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Lesley Stahl | 04/01/2008 9:55 am

Pollster Dotty Lynch on the Presidential Race Right Now: Is it Slipping Away From Sen. Clinton?

Lesley Stahl

Here’s another of my regular conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, former CBS News election editor and now professor at American University.

LESLEY: Dotty, thanks for joining us again. Let’s start with a question about the Democrats. Over the last week there has been a drip, drip, drip of superdelegates declaring for Obama – and both Pew and the Wall St. Journal have recent polls saying Hillary’s negatives are climbing. Do you get the feeling that the race is inexorably slipping away from Senator Clinton?

DOTTY: Since New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign has been trying to buy time — hoping that scrutiny of Barack Obama would start to shift the race toward them. But Obama has remained the dominant force, and even though he was momentarily stalled during the Rev. Wright brouhaha, he has continued his momentum. The last week in particular has been bad for Clinton and time may not be on her side.

LESLEY: Bob Shrum (former campaign manager for Al Gore and long time Ted Kennedy speechwriter) is quoted in the New York Times today on how bad he thinks it will be if the primary campaign goes on and on with these negative attacks. "We could have a situation where we set gender and race against each other and we could lose the unlosable election in the bonfire of the vanities," he said.

It seems the sniping is hurting both Clintons – Hillary and Bill – far more than it is Obama. But looking back over past campaigns, don’t the candidates usually patch things up? Do these primary fights really weaken the standard bearer THAT much in the end? Can you think of an election when the candidate who lost did so because of a bruising primary battle?

DOTTY: The Carter folks are still mad at Kennedy for 1980 and blame him for the loss. And Sen. Kennedy himself has been warning about divisions in the party. But part of why these fights happen at the convention is often because one or both are flawed or have been unable to make their case conclusively. The fight may be more a symptom than a cause.

LESLEY: Let me ask you about the coming Primary in Pennsylvania. What do you make of Obama’s difficulty in winning over the blue-collar workers there – the coveted "Reagan Democrats’? Is it that they simply love Hillary? Or, is there some racism there? Or, is it something else entirely?

DOTTY: All of the above. What I love about the campaign in Pennsylvania is that it is forcing Obama to talk to these voters and come off his perch. The New York Times reported this morning that the word "blather" originated here and I think it will be a great test of Obama’s ability to expand his reach. Clinton has been connecting with blue-collar voters throughout the campaign because of message and language. A Pew poll last week found some of these voters holding racially intolerant positions and even found a chunk of them believing Obama is a Muslim. This is an opportunity for Obama as well as a test.

LESLEY: I assume, then, from what you say, that so far Obama has not made much headway with that group. Let me point out something that came home to me this morning … If Hillary and Obama slog it out until the convention, which is in late August, there will be only two months to make up, and draw the party together …

Beyond the presidential contest, Dotty, what are you hearing about the Congressional races. Do the Democrats have a chance to get that 60-plus-one margin in the Senate?

DOTTY: Almost no one is hearing about anything but the presidential race. But if money is an indicator this should be a big year for Democrats. They are out-fundraising the Republicans at every level and so far 29 Republicans in the House have said they won’t run again. A bloody fight through the summer could distract from these contests — which is one reason I think superdelegates will move to anoint someone by early July if not before.

LESLEY: Let’s talk about the Republicans. I’m just reading what feels like my 20th major, long article on McCain’s out-of-control temper. This one’s in Newsweek. I wonder if you think the issue of McCain’s temperament will gain traction. And more important: can any issue really take off unless and until it’s demonstrated on Youtube? So far, there are no real McCain blow ups on video.

DOTTY: All it has to take is one — on camera. Reporters and the public have been primed to expect a McCain "moment.” But I agree until there is video it won’t take hold. And then the issue is: Does this temper make him dysfunctional or just another Harry Truman and another sign of his authenticity.

