07/30/2010 10:00 am
Sheconomics
We Need More Chelsea Optimism
Chelsea Clinton/Image courtesy of Robin Platzer/Twin Images
Chelsea Clinton is getting married; you may have heard. She is, of course, not alone. We are in high wedding season; more than two million one-somes will become twosomes this year, or about seven individuals in 1,000 – one of the highest marriage rates in the developed world.
Surely, saying "I do" is one of the happiest expressions of optimism in the future, especially given prevailing misconceptions about the divorce rate. While most think that half of all marriages end in divorce, the truth is more encouraging. In fact, the divorce rate apparently peaked in the 1970s when more women entered the workforce, earning money that would ultimately give them greater freedom to divorce. Also, divorce laws changed, making it easier financially to separate. These days, the divorce rate for young people marrying between the ages of 20 and 24 is under 40%. For a thirty-year-old woman – like Chelsea – the chance of divorce shrinks to 8.5% – not a bad gamble at all.
Apparently, waiting to get married makes sense. Of course, it can be taken to extremes. The 92-year-old mother of a friend of mine recently married a younger man – of 89. On their big day, the happy couple forgot (not necessarily in this order) the marriage license (they actually didn’t have one), their plane tickets and their passports. No one said it would be easy.
But talk about optimism! We need more of that faith in the future. The most recent Conference Board survey showed that consumer confidence slipped again in June, to the lowest level since February. Both near-term and longer-term expectations soured, as Americans fretted about deficits, the still-weak job market and May’s slipping stock and home prices. On the brighter side, a survey conducted recently by Citigroup shows that women are more optimistic than men, with 56% of women thinking that business is on the mend, compared to only half of all men. Moreover, 66% of the women surveyed (and 62% of men) were upbeat about their personal financial situation. Since women make some 72% of all purchases, that’s good news.
There are, to be sure, other bright spots in the economic picture. Recent profit reports have been encouraging, generally coming in ahead of expectations, and we’ve seen credit markets normalize as the Euro crisis has moved off the front pages. Unhappily, every time the near-term outlook for growth improves, we are reminded that serious longer-term issues remain. Nightly news reports feature the ongoing argument over our budget problems, highlighting the divide in how our political and financial leaders think we should tackle our rising debt. Make no mistake: These are serious and reasonable disagreements. No one – on the left or the right – has all the answers. It’s not all political hoo-ha.
Americans watching these debates are uneasy. They are pretty sure that we are in untested waters, and they are right. They also doubt that our leaders know what to do. The Congressional Budget Office released this week an extremely sobering piece on the "Long Term Budget Outlook". The report projects that spending on "mandatory health care programs will grow from roughly 5% of GDP today to about 10% in 2035 and will continue to increase thereafter." It estimates that Obamacare will "increase federal spending in the next ten years and for most of the following decade" – and that’s even assuming that the Congress goes along with cuts in doctor pay, for instance, that would keep costs down. So much for "bending the curve" on medical outlays.
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Liz, your last line speaks volumes! However, to get back to your first paragraph, optimism and confidence in the future remains a necessity for all. Young (and old) people will still fall in love and marry, babies are born everyday, the seasons change and time marches on.
Americans need to be good citizens and continue to use the power of their vote on each and every election day in their community. Our votes will express our continuing confidence in our country’s future.
Dear Liz,
Hillary Clinton still owes Mark Penn thousands of dollars for her campaign. Seems to me that spending $2.5 million on her daughter’s wedding while owing someone this amount of money is breathtaking. I’ve heard she wants her debt retired when during her campaign the Clinton’s net worth was listed at $35 million. I am happy for Chelsea Clinton that has found the right life partner. Although the wedding, in my opinion, resembles more of a circus than an intimate event with family and friends I’m sure Chelsea will be a beautiful bride complete with Mommie letting her hair grow out and Daddy losing the 15 pounds. (shake head)
I recently read an interesting article that England is now considering private health insurance. The cost for their healthcare keeps rising and rising and the taxes continue to go up. Obamacare will do the same. This should be a wake up call to Americans! Senator Olympia Snowe from Maine delivered a message to Obama urging him to give up his deadline before this bill was passed so that bipartisan negotiators in the Senate Finance Committee could craft a new reform plan that does more to control costs and that "it would be prudent for the President to be patient." But, of course, President Obama paid no attention and now we have the CBO figures that the cost will be unsustainable. President Obama doesn’t care….he managed to get his legacy healthcare bill approved and that’s all that matters to our radical President.
