© Landov

I had one of our regular pre-primary conversations with Dotty Lynch, former pollster, now executive-in-residence at American University in Washington, DC, and CBS news political consultant. We talked about Tuesday’s elections in Indiana and North Carolina – and beyond.

LESLEY: Dotty, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll is out this morning. What do you see in these new numbers about Obama and Clinton that you find interesting?

DOTTY: Two big headlines: The fact that they BOTH beat John McCain by double-digit margins and the fact that while most voters say the Rev. Wright brouhaha has not affected them, 44 percent say they know people who will be less inclined to vote for Obama because of it.

LESLEY: Does that 44 percent mean that Obama probably faces considerable resistance because of Wright, even though voters won’t admit that’s the reason they’re voting against him?

DOTTY: I think that’s exactly correct. Most voters don’t want to admit bias, so pollsters generally ask questions about race in an indirect manner to get underneath racial attitudes.

LESLEY: I’m curious about Catholic voters, who have been trending to Clinton in the primaries. How do you read their "issues" with Obama? Is the Rev. Wright a major factor? And how do you see the Rev. John Hagee affecting the general election? He’s the San Antonio televangelist who has endorsed McCain. He says the Catholic Church is "the great whore" and "a false cult system." Will that rub off on McCain?

DOTTY: For some reason Hagee has not received the attention in the media that Wright has … maybe because he is not as close personally to McCain as Wright is, or was, to Obama. Or maybe because most reporters don’t think he reflects McCain’s world view. But I assume that the Democrats will do their best to make Hagee a household word by the time the general election comes.

As for Catholic voters, I am not sure why they are so pro-Clinton/anti-Obama. In part, it reflects the fact that Catholic Democrats are more blue-collar and that may account for it. There may be some racial element, too, but I think it is her economic message that is winning them over and a closer cultural connection to her than to Obama.

LESLEY: On Hagee, I’m beginning to see more coverage of him and his anti-Catholic statements. Frank Rich wrote about him in Sunday’s New York Times, and there’s a story about him and McCain in this week’s Newsweek. Don’t you think if Obama is the nominee, and Republicans play the Rev. Wright tapes over and over, that Hagee will become a big issue? Do you think the two pastors will cancel each other out?

DOTTY: While the Democrats and liberal columnists will try it, Hagee wasn’t McCain’s pastor, nor did he marry him and baptize his children. They do reflect the religious extremes of both parties, but I think Obama’s problem is not just the politics of the black liberation movement but his personal connection to Rev Wright. One other issue about Catholics to keep in mind: many Catholics voting in Democratic primaries are Hispanic. This is a group that heavily favors Clinton, and may have "problems" with Obama.

LESLEY: Oh … good point. Something else I’m curious about is Republicans voting in Tuesday’s primaries. I know they can just walk in and get a ballot in the Democratic primary in Indiana. Do you expect many will take advantage of that? And what do you think their motives will be. Hillary was asked about Rush Limbaugh urging his audience on who to vote for, and she joked about it — and brushed it off. It does appear that what Limbaugh wants is – in the words of one pundit – "to keep the chaos (among the Dems) going."

DOTTY: We will be looking for that in the exit polls, but I think most Republicans who vote will do it for serious reasons. But if Republicans make up the margin of victory for Clinton, it could diminish the impact of her win. Though her campaign will use it to show her "electability." Ah, spin.

LESLEY: For what it’s worth, I think if Clinton manages to get a big chunk of Republican votes, she can legitimately use it sell her viability. But don’t you think it’s more likely Republicans – if they do vote, will vote AGAINST Clinton?

DOTTY: Since her health-care days, Hillary Clinton has been a polarizing figure. Republicans seemed to make up their minds in the mid-90s that she was not for them. Her negatives remain high among Republicans so her hope in a general election is to try to woo independents and swing voters. In Indiana, however, Evan Bayh — who has campaigned hard for Clinton — has been able to capture a chunk of Republican voters and they might be persuaded to vote for her on the issues and because they think Obama is even more liberal than she is.

LESLEY: What do you make of the polls that show an overwhelming antipathy among Americans to the Republican Party … and yet when pollsters match Hillary or Obama up against McCain, the numbers are pretty close?

DOTTY: The bad news for John McCain is that only 27 percent give the GOP positive ratings. But because he is known as a maverick who has not always toed the Republican party line, he may have some credibility in distancing himself with some of the Bush administration’s failures. Today’s CBS/New York Times poll, however, shows him with a low favorability rating and trailing the Democrats by 11 or 12 points. So I think some more maverick moments may be in his future.

LESLEY: Ha ha!! What about young voters? They — traditionally — they tend not to show up on election day. This year, though, their turnout has been called “high” – and lopsidedly pro-Obama. Give us a sense of HOW much they’re showing up to vote – and could these under-30s tip one of the primaries on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina?

DOTTY: In Iowa they jumped from being 17 percent of the electorate in the Dem primary to 22 percent and they voted 55 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Clinton. In a few states (like California), where young voters were also Hispanic, Clinton captured half of them.

She does much better with young women than young men, but Obama’s percentage has been between 49 percent and 77 percent in the states so far. Tomorrow we expect the areas around Chapel Hill in North Carolina and South Bend in Indiana to be a good test to see if Obama has managed to get out that young college vote that worked for him in Iowa.

LESLEY: Do you think 22 percent is "high"? What percent are – say – women over 60?

DOTTY: Mark Penn Clinton’s former strategist dismissed the impact of young people in Iowa saying they looked more like Facebook than like voters and she got her clock cleaned, in some states like Georgia that quadrupled their share of the electorate. You ignore 22 percent of the voters at your peril as Penn found out in Iowa.
About 18 percent to 19 percent of Iowa Dem voters were older women. Thirty-one percent were over 60 compared to 22 percent under 30 … but Hillary’s message of experience was a turnoff to the young folks. She has since broadened her message to try to attract more young voters but he is still their generation compadre.

LESLEY: So, if the younguns repeat a 22-percent turnout, they could offset the 19 percent older-women. Huh.

Another question is: BILL! How do you think he’s affecting the voters in Indiana and North Carolina? He’s been relegated to the "back country," what I like to call Dan Quayle-land. That’s where George Bush the First banished his Vice-Presidential running mate when he became an embarrassment … places with no TV markets! The difference is that wherever Bill Clinton goes, the press finds him (unlike Quayle who managed to stay under the radar for weeks on end). Is Bill a help? Or a hindrance at this point?

DOTTY: Bill’s doing NINE events today! From the national perspective he seems to be a negative — only getting coverage when he acts out. But he draws huge crowds in the small towns he visits, and I think he may have helped craft Hillary’s new image as someone who connects with blue collar and rural voters.

LESLEY: Oh, that’s so interesting. Final question: What should we be looking for in the exit polls Tuesday night, to guide us for the rest of the primary season?

DOTTY: If Hillary is able to come close in North Carolina and pick off even a little of Obama’s African American vote, that would be huge. But the biggest story would be a win by Obama in Indiana as well as North Carolina. That would probably bring a flood of superdelegates his way and effectively end the race. A split decision — which is expected — would mean the race goes on until June 3.

LESLEY: Enlightening, as always.