LESLEY: Final question. Did you see my interview with Al Gore on "60 Minutes?" I’ve had a flood of comments about how relaxed and content he seems. I guess you could say there’s nothing that a Nobel and a barrel of money that you make on your own won’t cure! Do you take him at his word that he doesn’t want to be the "honest broker?” Have you seen any sign that he might endorse one or the other (everyone assumes he leans to Obama ….), or that he would consider being the dark horse at the convention?

DOTTY: I have always believed Al Gore hates politics and loves the globe. He knows presidential talk gets him into the news but he wants that publicity to sell his global warming message. He knows there have been studies showing that some of the reason his global warming message has stalled is because Republicans have identified it with him, which is why the new ads feature people like Pat Robertson and Newt Gingrich.

Having said that, of course, he also has an ego and if he could be handed the nomination, he’d grab it. And if he could be the one to broker peace between Hillary and Barack he would deserve a lifetime Nobel.

69 Reader Comments (so far…) Sign In or Register to comment

beth willis
Maurine, what would you have your daughter respond on a national stage about your husband’s infidelity? Chelsea was confronted by the lowest common denomination in the press in an attempt to make her appear less mature and more reactionary. How does the question help advance the US out of the perilous situations of today. What did you want Chelsea to say: bad Daddy. I don’t recall the Bush girls being asked about their father’s ignorance and megalomania.
By beth willis on 04/05/2008 3:31 am
Star Lawrence
You don’t think any little teensy percentage of her problems is coming from Keith Olbermann blatting on against her as Mr Burns from “The Simpsons,” or the constant showing of fake video games of her and Chelsea dodging fire, or the continuous spew of questions to talking heads along the lines of: “What can you add that is against Senator Clinton?” Come on! If she does not get this, she won’t have lost it fair and square. (I watch 4 hrs a day of news.) Yes, she has done things I wish she hadn’t. Top among them: Saying nice things about Senator McCain. Don’t get me started there.
By Star Lawrence on 04/02/2008 3:25 pm
IAM Woman
If anyone started on my daughter about a stupid thing my husband did, I’d kick some ass! It’s no one’s business. Who knows, the dirt on Obama or his wife is still out there …….
By IAM Woman on 04/02/2008 5:35 pm
wise woman
I dont follow politics much but lately the race has been interesting to say the least. Im from Pa, and from small town in n central Pa, and believe me when I say “the rednecks are still around.” There is still alot of prejudice from the older folks who wouldnt vote for a black, woman for president. Yes we should be over that, but will not be for along time. Thank God I raised my kids to overcome that, but not all people did. We (not me) in some parts of Pa,still ride around with a bug shield. I just hope someone doesnt take it upon themself to shot mr. O.
By wise woman on 04/03/2008 9:41 am
evie grossman
So here’s my question - should Obama get the nomination, don’t you think that quite a few life long democratic voters will vote for McCain because, whether we want to admit it or not, certain people will not be able to vote for an Afro American or they feel that Obama is too liberal; on the otherhand if Hillary gets the nomination, there will be a large group of voters who just won’t vote at all (but they could not in any way shape or form vote for McCain) - so the connundrum is - should we hope for the best that even though there will be voters switching to McCain, Obama gets the nomination or would be better off if Hillary gets the nomination, and certain voters just won’t vote
By evie grossman on 04/03/2008 10:20 am
Lynne Alexander
The media has hammered Hillary about her “ducking under fire” story as they should. However, I read that Obhama quoted a story “he read” that was never published and yet I have seen reference to it once and never on TV. To see the media dismantle Hillary’s bid for the White House is a horror story to watch. I have not been a Hillary supporter since her vote for the war which I could not fathom given her background and insiders knowledge. As woman we all know, that with the realtionship the Clintons have, Hillary was privey to much of the Clinton White House years and does have a deeper understanding of what goes on behind the scenes than Obhama. I am concerned about the role of the media in swaying public opinion unfairly. The glass ceiling does exist. As accomplished women, you know how hard it is to push past road blocks to success. If Hillary is not suited for the presidency than it should be on merit. No one is talking about her impressive record as Senator. How about that? Who I will vote for is not clear at the moment. Hillary is not my choice but I am having a hard time not wanting to support her given the media’s crucifiction of her no matter what she does. How about important issues facing our nation instead of why Hillary would put herself in a postion to be ridiculed. Why aren’t we in an uproar over government bail out of coroprations, or banks charging interest rates that in 1970 would have been illegal? “It’s the economy stupid” should once more be our rallying cry. The media got George Bush elected both times (with the help of the Supreme Court). My concern is, why is Obhama being pitted against Hillary. Is it because the power brokers think that McCain will win against Obhama given our race phobias? God forbid!