While this administration continues to bring the reputation of the United States down to new lows, it has just been announced that China is in second place for the biggest world economy. President Obama has spent the past 18 months enhancing the deep recession by tampering with its natural ability to come back on its own. That’s what you get when you elect an incompetent man to the highest office in our country. Which begs the question, "Why did he do this to our country?"
Liz, we would have to ask the small businesses in our country just how this administration has helped them. That’s where we’ll get the truth. This administration not only distanced themselves from The Chamber of Commerce they have blatantly ignored private sector job growth.
Americans have stopped spending and that’s a huge problem in our country. We need to ask ourselves why that is. The answer is that they have lost confidence in our administration’s ability to get anything right. President Obama has polarized our country. Still, he finds time to go on The View talk show to feed his ego and get himself pumped up. President Obama seems to be more concerned about continuing in his campaign mode than actually doing something worthwhile for Americans.
I want him out of our White House. He is a very dangerous man to be leading our country when he ignored the one thing that would turn the recession around….our largest employer of jobs. That spells I N C O M P E T E N T and that translates to financial collapse for our country.
Please, everyone vote in November and in 2012. If you are unhappy with this administration, your vote is your most valuable weapon. All it takes is you to get the progressives out of the White House. Stand up for America!
Thank you for responding, Kimberley, but with all due respect you know nothing about me.
The President ignored the small businesses last year and passed a massive stimulus package upwards of $860 billion and it didn’t work. Obama has put our country in debt by doing all of the wrong things for this country. It is you who is misinformed.
By the way, President Obama needs all the support he can get to take our country to a Third World status. If that’s what you want for America then please continue your support not that it will do much good after November of this year.
You are absolutely right KimberlyFrey. Our President has not polarized this country. The fact that he is black, bright and espouses progressive ideas has been polarizing to this country. Namely people have been and are choosing to fight him because he is black, bright and has progressive ideas. That’s the people’s choice. President Barack Obama was born black, bright and with "progressive" ideas. Something he really does not have much control over, especially the black part. And that, I regret to have to have to witness still in 2010, is a real stinger!
PS: "Progressive" as it refers to social policies is taught pretty much all over the world in schools of social policy and economics as a "good thing".
".our largest employer of jobs."
What is an employer of jobs? Did I miss something here?
Those loans are only TARP III….unfunded other than by more debt and designed to control more banks! Why not they have control over finances, auto companies, student loan programs…
hat we small business do not need is just loans..we need customers!!!
As Liz states above we need CONFIDENCE in the future to give those with money a reason to invest or spend.
I will say the Clinton wedding stimulated the economy in some respects…the cake alone hopefully helped a small business..but I suspect instead it went to a large already successful elite bakery.
All business are scared to hire anyone when we have no idea what new tax will be created in the future.
Obama pats himself on the back saying he is helping small business with these loans while creating more espenses with the other hand.
Guess who will pay the bill of the new IRS reporting madates of Obamacare….( a 1099 for each vendor or company they do business with over the year).??? Is that what we need a loan to pay for?
SJMorgan—If employers chose not to hire because of fear of a "future" tax, then one might wonder how they got up the nerve to hire anyone over the past 50 years, when new taxes have been levied, old taxes have been abolished, and "future" taxes have been considered decade after decade.
I believe that small businesses would be willilng to hire if they had more customers or were able to secure loans. Customers would have money to spend if large companies put more people back to work and large banks would loan more money.
