people here in Virginia that only vote Republican to make sure the NRA stays in power. I’m not joking. That is the only issue they talk about or even seem to know about.
By Sherrie Crews on 04/01/2008 1:59 pm
Renata
Thanks, Suzanne. :-)
By Renata on 04/01/2008 2:28 pm
Renata
Hillary forgot it is a PRIVILEGE not an ENTITLEMENT to run as the first female candidate who has a chance to make it to the Presidency. That PRIVILEGE comes with enormous RESPONSIBILITIES I believe she would have remembered had she run independent of her husband and been distracted. I was heartened when she briefly remembered in NH, when she said she had “found” her voice. Then, Bill was BACK…in SC, doing HIS thing and distracting and debasing her and the Electorate. Hillary has squandered an opportunity for herself and American women, because she is too dependent on Bill — whose time has passed. Her fused candidacy was doomed from the start because Bill is part of the Bush/Clinton/Bush dynasties and, when a Democratic Congress gets to work evaluating the past 7 years, we will all see how much these dynasties were connected — in Office and out — in a cycle of profiteering of the interests of Americans. Turn the page and let’s help our children prepare to assume THEIR ROLE AND DESTINY, while we boomers are healthy enough to do so. It is now THEIR future.
By Renata on 04/01/2008 2:35 pm
Mugsy Peabody
If you’d heard her speak or read her statements, you would know that this is totally not true. And what on earth are you even talking about Clinton being part of the Bush paradigm. To quote Ms. Goldberg in another context, “Are you crazy??????”
By Mugsy Peabody on 04/01/2008 8:35 pm
Kay Sara
To run for president is not a privelege or entitlement- it is a right. And as a baby boomer- I am not dead yet, I still have a future while I am supporting my college age children and paying the mortgage and trying to keep my job from going overseas. I am not ready just yet to turn the reigns over with all of our major problems to kids who are not yet responsible for the lives and well being others other than their own. And I have excellent kids- one got a full ride acedemic scholarship to Univ. Michigan Medical School, the other got a 50% scholarship for out east college and they are good to me and we love and respect each other.
By Kay Sara on 04/02/2008 10:16 am