By Lynne Alexander on 04/04/2008 5:41 am
Blanche Larson
Lynne, why MR. Obhama? Look to History. When the ladies of Seneca Falls argued with Fredrict Douglas over who should be given the vote, black MEN or women they lost and black MEN got the vote before women did. “Balls said the Queen if I had two I’d be King” Just put Hillary for Queen and President for King.
By Blanche Larson on 04/04/2008 8:49 am
ann dillon
having read over the comments so far all i can say is -ridiculous. women should vote for women-absurd-people should vote for the person that they believe will do the best job for this country and it’s citizens-regardless of race, gender, age , party affliation etc.-haven’t we gotten beyond this nonsence yet?-it really embarasses me to hear so many women and womens groups taking this small minded approach to this campagin-i thought we have been bragging about the voice of reason and decency that we were going to bring to public discussions- as far as the big bad media picking on poor little hil-give me a break -she said she dodged bullets-she didn’t -that should have been reported-just like obamas ministers antics should have been reported-the difference is he answered with a thoughtful and thought-provoking speech about and issue that long ago should have been addressed and she whinned that she was being picked on which by the way she has a history of doing right back to the white house years-which way is it -is she the tough warrior or the poor little victim -can’t have it both ways. both candidates have been on the end of favorable and unfavorable stories-i am more interested in how that is handled. as far as ms sussmen is concerned she should really get her facts straight-i don’t care if she supports hilary mccain or humpty-dumpty obama has never been accused of taking kick-backs or any other kind of ciminal behavior -in fact if she was from chicago as i am she would know that the dealings that obama has had with resko have been thoroughly investegated, reported on and scrutinized by the media and the courts and obamas name has been completely cleared -again he could have cried nasty old media -again he was honest and straight forward and admitted that his decisions were “bonehead” -bonehead mam-not criminal-also by the way anyone who has done business or politics in chicago has some aquaintance with resko-including the clintons-he was a mover and shaker about town until he decieded he was bigger than the law. as far as chelsea is concerened -it was not the media who posed the question about monica but a kid on a college campus and she handled it badly-a proper answer whould have been -my parents have dealt with that issue and its over-my mother is talking about important things she wants to do for this country -that is what i am here to talk about-but no -i’m afraid we heard the whine yet again-I think that there are three very good candidates running for president this time -i happen to feel that in the course of this campagin -but even before this campagin -in his books and in his life work obama has exhibited a strength of charater that is rarly seen in our public figures-americans are so disallutioned with their government-people think it really doesn’t matter who is in office-i think that obama is right -that this can change -not by one politican trying to change it but by the american people investing in the process and getting involved-clinton totes her connections to the washington power base-thats what i want to see go away-mccain believes in the big bad enemy that must be stopped-i’m going with obama -but whoever you go with -it should be for the right reasons not silly politics as usual
By ann dillon on 04/05/2008 1:35 pm
CAROLINE MuLVEY
I agree with most of you. This should not be an election about race or gender. This should be about which candidate is best to run this country. Which one is best for all of us. Personally I do not want McCain in office. I am afraid he would want to continue the war. I have thought about who I think would be the best, and at this time I think is would be Obama, But it is not the end yet and things could change, so I will watch the news and read the paper and when it is time to make a final decision then I will do who is better for all of us. I enjoyed reading all of your opinions.
By CAROLINE MuLVEY on 04/06/2008 10:52 am