It seems that small businesses could use government loans at a time when big business and big banks are willing to hold on to their money or give it out in the form of huge salaries or bonuses, instead of hiring the unemployed or loan to small businesses.
How, in good conscience, can Congress fight to keep tax cuts for the wealthy and refuse to loan money to small businesses struggling in this recession? How does that make any sense? The argument that tax cuts for the wealthy creates jobs doesn’t seem to be having a positive impact on the jobless rate at the present time.
aliceruth….have you gone to a bank to secure a business loan in your lifetime?
Do you think they are going to advance you a boatload of cash if you said "I do not have the customers now but if I hire a staff then I will be ready for when they come?" Lord only know how long that will be…..
We tried to get a loan from a TART reciepiant using the equity in our equipment as collatteral and were told "we don’t want you equipment" the "strings" attached to TARP by the government that gave them the funds was to not make any further "risky" loans..does that sound risky to you in this fragile economy???
If you did hire the staff in advance and the sales did not appear you would be laying them off again as soon as the funds run out….
Getting rid of the current Bush tax cutrs only tightens the screws even more than they are.
The fastest way to put more money in peoples hands?….
Suspend the Federal withholding tax for a period of time which the Republicans have suggested over and over as ammendments in bills but the Dems will have nothing to do with. They would rather get their fingers in the banks and control what they do. That is what business finds offensive.
This 1099 rule for Obamacare is invasive. In essence it creates work for accountants, costs for preparation and mailing to the business It also allows the government to actually audit the finances of a PRIVATE business when they do not even have a system in place to cross check the forms from business to business.
It send a message LOUD an CLEAR to businsess We do not trust what you send us now we want to know every company and person you do business with..so give us another form ( so much of for paperwork reduction act) that tells us how much you paid to them.
What is next..the government telling us you can get a better price with our government owned services…or you are spending to much we think for you phone services…
Of course then they can come back and say we now need to expand the IRS even more and hire a bunch more Government employees to process these forms .
Another WASTE of TIME and TAX MONEY!!!
Banks are not loaning money ( even if they had it from the Goverment) unless you have a contract in had that would give them the CONFIDENCE they need to get the money back with interst!
No one knows at this time what the actual cost to business will be of Obamacare..it also changes every year. And rest assured it will not get cheaper over time…no government program ever has………
I have secured several business loans from banks "in my lifetime", and paid them all off. I know that many large banks are not loaning to small businesses right now. I question the motives of some.
I believe that smaller banks in local communities are going to be friendlier to small businesses than larger banks are. It has been my experience that smaller banks, whose officers know you, are more likely to support your business model because it services your community and provides jobs for local residents, which, in turn, spend money and bank locally.
I also think that small businesses are burdened by redundant, unnessesary reporting requirements. I’m not in favor of additional reporting requirements.
It’s a stressful time for all small business owners. We have an uphill battle trying to keep our businesses open during this recession. How we are taxed in this country is a complex, difficult issue for small businesses and individuals who can’t afford law firms to help them avoid paying, the way corporations can. Tax equity is an issue that should be addressed, but small business owners don’t have the clout that corporations have, and we never will.
We all have to support those in government who we trust to try to do the right thing, but knowing who to trust is not as easy as it should be. I don’t believe that there is a representative from my state or district that truly gives a damn about small businesses—there’s no payoff for them. So I expect that tax legislation will continue to benefit corporations and to be a burden to small business owners.
"who we trust "….My state has ONE Greg Waldon..but he has a difficult time working witht he rest of the turkeys!
I concerns me greatly when we have a Congress and an administration than has never run a lemondade stand much less a business!!!
SJ, how true! Did you hear the good news? A judge in Virginia threw out the government’s mandatory Obamacare countersuit! In Virginia no one can force you to buy health insurance. What a victory! 20 more states to follow!
It’s unconstitutional to force Americans to buy anything.